Presentation on theme: "Pest Risk Analysis (PRA)"— Presentation transcript:
1Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) and thePlant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Laboratory (PERAL)USDA, APHIS, PPQ Center for Plant Health Science and Technology Raleigh, North Carolina
2OutlinePart I: Overview - who we arePart II: Introduction to PRA
3Our Mission:…Apply state-of-the-art research and science-based processes to produce high-quality scientific analyses and technical information for identifying and managing pest risks associated with regulatory initiatives for the protection of plant resources of the U.S. and the import and export of agricultural commodities.What we do:The PRA team collects and analyzes scientific information and evidence in response to APHIS needs regarding plant health threats and regulatory concerns associated with plant pests, including insects, mites, fungi, bacteria, nematodes, viruses and related agents, weeds and parasitic plants.
5PERAL’s world is populated by: 20 Entomologists11 Plant Pathologists2 Ecologists2 Botanists1 Statistician1 Economist2 Biological Science Technicians1 Librarian1 Training Specialist1 Technical Editor2 Cooperators1 IT Specialist2 Administrative Assistants2 Assistant Directors1 DirectorTotal = 50 StaffRobert Griffin, PERAL Director
6Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Develop and apply methods that evaluate, predict, or describe pest outbreak or spread, including: GISModelingStatisticsEconomicsCommodity RA Organism RA Pathway RA Risk managementExport support
7Responsibilities Perform pest risk analyses (PRA) Analyze risk-based operational questionsIdentify and evaluate risk mitigation measuresProvide scientific support to facilitate exportsEvaluate new pests and imminent threatsResearch scientific and technical questionsCollect and manage pest risk information
8Related activitiesDevelop and evaluate analytical approaches and methodologiesAnalyze offshore pest dynamicsIdentify data needs for risk-based decision makingDevelop, maintain, and integrate datasets for risk prediction, modeling, and managementProvide leadership to international and regional standard-setting
9Collaboration & linkage PPQ Programs (HQ, Regions, Field)ARS (data, research needs, review)Other USDA (OGC, ORACBA, Forest Service)Technical experts (universities, other agencies, international organizations)Stakeholders (States, producers)Offshore counterparts (NPPOs, Centers of Excellence, research orgs)In terms of who actually conducts these PRAs, it can either be USDA PPQ scientists or it can be the country or organization making the request for importation. Because of the overwhelming number of requests received by PPQ (which has lengthened the time frame within which these requests can be answered), if the requestor can conduct the PRA this can help expedite the process. If the requestor does the PRA, then it should be conducted according to the PPQ PRA guidelines (which are included in your notebook and available online). The completed PRAs will then have to be reviewed and accepted by APHIS personnel. Alternatively, instead of conducting the complete PRA, the requestor can provide to PPQ a list of pests known to attack the commodity plant species in the area from which the commodity is to be exported – this will help expedite the PRA process for our personnel.
10Projects Long-term: 90 days to several years Typically require a budgetAssigned and prioritized by the AgencyOngoing: Operational/functionalNew Pest Advisory GroupFruit and vegetable import regulations (Q-56)Ad hoc: less than 90 days
112009 Productivity 31 commodity assessments 19 organism assessments 64 new pest (NPAG) assessments7 pathway and operational assessments19 collaborative assessmentsDatabase mgmt.Capacity buildingStandard setting
12Ad Hoc ProjectsTolerance level for Meloidogyne chitwoodi in U.S. potatoes exported into Korea (image: M. chitwoodi symptoms on potato (nematode.unl.edu/melsymp.htm))Re-evaluation of Mexican ‘Hass’ Avocado pre-harvest orchard sampling for the work plan (image: ‘Hass’ avocado fruit (source:Pest risk map for Sirex noctilio and associated fungus Amylostereum areolatum (image: Sirex woodwasp adults (Sirex noctilio Farbricius) by Paula Klasmer (www.forestryimages.org))PERAL receives a large number of ad hoc requests.Here are a few examples of ad hoc projects that were completed in These projects cover a range of objectives.
13DoD Projects started in 2009 Wood Packaging with Ammunition to EuropeBase movement from Okinawa to GuamExport analysisProve that untreated wood is low riskStatistically designed samplingNegotiation requiredLarge pathway analysisMultiple pests and multiple pathwaysHuge data collection challengeCollaboration with other agencies
14Capacity Building, Training, and Regulatory Curriculum International training Workshops on risk analysis, pest free & low pest prevalence areas, pest management, etc.Risk Analysis 101 and Risk Analysis Mentoring ProgramRA 101 training every year (summer)Risk Analysis Mentoring Training (RAMP) training ongoingRegulatory Curriculum at NCSU- Fundamentals of (Pest) Risk Analysis, 1 credit, NCSU- Challenges in Plant Resource Protection, 3 credits, NCSUPERAL is active in teaching commodity pest risk analysis to foreign agriculture officials.PERAL has also developed a regulatory curriculum that has been implemented at NCSU.
15Library ServicesOver 2,500 hard references organized in Library of Congress classification order with electronic catalog and checkout system17,000 PRAs, in-house publications, and scientific references in searchable electronic formatCollections of posters, maps, photographsLucy Reid PERAL Information Specialist
16New Pest Advisory Group (NPAG) Mission: assess exotic plant pests that are new or imminent threats to U.S. agriculture or the environment and recommend appropriate actions for PPQ to takeProducts: datasheets & reports with recommendationsAmaryllis weevil, undescribed genus & speciesBotryotinia sphaerospermaAchatina fulica
17NAPPFAST NCSU-APHIS Plant Pest Forecasting Internet tool for pest prediction and detectionInteractive tool kits for building predictive models for insects, pathogens, and weedsOn-line national and international weather and climate databasesModel output can be graphical or map based for historical periods and climate matchView of the NAPPFAST interface showing map viewing capabilities. The map depicts the predicted risk of one or more days suitable for maize wilt infection in North America based upon 10 years of derived soil temperature data.NAPPFAST currently has climate data for all of North America, including Hawaii, with data received from over 3700 weather stations. The system can create model output in the form of graphs from individual or multiple reporting stations or maps at a 10-km2 resolution using the Barnes’ method of interpolation. The predictive maps can be made from 10, 20 or 30 year daily climate data or from selected historical periods over the last 35 years. Maps are zoomable and can be overlaid with reference data including county boundaries, selected crop distributions and interstate highways. The maps can be annotated by the user and printed as a PDF file with supporting documentation. Predictive maps for over 30 pests have been made available at a password protected site including models for many pests on the CAPS 2004 and 2005 target lists. NAPPFAST has been used in the USDA-ERS soybean rust economic evaluations and in the Phytophthora ramorum trace back incidents.
18Phytosanitary Alert System (www.pestalert.org) The Phytosanitary Alert System (PAS) is the web-based pest reporting system of the North American Plant Protection Organization (NAPPO)Why CPHST?: PAS is directly in line with CPHST’s mission to identify pathways used by exotic pests and weeds, and to assess the risks posed by these pestsCPHST staff input: 2 risk analysts; 35% of their work week
19The Global Pest and Disease Database (GPDD) Information provided includes: host range, distribution maps, biology, control, images (provided by UGA), links to related APHIS documents, references, etc.The Global Pest and Disease Database• Need identified in PPQ Safeguarding ReviewCooperative Agreement with NCSU initiated in 2003Archive of exotic pest data specific to PPQ needs (not duplicative of CABI or other resources/compendia)Secure system, roll-based accessCurrently includes profiles for approx pests / 18 data fields per profilePrimary users: PPQ managers, analysts, and staff; CAPS Program; State and International cooperators; DHS CBPLinked to OPIS
21Initiation Request Prioritization Assignment Time Prerequisites QuarterlyOne + teamWeeks to years
22Analysis Comprehensive Pest List Quarantine Pest List Pathway List Pest AnalysisIdentify MitigationsFormulate RecommendationsLiterature review, expert and country consultationOptional country consultation
23Risk Assessment Risk Management Initiation Identify hazard(s) Estimate thelikelihood ofoccurrenceEstimate the magnitudeof the consequencesDevelop conclusionsand describeuncertaintyDescribe the concern which has created the need. Understand the background and expectations.Risk AssessmentMitigationrequiresassessmentRiskrequiresmitigationRisk ManagementDevelop recommendationsand describe uncertaintyEvaluate mitigation options for:-Efficacy-Feasibility-ImpactsIdentify mitigationoptionsDecisionmakingEvaluate recommendations against the current environment and values to select an option.
24Risk Assessment Questions What information is available?What quantity and quality of information?What can go wrong (if nothing is done)?What is the likelihood?What is the magnitude of the consequences?
25Elements of Pest Risk Assessment Likelihood (X)Associated with host or pathwayEscapes certificationSurvives transitUndetected at entryProvided a favorable environmentAble to reproduce/spreadConsequences (+)Direct economic or health damage potentialIndirect damage potentialEnvironmental damage potentialPerceived damage potential (social, political, aesthetic, etc.)
26Risk Management Questions What can be done to eliminate or mitigate the hazard?How effective are the options?How feasible are the options?What impacts do the options have?What is the recommended option?What is the level of uncertainty?
27Variability and Uncertainty Variability is not reduced with more or better informationUncertainty may be:modelling or measurement errorsgaps in informationincorrect assumptions
28Risk Communication Two-way exchange of information consulting informingexplaining or justifyingNot for consensus, but understandingDemonstrates openness and concern
29Raleigh, North Carolina USA Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Laboratory1730 Varsity Drive, Suite 300Raleigh, North Carolina USATel:Fax: