1. 2008-09 Climate Recap and Outlook for Winter 2009-10 Eric Salathé JISAO Climate Impacts Group University of Washington

2. Recent Climate News: Global Temperatures From NASA GISS

3. Recent Climate News: Arctic Sea Ice

5. Recent Climate News: CLIMATECHANGE Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions COPENHAGEN 2009, 10-12 March CO2 Emissions http://climatecongress.ku.dk/

6. Recent Climate News: CLIMATECHANGE Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions COPENHAGEN 2009, 10-12 March Global Temperature

7. Recent Climate News: CLIMATECHANGE Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions COPENHAGEN 2009, 10-12 March Sea Level

8. U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Departures During the Last 30 and 90 Days 30-day (ending 26 Sept 2009) temperature departures (degree C) Last 30 Days 30-day (ending 27 Sept 2009) % of average precipitation 90-day (ending 27 Sept 2009) % of average precipitation 90-day (ending 26 Sept 2009) temperature departures (degree C) Last 90 Days

9. Mountain Snow and Precipitation Salmon Meadows (Northeast Cascades) Central Cascades Northeast Cascades

10. U.S. Drought Conditions

13. El Niño Outlook El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 28 September 2009

14. Niño Region SST Departures ( o C) Recent Evolution

15. NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5°C. La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to - 0.5°C. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons. CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 SST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5°C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.

16. ONI ( o C): Evolution since 1950 El Niño La Niña neutral The most recent ONI value (June – August 2009) is +0.7 o C.

17. Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 14 Sept 2009). Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10. The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.

18. The seasonal outlooks combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture, and, when appropriate, the ENSO cycle. U. S. Seasonal Outlooks October – December 2009

19. The seasonal outlooks combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture, and, when appropriate, the ENSO cycle. U. S. Seasonal Outlooks January – March 2010

20. U.S. Precipitation Departures (mm) and Frequency of Occurrence (%) for El Niño during Oct.-Dec. FREQUENCY (right panel) indicates the percentage of El Niño years that the indicated departure (left panel) occurred. For example, below-average seasonal precipitation over western Washington occurred in 70-80% of El Niño years – 13-14 out of 18.

21. U.S. Temperature Departures (°C) and Frequency of Occurrence (%) for El Niño during Oct.-Dec.

23. Summary El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.