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Modified over 5 years ago
Overview Northern hemisphere extra-tropics El Niño Seasonal Climate – Winter 2009-10 Mike Blackburn Seasonal Climate Discussion, 14 April 2010
Winter in the UK DJF averages Reading: T max, T min DJF 0910 Temperature Mean 1.6°C 2.1°C below 1971-2000 average Precipitation (%) Total 249mm 75% of average Mike Stroud
European anomalies - DJF NOAA Climate Prediction Center TemperaturePrecipitation (% normal)
Surface air temperature December 2009January 2010February 2010 DJF average Persistence Warm Arctic + sub-tropics NOAA ESRL
Westerly winds – DJF climatology U 250hPaU 850hPa NOAA ESRL
U 250hPaU 850hPa NOAA ESRL Westerly winds – DJF 2009/10
U 250hPaU 850hPa NOAA ESRL Westerly winds – DJF 2009/10 anomalies
Percentage of days with significant anomaly of same sign (>15m) Z500 – persistence…. NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Persistence (%) December 2009January 2010February 2010 Monthly Mean (dm)
First month for which 60% anomaly correlation reached 10 days for Europe and northern hemisphere …and February forecast skill www.ecmwf.int
Arctic Oscillation (AO) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Z500 P MSL P MSL anomaly NCEP reanalysis DJF 2009/10 Z500 anomaly
NAO and AO time-series NOAA CPC DJF average Arctic Oscillation (AO) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Z500 P MSL
El Niño NOAA ESRL SST anomaly DJF 09/10 OLR anomaly DJF 09/10 NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin
Recent European flooding events: atmospheric teleconnections and mechanisms Mike Blackburn (1), Brian Hoskins (2) and Yimin Liu (2) (1) Centre for Global.
Large-scale context for the UK floods in Summer 2007 Submitted to Weather, 14 May 2008 Mike Blackburn 1 John Methven 2 and Nigel Roberts 3 (1) National.
Why was Winter 2009/10 so cold? Mike Blackburn
Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, November 2013 Initial Conditions Issued 7 November 2013 Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update.
Climate Forecasting Unit Climate of the Month January-February 2012 Melanie Davis.
Validation of the NCEP CFS forecasts Suranjana Saha Environmental Modeling Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA/DOC.
UCSB Climate Research Meeting Dept. of Geography ICESS- UCSB October 16, 2009 Earth Space Research Group Climate Variations and Impacts: Monthly Discussion.
Regional Rainfall Forecast maps Summary
2009 global climate: A tale of five timeseries Global mean temperature El Ni ñ o / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Pacific Decadal Oscillation Annular modes.
Pei-Yu Chueh 2010/7/1. From 1948 to 2005 for DJF found decreases over the Arctic, Antarctic and North Pacific, an increase over the subtropical North.
Review of Northern Winter 2010/11
Climate Recap and Outlook for Winter Eric Salathé JISAO Climate Impacts Group University of Washington.
Excerpts of the AAAS Fiscal Year 2009 Appropriations Summary ( September 2008 summary: Congress has made little progress on the federal.
UK Met Office seasonal forecast “warm winter”, based on >33% probability of warm tercile. Statistical method (May SST) forecast NAO+ Dynamical method (GloSea4)
Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, October 2014 Initial Conditions Issued 14 October 2014 Forecast Background – ENSO update –
Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, July 2014 Initial Conditions Issued 14 July 2014 Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.
Friday Weather Discussion Clark Evans 27 March 2015.
Winter Outlook ( ) Winter Weather Forecast Conference OMSI / Oregon Chapter of the AMS 29 October 2011 Winter Weather Forecast Conference OMSI.
CPC Monthly Climate Review Feb 2014 Jin Huang Outline: 1.Global Patterns 2.Extremes and US anomalies 3.DJF Climate Attributions 4.Forecast Verifications.
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