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USDA, APHIS, PPQ Center for Plant Health Science and Technology Raleigh, North Carolina Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) and the Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis.

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Presentation on theme: "USDA, APHIS, PPQ Center for Plant Health Science and Technology Raleigh, North Carolina Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) and the Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis."— Presentation transcript:

1 USDA, APHIS, PPQ Center for Plant Health Science and Technology Raleigh, North Carolina Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) and the Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Laboratory (PERAL)

2 Outline Part I: Overview - who we are Part II: Introduction to PRA

3 Our Mission: …Apply state-of-the-art research and science-based processes to produce high-quality scientific analyses and technical information for identifying and managing pest risks associated with regulatory initiatives for the protection of plant resources of the U.S. and the import and export of agricultural commodities. What we do: The PRA team collects and analyzes scientific information and evidence in response to APHIS needs regarding plant health threats and regulatory concerns associated with plant pests, including insects, mites, fungi, bacteria, nematodes, viruses and related agents, weeds and parasitic plants.

4 A Glimpse into PERAL’s World

5 PERAL’s world is populated by: 20 Entomologists 11 Plant Pathologists 2 Ecologists 2 Botanists 1 Statistician 1 Economist 2 Biological Science Technicians 1 Librarian 1 Training Specialist 1 Technical Editor 2 Cooperators 1 IT Specialist 2 Administrative Assistants 2 Assistant Directors 1 Director Total = 50 Staff Robert Griffin, PERAL Director

6 Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Develop and apply methods that evaluate, predict, or describe pest outbreak or spread, including: GIS Modeling Statistics Economics Commodity RA Organism RA Pathway RA Risk management Export support

7 Responsibilities Perform pest risk analyses (PRA) Analyze risk-based operational questions Identify and evaluate risk mitigation measures Provide scientific support to facilitate exports Evaluate new pests and imminent threats Research scientific and technical questions Collect and manage pest risk information

8 Related activities Develop and evaluate analytical approaches and methodologies Analyze offshore pest dynamics Identify data needs for risk-based decision making Develop, maintain, and integrate datasets for risk prediction, modeling, and management Provide leadership to international and regional standard-setting

9 Collaboration & linkage PPQ Programs (HQ, Regions, Field) ARS (data, research needs, review) Other USDA (OGC, ORACBA, Forest Service) Technical experts (universities, other agencies, international organizations) Stakeholders (States, producers) Offshore counterparts (NPPOs, Centers of Excellence, research orgs)

10 Projects Long-term: 90 days to several years –Typically require a budget –Assigned and prioritized by the Agency Ongoing: Operational/functional –New Pest Advisory Group –Fruit and vegetable import regulations (Q-56) Ad hoc: less than 90 days

11 2009 Productivity –31 commodity assessments –19 organism assessments –64 new pest (NPAG) assessments –7 pathway and operational assessments –19 collaborative assessments –Database mgmt. –Capacity building –Standard setting

12 Ad Hoc Projects Tolerance level for Meloidogyne chitwoodi in U.S. potatoes exported into Korea (image: M. chitwoodi symptoms on potato ( Re-evaluation of Mexican ‘Hass’ Avocado pre-harvest orchard sampling for the work plan (image: ‘Hass’ avocado fruit (source: Pest risk map for Sirex noctilio and associated fungus Amylostereum areolatum (image: Sirex woodwasp adults (Sirex noctilio Farbricius) by Paula Klasmer (

13 DoD Projects started in 2009 Wood Packaging with Ammunition to Europe Export analysis Prove that untreated wood is low risk Statistically designed sampling Negotiation required Base movement from Okinawa to Guam Large pathway analysis Multiple pests and multiple pathways Huge data collection challenge Collaboration with other agencies

14 Capacity Building, Training, and Regulatory Curriculum International training Workshops on risk analysis, pest free & low pest prevalence areas, pest management, etc. Risk Analysis 101 and Risk Analysis Mentoring Program RA 101 training every year (summer) Risk Analysis Mentoring Training (RAMP) training ongoing Regulatory Curriculum at NCSU - Fundamentals of (Pest) Risk Analysis, 1 credit, NCSU - Challenges in Plant Resource Protection, 3 credits, NCSU

15 Library Services Over 2,500 hard references organized in Library of Congress classification order with electronic catalog and checkout system 17,000 PRAs, in-house publications, and scientific references in searchable electronic format Collections of posters, maps, photographs Lucy Reid PERAL Information Specialist

16 New Pest Advisory Group (NPAG) Mission: assess exotic plant pests that are new or imminent threats to U.S. agriculture or the environment and recommend appropriate actions for PPQ to take Products: datasheets & reports with recommendations Amaryllis weevil, undescribed genus & species Botryotinia sphaerosperma Achatina fulica

17 Internet tool for pest prediction and detection Interactive tool kits for building predictive models for insects, pathogens, and weeds On-line national and international weather and climate databases Model output can be graphical or map based for historical periods and climate match NAPPFAST NCSU-APHIS Plant Pest Forecasting View of the NAPPFAST interface showing map viewing capabilities. The map depicts the predicted risk of one or more days suitable for maize wilt infection in North America based upon 10 years of derived soil temperature data.

18 The Phytosanitary Alert System (PAS) is the web-based pest reporting system of the North American Plant Protection Organization (NAPPO) Why CPHST?: PAS is directly in line with CPHST’s mission to identify pathways used by exotic pests and weeds, and to assess the risks posed by these pests CPHST staff input: 2 risk analysts; 35% of their work week Phytosanitary Alert System (

19 The Global Pest and Disease Database (GPDD) Information provided includes: host range, distribution maps, biology, control, images (provided by UGA), links to related APHIS documents, references, etc.

20 PART II Introduction to PRA

21 Initiation Request Prioritization Assignment Time Prerequisites Quarterly One + team Weeks to years

22 Analysis Comprehensive Pest List Quarantine Pest List Pathway List Pest Analysis Identify Mitigations Formulate Recommendations Optional country consultation Literature review, expert and country consultation

23 Mitigation requires assessment Risk requires mitigation Initiation Identify hazard(s) Estimate the likelihood of occurrence Estimate the magnitude of the consequences Develop conclusions and describe uncertainty Develop recommendations and describe uncertainty Evaluate mitigation options for: -Efficacy -Feasibility -Impacts Identify mitigation options Decisionmaking Describe the concern which has created the need. Understand the background and expectations. Evaluate recommendations against the current environment and values to select an option. Risk Assessment Risk Management

24 Risk Assessment Questions What information is available? What quantity and quality of information? What can go wrong (if nothing is done)? What is the likelihood? What is the magnitude of the consequences?

25 Elements of Pest Risk Assessment Likelihood (X) Associated with host or pathway Escapes certification Survives transit Undetected at entry Provided a favorable environment Able to reproduce/spread Consequences (+) Direct economic or health damage potential Indirect damage potential Environmental damage potential Perceived damage potential (social, political, aesthetic, etc.)

26 Risk Management Questions What can be done to eliminate or mitigate the hazard? How effective are the options? How feasible are the options? What impacts do the options have? What is the recommended option? What is the level of uncertainty?

27 Variability and Uncertainty Variability is not reduced with more or better information Uncertainty may be: –modelling or measurement errors –gaps in information –incorrect assumptions

28 Risk Communication Two-way exchange of information –consulting –informing –explaining or justifying Not for consensus, but understanding Demonstrates openness and concern

29 1730 Varsity Drive, Suite 300 Raleigh, North Carolina USA Tel: Fax: al.shtmlhttp:/ Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Laboratory

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