Campaign Assessment 15 Feb 12

Campaign Assessment 15 Feb 12

MNF MISSION STATEMENT Peace Enforcement /Security Governance
On order, MNF XCG 12 conducts peace enforcement operations to compel the Arcadian Forces to cease all military actions and withdraw from Kuhistan and Free Mojave; when conditions allow transition security operations to Royal Kuhistan Armed Forces, and Free Mojave National Army, and/or a UN authorized force in order to restore stability and security in Pacifica. Peace Enforcement /Security END STATES 1. Arcadia cease all military actions and withdraw in Kuhistan 3. Sonora does not support Arcadia military operations THREAT - Arcadian forces are withdrawn from Kuhistan and Free Mojave FRIENDLY - MNF has transitioned security operations To Royal Kuhistan Armed Forces and Free Mojave National Army and/ Or a UN authorized force; ENVIRONMENT - restore stability & security in Pacifica Region. 4. Indirect fire from Arcadia 2. Arcadia cease all military actions and withdraw in Free Mojava Governance 5. RKAF readiness for transition 6. FMNA readiness for transition 7. UN Mission readiness for transition Humanitarian Assistance 8. Civil Populace supports MNF PEO and Transition to HN and/or UN control MNF’s Legitimacy/Communication Integration 9. Maintain International Support. 10. Maintain Regional Support. Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

Campaign End State Status
END STATE 1: Arcadian forces are withdrawn from Kuhistan and Free Mojave to positions in Arcadia. Arcadian armed forces are being severely degraded; some have started to withdraw; others are still opposing MNF operations. ARC forces have entered TDO territory. END STATE 2: The MNF has transitioned security operations to Royal Kuhistan Armed forces and Free Mojave National Army and/or a United Nations-authorized force. The RKAF and FMNA are unable to receive and sustain security operations at this Phase of the PEO operations. UN Authorized Force are in the planning stages. END STATE 3: The CTF has restored stability and security in the Pacifica Region. Arcadia’s aggression is still the cause of the instability in the region. However, MNF operations are on plan to restore stability and security in the Pacifica Region. 9 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb 9 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb 9 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

Overall Campaign Assessment for CG-12
FINDINGS: OVERALL ASSESSMENT: Planned desired effects are on track to be attained in some areas of AO Some conditions for success are being achieved; albeit with fog of war Results of the CG 12 MNF CONOPs are on plan to achieve 2 out of 3 elements of the intended end-state FRIENDLY ENDSTATE: Components effectiveness of task accomplishments have facilitated early transition in parts of the AO Signs of withdrawal by ARC forces may shape earlier than anticipated MNF transition operations RISKS: THREAT ENDSTATE: Significant MNF progress executing the CONOPs during Ph 2 and 3 in defeating ARC forces ARC forces in KUH / FM showing signs of withdrawing back to ARC ARC has suffered significant combat degradation; however, still retains sufficient offensive capability ENVIRONMENT ENDSTATE: Some conditions still exist which may prevent timely attainment of stability and security in Pacifica: Timeline of RIGHTEOUS CAUSE UN-authorized force readiness International border restoration ARC escalating conflict in region KUH & FM governance / sovereignty OPPORTUNITIES: RECOMMENDATIONS: Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

TRANSITION ASSESSMENT
DRILL DOWN

CAMPAIGN OPS SYN MATRIX PEACE ENFORCEMENT/SECURITY
FOPS (D+14 to D+28) PLANS (D+29 onwards) D+9 KEY FOCUS AREAS CURRENT OPS (C3) (D  D+13) Focus: Phase 3 Offensive ops and setting conditions for Ph IV PHASE 2 SEIZE THE INITIATIVE D TO D + 10 DAY PHASE 3 DOMINATE D + 10 TO D + 40 DAY PHASE 4 STABILIZE D + 40 TO D DAY FOPS (C35) (D+14  D+28) Focus: Phase 3 to 4 - Decision Pt 4 Campaign Assessment Task Assessment Contingency Planning ARC counter-attack and SONORA attack PLANS (C5) (D+28 onwards) Focus: Phase 4 onwards - Decision Pt 4 and 5 Transition Plans - Decision Pt 5 Campaign Assessment for Transition to UN forces/ Redeployment of MNF PHASE 5 TRANSIT D DAY onwards CONDUCT IO BY PHASES ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ STRATEGIC STRIKE CUT ARC LOC FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO OFFENSIVE OPS COORD & CONDUCT CMO RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER COUNTER SF / PSYOPS ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY SECURITY/ STABILITY OPS UNSUPFORPAC IN AO SECURITY/ STABILITY OPS SUPPORT TO HN RECOVERY OPS RE-DEPLOYMENT OF MNF PEACE ENFORCEMENT/SECURITY HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE GOVERNANCE LEGITIMACY DP 2. Launch Phase 2 (kinetic ops) Conditions. a. IO successful; gaining legitimacy for MNF Ops b. MNF postured, ready for Phase 2; APOD/SPOD secured c. Comprehensive and responsive ISR capability d. Battlefield shaped for MNF Ops DP 2A. Continue kinetic ops / shape conditions for Phase 3 a. Campaign and task assessments b. Contingency plans for ARC cattk DP 3. Launch Phase 3 (expel ARC from KUH/FM) Conditions. a. ARC TBM, SAM, C2 and airfields rendered ineffective b. AEZ/MEZ enforced; air/naval superiority c. ARC LOCs cut d. KELOWNA Port captured DP 3A. Continue offensive ops / shape conditions for Phase 4 a. Campaign and task assessments b. Plans for Stabilization and Transition DP 4. Launch Phase 4 (Stabilization ops after hostility) Conditions. a. ARC no longer in KUH and FM b. Security in AO established/ maintained c. Forces re-aligned and postured for stability ops d. Govt/NGO postured for HA ops e. Strong support from govermt and populace f. KUH and FM govt remain effective DP 5. Transit to Phase 5 (Redeployment) Conditions. a. Security in AO maintained b. UNSUPFORPAC postured for stability ops c. Positive HN sentiments/ support for MNF

Phase 2 to 3 Transition Assessment
Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize The Initiative PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition D-+6 SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 CNAVFOR Kelowna Port Seizure (MEU) MEZ maintained CJSOTF Ready to Support Strategic Strike CFACC Strategic Strike on TBMs, SAM and C2 sites. AEZ maintained Air Superiority in Decisive Area CARFOR Conduct POL with JSDF Establish Attack Position CMARFOR ARC combat pwr degraded Decision Point 3: -Transit to Phase 3 Conditions: MNF ready to escalate offensive ops ARC combat power projection and sustainment capabilities degraded JSDF redeploy out of AO Status of Assessment: Assessment on plan to transit to PH 3 on D+7 Issues remain: TBM sites Recommendation: Plan for transition to PH 3 on D+7 Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

Proposed MNF Mission Statement – Phase IV
ON ORDER, MNF IS TO CONDUCT SECURITY AND STABILITY OPERATIONS THROUGHOUT KUH AND FM, RENDER SUPPORT TO HN RECOVERY EFFORTS AND SET THE CONDITIONS FOR A FOLLOW ON UN AUTHORIZED FORCE IN ORDER TO ENABLE A STABLE NORTHERN PACIFICA. Security END STATES Condition 1: Security in AO established / maintained - ARC forces are withdrawn to positions in Arcadia as determined by UNSCR 2000. - MNF has established stability in Kuhistan and Free Mojave. – The conditions are set for transition to a United Nations authorized force. Condition 2: Peace agreement has been established / signed Governance Condition 3: KUH and FM governments remain effective Humanitarian Assistance Condition 4: Govt/NGO postured for HA Ops MNF Legitimacy Condition 5: Strong support from government and populace Condition 6: International and regional support On Plan Partially On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

Phase 3 to 4 Transition Assessment
D-+9 PH 0 Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize The Initiative PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 TASK ASSESSMENT CNAVFOR Conduct Mar interdiction; enforce MEZ Conduct / support HA ops CJSOTF Enable Coalition Support Team for SR/DA CFACC Conduct ISR / Aerial monitoring of International border Conduct Intra-theater airlift Enforce AEZ CARFOR / CMARFOR / Defeat ARC forces in zone / Compel ARC forces withdrawal in zone / Re-establish International Border / Support HN restoration of essential services / Support IDP management on order CONDITION ASSESSMENT Decision Point 4: Transit to PH 4 ARC forces in KUH & FM have been defeated ARC forces withdrawn from KUH & FM Int’l border restored Readiness of component forces for stabilization Cross-border hostility has ceased Status of Assessment: Offensive actions are progressing on plan Issues remain: Increase in IDP Recommendation: Continue planning for transition to PH 4 Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

ASSESSMENT DRILL DOWN

MOE1.1 1: ARC no longer in KUH and FM RECOMMENDATION:
OVERALL ASSESSMENT: ARC Forces are being severely degraded, but still occupy territory in KUH and FM. Also ARC still maintains robust offensive capability. RECOMMENDATION: MOE 1-1-1: I/D Arcadian armed forces (MR 1) (OPR: C2) I/D Arcadian military operating in Kuhistan air space: No ARC Air forces within KUH space I/D Arcadian military operating in Kuhistan territorial waters: In MR 3 MEZ I/D Arcadian military operating within the borders of Kuhistan: ARC retreating from KUH and FM I/D Arcadian attacks on Kuhistan from outside Kuhistan (indirect fire): No ARC attacks from outside KUH I/D Cyber attacks against Kuhistan systems (enabler) (OPR: C6) MOE 1-1-2: I/D Arcadian armed forces (MR 2) (OPR: C2) See above MOE 1-1-3: I/D Arcadian armed forces (MR 3) (OPR: C2) 9 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

IO TASKS Linked to (Effect 1)
Arcadia forces ceases all military actions and withdraw from Kuhistan. OVERALL ASSESSMENT: ARC Ground Forces continue to prepare and resupply forward elements within ARC and MOJ, and improve defensive positions. ARC has launched TBM at three different targets. RECOMMENDATION: IO MOP 1: Disrupt, degrade, or destroy C4ISR of ARC forces in KUH (OPR: C39) IO MOP 2: Discourage ARC of targeting civilians and infrastructure (OPR: C39) IO MOP 4: Degrade Arcadian morale and combat effectiveness (OPR: C39) IO MOP 3: Manage expectations of mission accomplishment timeline and subsequent reconstruction within the AO (OPR: C39) IO MOP 8: (both tangentially) Protect MNF C4I through electronic protect and CND (OPR: C39) 9 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

MOE1.1 Condition 2: Security in AO established / maintained
OVERALL ASSESSMENT: Security in AO are being established / maintained RECOMMENDATIONS: MOE : ARC agreed unconditional withdrawal of all ARC forces. (Issue of orders) (OPR: C2) MOE 1-2-2: Accounting of remaining ARC units and coordinated exit plan. (OPR: C2) MOE 1-2-3: I/D Arcadian attacks on FM from outside FM (indirect fire) (OPR: C2) All TBM launches intercepted by MNF Patriots 9 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

IO TASKS Linked to (Effect 2)
Arcadia ceases all military actions and withdraw from Free Mojave OVERALL ASSESSMENT: ARC Ground Forces continue to prepare and resupply forward elements within ARC and MOJ, and improve defensive positions. ARC has launched TBM at three different targets. RECOMMENDATION: IO MOP 1: Disrupt, degrade or destroy C4ISR of ARC forces in FM (OPR: C39) IO MOP 2: Discourage ARC of targeting civilians and infrastructure (OPR: C39) IO MOP 4: Degrade Arcadian morale and combat effectiveness (OPR: C39) IO MOP 3: Manage expectations of mission accomplishment timeline and subsequent reconstruction within the AO (OPR: C39) IO MOP 8: (both tangentially) Protect MNF C4I through electronic protect and CND (OPR: C39) 9 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

MOE1.2 Cease-fire has been established
OVERALL ASSESSMENT: Peace agreement being established. RECOMMENDATIONS: MOE 1-2-1: Arty Missiles system out of DMZ (OPR: C2) MOE 1-2-2: Buffer zone established between ARC & KUH and ARC & FM borders (15km each side). (OPR: C2) MOE 1-2-3:Cease-fire agreement signed between ARC, KUH and FM (POLAD) 9 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

MOE 2.1 KUH and FM governments remain effective
OVERALL ASSESSMENT:KUH and FM government remains effective. RECOMMENDATIONS: MOE 2-1-1: Governance leadership back in the AO (OPR: POLAD) MOE 2-1-2: Government services restored in AO (OPR: POLAD) MOE 2-1-3: Judicial system restored in AO (OPR: POLAD) MOE 2-1-4: Law enforcement agency ready in AO (OPR: POLAD) 9 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

MOE 3.1 Regional partners support MNF operations
OVERALL ASSESSMENT: Forces reconfig and postured for Stability Ops RECOMMENDATIONS: MOE 3-1-1: MOE 3-1-2: I/D Kuhistan support to MNF operations (OPR: POLAD, C2) KUH have offered use of their facilities and infrastructure for MNF operations MOE 3-1-3: I/D Free Mojave support to MNF operations(OPR: POLAD, C2) FM have offered use of their facilities and infrastructure for MNF operations MOE 3-1-4: I/D Isla Del Sol support to MNF operations(OPR: POLAD, C2) 9 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

IO TASKS Linked to Effect 9
Regional partners support MNF operations OVERALL ASSESSMENT: TDO, KUH and FM continue to support MNF operations RECOMMENDATIONS: IO MOP 6: Maintain international support for MNF Operations (OPR: C39) IO MOP 3: Manage expectations of mission accomplishment timeline and subsequent reconstruction within the AO (OPR: C39) 9 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

MOE3.1.2 Cathay does not support Arcadia military operations
OVERALL ASSESSMENT: Cathay continues to provide logistics and intelligence support to ARC, and continues to train ARC forces in country RECOMMENDATIONS: Continued diplomatic pressure to discourage support of ARC aggression MOE : I/D Diplomatic support to Arcadia (OPR: POLAD, C2) Unknown at this time MOE : I/D Intelligence support to Arcadia (OPR: POLAD, C2) MOE : I/D Military support to Arcadia (OPR: POLAD, C2) Cathay remains ARC’s main source of sophisticated arms MOE : I/D Economic support to Arcadia (OPR: POLAD, C2) 9 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

MOE3.1 Govt/NGO postured for HA Ops
OVERALL ASSESSMENT: Increased nos. of IDPs along LOCs. CMARFOR may be incapable of preventing civilian interference due to insufficient CA forces. RECOMMENDATIONS: Setup DC Assembly Areas in AOA. Integrate KUH military forces to conduct CMO in CMARFOR AO. MOE 3-1-1: Capacity of IDP camps to meet the demand of IDP (OPR: CMO) MNF setting up Displaced Civilian Assembly Areas (DCAAs) in AO to augment IHC efforts. MOE 3-1-2: Capacity of HA resources to meet projected demands of affected KUH populace. (OPR: CMO) Unknown at this time. Awaiting RFI feedback from UN & IHC. 9 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

IO TASKS Linked to Effect 8
Civil populace supports MNF PEO and transition to HN and/or UN Control OVERALL ASSESSMENT: Impending humanitarian crisis developing at 2 IDP camps i.e. JUNTARA & PULLMAN (overcrowding, inadequate medical facilities & petty crime issues). No request for military assistance as yet. RECOMMENDATIONS: IO MOP: Minimize civilians interference within the AO and garner local support for the MNF-CG mission (OPR: C39) 9 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

MOE 4.1 Strong support from government and populace
OVERALL ASSESSMENT: Forces reconfig and postured for Stability Ops RECOMMENDATIONS: MOE 4-1-1: 9 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

MOE 4.2 Strong support from government and populace
OVERALL ASSESSMENT: No indications of anything but support – at worst support is neutral RECOMMENDATIONS: MOE 4-2-1: UNSCR remains valid in Ph IV (OPR: POLAD) MOE 4-2-2: Peace agreement established (OPR: POLAD) MOE 4-2-3: Mandate of UN Mission with UNSUPFORPAC (OPR: POLAD) 9 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

Lines of Operations & Key Tasks

CJSOTF Key Tasks (PH 2) 3 PH 0 Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize
The Initiative PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition D-+6 SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 NSWTG T1: Conduct limited SR (TGO), DA, and limited UW P1: Degrade ARC IADS, C4ISR, and logistics P2: Motivate ARC forces to depart KUH SOTF KUH SOTF FM P2: Motivate ARC forces to depart FM Supporting Efforts CJSOAD CPOTF Status of Assessment: 1. xxxxx 2. xxxxxx. 3. xxxxxx Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

The Initiative PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition D-+8 SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 NSWTG T1: Provide support to seizure of Kelowna via SR, DA, and UW P1: Degrade ARC IADS, C4ISR, and logistics P2: Enable conventional forces clearing in North KUH SOTF KUH T1: Conduct SR (TGO), DA, and limited UW P2: Enable conventional forces clearing in Central KUH SOTF FM T1: Conduct limited SR (TGO), DA, and limited UW P2: Enable conventional forces clearing in FM Supporting Efforts CJSOAD CPOTF Status of Assessment: 1. xxxxx 2. xxxxxx. 3. xxxxxx Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

The Initiative D-+8 PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 NSWTG T1: Conduct counter ARC SOF operations P1: Defeat Arcadian SOF in KUH and FM T2: Enable DDR of UW forces P2: Support transition of UW forces to pre-conflict roles SOTF KUH P1: Defeat Arcadian SOF in KUH SOTF FM P1: Defeat Arcadian SOF in FM Supporting Efforts: CJSOAD CPOTF Status of Assessment: 1. xxxxx 2. xxxxxx. 3. xxxxxx Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

CFACC Key Tasks (PH 2) 3 PH 0 Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize
The Initiative D-+8 PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition D-+6 SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 MAIN EFFORT T1: Gain/Maintain Air Superiority (AS) in decisive locs P1: Enable MNF freedom of operations T2: Interdict ARC LOCs P2: Degrade ARC fielded forces resupply; isolate T3: Shape force entry operations P3: Enable friendly ground force offensive operations SUPPORTING EFFORT: T1: Enforce AEZ / Support MEZ enforcement P1: Compel ARC withdrawal / isolate ARC T2: Conduct ISR P2: Find, Fix, Track and Target ARC forces T3: Support SC and IO P3: Compel ARC withdrawal Supporting Efforts: CJSOAD CPOTF AI Air Refueling AEZ Status of Assessment: F-22 Grounded. ROE precluding strikes w/in ARC, prevents CFACC from attaining objectives against enemy SAM, C2 sites, and airfields Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

The Initiative D-+8 PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 MAIN EFFORT T1: Expand Air Superiority (AS) over KUH and FM P1: Enable MNF freedom of operations T2: Destroy ARC fielded forces P2: Attrit ARC fielded forces and force withdrawal SUPPORTING EFFORT: T1: Enforce AEZ / Support MEZ enforcement P1: Compel ARC withdrawal / isolate ARC T2: Conduct ISR P2: Find, Fix, Track and Target ARC forces T3: Intra-Theater airlift P3: Maintain resupply of MNF forces .. Supporting Efforts: DCA C2/ISR AI Air Refueling AEZ Status of Assessment: CFACC cannot attain strategic objectives under current ROE (ARC border crossing and engagement restrictions) On Plan Partially On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

The Initiative D-+8 PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 MAIN EFFORT T1: Maintain Air Superiority (AS) over KUH and FM P1: Enable MNF freedom of operations T2: ISR operations to monitor ARC forces P2: Ensure ARC forces withdrawal from KUH T3: Enforce AEZ P3: Deter ARC aggression SUPPORTING EFFORT: T1: Support MEZ enforcement P1: Deter ARC aggression T2: Intra-Theater Airlift P2: Sustain MNF forces / Support HA.. Supporting Efforts: DCA C2/ISR AI Air Refueling AEZ Status of Assessment: 1. xxxxx 2. xxxxxx. 3. xxxxxx Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

CNAVFOR Key Tasks (PH 2) 3 PH 0 Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize
The Initiative PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition D-+7 SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 MAIN EFFORT Support aggressive IO plan Enforce MEZ Mine Sweeping Operations Conduct Port Seizure Conduct surface, anti-submarine operations RADC duties Conduct strategic strikes Cut off ARC lines of communications Seamless MNF partner integration Provide Logistics support to CNAVFOR forces Status of Assessment: -Mine Sweeping Operations completed -ROK RLT will land in Kelowna following the completion of mine clearance operations. -ROK RLT has completely off loaded from ROKN shipping in Kelowna Port. -CNAVFOR will have met all conditions to transition to Phase III. Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

The Initiative PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition D-+7 SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 MAIN EFFORT Support aggressive IO plan Enforce MEZ Mine Sweeping Operations Conduct Port Seizure Conduct surface, anti-submarine operations RADC duties Conduct strategic strikes Cut off ARC lines of communications Seamless MNF partner integration Provide Logistics support to CNAVFOR forces Status of Assessment: -Mine Sweeping Operations completed -ROK RLT will land in Kelowna following the completion of mine clearance operations. -ROK RLT has completely off loaded from ROKN shipping in Kelowna Port. -CNAVFOR will have met all conditions to transition to Phase III. Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

The Initiative PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition D-+9 SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 MAIN EFFORT Support aggressive IO plan Enforce MEZ Conduct amphibious assault Conduct offensive operations Conduct MIO Conduct/Support HA operations Seamless MNF partner integration Status of Assessment: MEZ is secure MSA is secure 31MEU is available as MNF reserve Continue with robust ASW plan to defend against remaining ARC PTGs and SSs Escort JMSDF south of Portland to assist there redeployment. Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

The Initiative PH 3 Dominate D-+8 PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 MAIN EFFORT Maintain security in AO Facilitate transition of KUH back to legitimate government Conduct/Support HA operations if required. Status of Assessment: MEZ is secure MSA is secure 31MEU is available as MNF reserve Continue with robust ASW plan to defend against remaining ARC PTGs and SSs Escort JMSDF south of Portland to assist there redeployment. Resupply TLAM inventory Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

CMARFOR Key Tasks (PH 2) 3 PH 0 Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize
The Initiative PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition D-+6 SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 CONOPS: Intel: Begin collection on NAI Fires: Support MNF/CFACC ATO generations IO: Support MNF Strat Comm messaging LOG: Establish FOB Spokane ICW KUH; Provide CSS FP: Continue AD/CAP coverage of SPOD & FOB Maneuver: RTMC Division USMC RCT-e ROK RLT-7 (CNAVFOR) MAG-36 CLR-3 Status of Assessment: 1. xxxxx 2. xxxxxx. 3. xxxxxx Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

CMARFOR Key Tasks (PH 3 – Stage A)
Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize The Initiative PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition D-+8 SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 CONOPS: Intel: Continue collection on NAI Fires: Shape enemy forces in CMARFOR AO IO: Target enemy commanders with withdrawal options LOG:Provide CSS from CSSA Spokane FP: Continue AD/CAP coverage of SPOD & FOB Maneuver: RTMC Division USMC RCT-3 ROK RLT-7 MAG-36 (ME) CLR-3 Status of Assessment: 1. xxxxx 2. xxxxxx. 3. xxxxxx Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

CMARFOR Key Tasks (PH 3 – Stage B)
Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize The Initiative D-+8 PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 CONOPS: Intel: Collection on NAI Fires: Shape enemy forces vic CMF Obj 3. IO: Continue to target enemy commanders options LOG:Provide CSS from CSSA Spokane FP: Continue AD/CAP coverage of SPOD & FOB CMO: Conduct CMO Maneuver: RTMC Division USMC RCT-3 (ME) ROK RLT-7 MAG-36 CLR-3 Status of Assessment: 1. xxxxx 2. xxxxxx. 3. xxxxxx Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

CMARFOR Key Tasks (PH 3 – Stage C)
Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize The Initiative D-+8 PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 CONOPS: Intel: Collection on NAI Fires: Provide DS fires to ME, Target (C2, BAGs, Armor) IO: Confirm MNF intentions to restore KUH borders LOG:Provide CSS from CSSA Spokane FP: Continue AD/CAP coverage of SPOD & FOB CMO: Conduct CMO Maneuver: RTMC Division (ME) USMC RCT-3 ROK RLT-7 MAG-36 CLR-3 Status of Assessment: 1. xxxxx 2. xxxxxx. 3. xxxxxx Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

CMARFOR Key Tasks (PH 4) 3 PH 0 Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize
The Initiative PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition D-+8 SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 CONOPS: Intel: Collection on ARC Ph IV actions/intentions Fires: Provide on-call CAS/IDF as required IO: Confirm MNF intentions to restore KUH borders LOG:Provide CSS from CSSA Spokane FP: Continue AD/CAP coverage of SPOD & FOB CMO: Conduct CMO Maneuver: RTMC Division (ME) USMC RCT-3 ROK RLT-7 MAG-36 CLR-3 Status of Assessment: 1. xxxxx 2. xxxxxx. 3. xxxxxx Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

CARFOR Key Tasks (PH 2) 3 PH 0 Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize
The Initiative PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition D-+6 SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 CONOPS: Intel: Conduct ISR to detect ADA, TBM Fires: Destroy enemy ADA systems and ARC fire support FP: Protect units during move to Tactical AAs SUS: Occupy LSPs to support CARFOR attack in zone IO: Continue efforts to encourage ARC forces to W/D CARFOR HQ (ME) T1: Conduct FP vic AO T2: Conduct CMO Task Force West (SE) T1: Conduct FP vic Reno T2: Strategic strikes on TBM, SAM, C2 sites, airfields Task Force East (SE) T1: Conduct FP vic Boise Status of Assessment: 1. xxxxx 2. xxxxxx. 3. xxxxxx Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

CARFOR Key Tasks (PH 3A) 3 PH 0 Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize
The Initiative PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition D-+8 SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 CONOPS: Intel: Conduct ISR to id strategic & tactical EN assets Fires: Defeat enemy fire support FP: Patrol MSRs, insure FOM SUS: Establish LOCs and LSPs along MSR in AOR IO: Continue efforts to encourage ARC forces to W/D CARFOR HQ (SE) T1: Conduct PEO to include forcible entry ops & CMO Task Force West (ME) T1: Defeat ARC forces vic Obj 1 T2: Fix ARC forces vic Obj 2 Task Force East (SE) T1: Defeat ARC forces vic Obj 3 T2: Fix ARC forces vic Obj 4 Status of Assessment: 1. xxxxx 2. xxxxxx. 3. xxxxxx Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

CARFOR Key Tasks (PH 3B) 3 PH 0 Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize
The Initiative D-+8 PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 CONOPS: Intel: Identify EN disposition, detect movement of reserve Fires: Isolate OBJs 2, 4; fix ARC reserve Bde FP: MMS, AS, IR, L&O, PIO SUS: Extend LOCs; establish LSA to spt offensive ops IO: CARFOR HQ (SE) T1: Conduct PEO & CMO Task Force West (ME) T1: Block ARC reserve forces north of OBJ 1 T2: Defeat ARC forces at OBJ 2 Task Force East (SE) T1: Block ARC reserve forces northeast of OBJ 3 T2: Defeat ARC forces at OBJ 4 Status of Assessment: 1. xxxxx 2. xxxxxx. 3. xxxxxx Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

CARFOR Key Tasks (PH 3C) 3 PH 0 Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize
The Initiative D-+8 PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 CONOPS: Intel: Detect movement of reserve & IDPs Fires: Defeat EN fire support; Disrupt ARC attacks FP: MMS, AS, IR, L&O, PIO SUS: Provide CSS IO: Continue IO to encourage IDPs to remain in KUH CARFOR HQ (SE) T1: Conduct PEO & CMO Task Force West (ME) T1: Clear KUH territory to ARC border T2: O/O Defend KUH border Task Force East (SE) Status of Assessment: 1. xxxxx 2. xxxxxx. 3. xxxxxx Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

CARFOR Key Tasks (PH 4) 3 PH 0 Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize
The Initiative D-+8 PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 CONOPS: Intel: Identify remaining EN in KUH; monitor IDP movements Fires: Establish new FPOL along border FP: IR, L&O, MMS, AS, PIO SUS: Sustain the force; transition LOG to host nation IO: Increase support to Gov authorities in KUH and FM CMO: Conduct CMO CARFOR HQ (ME) T1: Establishment of policy for transfer of authority Task Force West (SE) T1: Maintain presence in AO Task Force East (SE) Status of Assessment: 1. xxxxx 2. xxxxxx. 3. xxxxxx Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

Back-ups

PH IV SYN MATRIX PHASE IV (STABILIZATION) 5 PHASE III (DOMINATE) PH V
Ver. 15 FEB 2012 PH IV SYN MATRIX C-Day= 1 Jan 2012 D-Day= 6 Feb 2012 STARTEX is D + 4 = 10 Feb 2012 Task DP Key Continuous Task Assessed Completion D + 11 (17 Feb) Commencement D + 12 (18 Feb) Projected Completion D + 100 Projected Completion of Stage A D + 19 (25 Feb) PHASE III (DOMINATE) PHASE IV (STABILIZATION) PH V Key Events Defeat ARC and enable cease-fire Re-estb Int’l Border Stage A: Re-alignment of Forces Stage B: Support HN Recovery Stage C: Support HA 5 Withdrawal of ARC Support HN Recovery Efforts (SE) Change Operational Reserve (31 MEU) Re-align, posture and defend Prepare for Ph IV Estb Policy for Transfer of Authority MNF Security Ops (ME) Support HA Efforts (SE) Defeat ARC in Sector BPT respond to SONORA aggression CARFOR Estb def ensive zone along int’l border and Security ops in sector Maintain APOD/ SPOD and LOC security within sector Support MNF Comms-integration (MCI)/IO Shaping for Ph IV Support HN for Recovery and HA efforts Estb border in Sector BPT respond to crisis Defeat ARC in Sector CMARFOR Shaping for Ph IV ARG/MEU Re-embark Maintain 31 MEU as operational reserve Secure maritime contiguous zone and SLOC Conduct Maritime Security and Interdiction Support MNF reqts; sealift, IAMD, ISR. CNAVFOR Support MNF reqts in Recovery and HA efforts Support grd manoeuvre (ISR/OCA/DCA/CAS) Maintain AEZ and air LOC Conduct air interdiction Support MNF reqts; airlift, IAMD, ISR. CFACC BPT for SONORA branch plans CJSOTF Conduct SR/DA/UW/HVT targetting Recover SR/DA elements Conduct counter-SOF and FID ops Conduct MISO and CMO ops Conduct DDR of NGM Endstate: ARC forces withdrawn to positions in ARC as determined by UNSCR 1997,1998 and MNF has established security and stability in KUH and FM, and conditions set for transition to a UN-authorized force. DP 4A – Unintended or Excessive CIVCAS/Collateral Damage DP 5 – Transition to Ph V DP 4B – Public Opinion/HN and International Sentiment has become negative DP 4C – Emergence of organized resistance/insurgency DP 4D – Indications of either a loss of KUH&FM Government Functionality or an Internal Conflict DP 4E – Threats against HN sovereignty DP 4F – Indications of a Loss of Mandate Authority to Conduct Operations DP 4G – Closure of APOD/SPOD and/or MNF ops/log hub

Campaign Assessment 15 Feb 12

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Campaign Assessment 15 Feb 12

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