1. Pest Risk Analysis (PRA)
and the
Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Laboratory (PERAL)
USDA, APHIS, PPQ Center for Plant Health Science and Technology Raleigh, North Carolina

2. Outline
Part I: Overview - who we are
Part II: Introduction to PRA

3. Our Mission:
…Apply state-of-the-art research and science-based processes to produce high-quality scientific analyses and technical information for identifying and managing pest risks associated with regulatory initiatives for the protection of plant resources of the U.S. and the import and export of agricultural commodities.
What we do:
The PRA team collects and analyzes scientific information and evidence in response to APHIS needs regarding plant health threats and regulatory concerns associated with plant pests, including insects, mites, fungi, bacteria, nematodes, viruses and related agents, weeds and parasitic plants.

4. A Glimpse into PERAL’s World

5. PERAL’s world is populated by:
20 Entomologists
11 Plant Pathologists
2 Ecologists
2 Botanists
1 Statistician
1 Economist
2 Biological Science Technicians
1 Librarian
1 Training Specialist
1 Technical Editor
2 Cooperators
1 IT Specialist
2 Administrative Assistants
2 Assistant Directors
1 Director
Total = 50 Staff
Robert Griffin, PERAL Director

6. Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis
Develop and apply methods that evaluate, predict, or describe pest outbreak or spread, including: GIS
Modeling
Statistics
Economics
Commodity RA Organism RA Pathway RA Risk management
Export support

7. Responsibilities Perform pest risk analyses (PRA)
Analyze risk-based operational questions
Identify and evaluate risk mitigation measures
Provide scientific support to facilitate exports
Evaluate new pests and imminent threats
Research scientific and technical questions
Collect and manage pest risk information

8. Related activities
Develop and evaluate analytical approaches and methodologies
Analyze offshore pest dynamics
Identify data needs for risk-based decision making
Develop, maintain, and integrate datasets for risk prediction, modeling, and management
Provide leadership to international and regional standard-setting

9. Collaboration & linkage
PPQ Programs (HQ, Regions, Field)
ARS (data, research needs, review)
Other USDA (OGC, ORACBA, Forest Service)
Technical experts (universities, other agencies, international organizations)
Stakeholders (States, producers)
Offshore counterparts (NPPOs, Centers of Excellence, research orgs)
In terms of who actually conducts these PRAs, it can either be USDA PPQ scientists or it can be the country or organization making the request for importation. Because of the overwhelming number of requests received by PPQ (which has lengthened the time frame within which these requests can be answered), if the requestor can conduct the PRA this can help expedite the process. If the requestor does the PRA, then it should be conducted according to the PPQ PRA guidelines (which are included in your notebook and available online). The completed PRAs will then have to be reviewed and accepted by APHIS personnel. Alternatively, instead of conducting the complete PRA, the requestor can provide to PPQ a list of pests known to attack the commodity plant species in the area from which the commodity is to be exported – this will help expedite the PRA process for our personnel.

10. Projects Long-term: 90 days to several years
Typically require a budget
Assigned and prioritized by the Agency
Ongoing: Operational/functional
New Pest Advisory Group
Fruit and vegetable import regulations (Q-56)
Ad hoc: less than 90 days

11. 2009 Productivity 31 commodity assessments 19 organism assessments
64 new pest (NPAG) assessments
7 pathway and operational assessments
19 collaborative assessments
Database mgmt.
Capacity building
Standard setting

12. Ad Hoc Projects
Tolerance level for Meloidogyne chitwoodi in U.S. potatoes exported into Korea (image: M. chitwoodi symptoms on potato (nematode.unl.edu/melsymp.htm))
Re-evaluation of Mexican ‘Hass’ Avocado pre-harvest orchard sampling for the work plan (image: ‘Hass’ avocado fruit (source:
Pest risk map for Sirex noctilio and associated fungus Amylostereum areolatum (image: Sirex woodwasp adults (Sirex noctilio Farbricius) by Paula Klasmer (
PERAL receives a large number of ad hoc requests.
Here are a few examples of ad hoc projects that were completed in These projects cover a range of objectives.

13. DoD Projects started in 2009
Wood Packaging with Ammunition to Europe
Base movement from Okinawa to Guam
Export analysis
Prove that untreated wood is low risk
Statistically designed sampling
Negotiation required
Large pathway analysis
Multiple pests and multiple pathways
Huge data collection challenge
Collaboration with other agencies

14. Capacity Building, Training, and Regulatory Curriculum
International training Workshops on risk analysis, pest free & low pest prevalence areas, pest management, etc.
Risk Analysis 101 and Risk Analysis Mentoring Program
RA 101 training every year (summer)
Risk Analysis Mentoring Training (RAMP) training ongoing
Regulatory Curriculum at NCSU
- Fundamentals of (Pest) Risk Analysis, 1 credit, NCSU
- Challenges in Plant Resource Protection, 3 credits, NCSU
PERAL is active in teaching commodity pest risk analysis to foreign agriculture officials.
PERAL has also developed a regulatory curriculum that has been implemented at NCSU.

15. Library Services
Over 2,500 hard references organized in Library of Congress classification order with electronic catalog and checkout system
17,000 PRAs, in-house publications, and scientific references in searchable electronic format
Collections of posters, maps, photographs
Lucy Reid PERAL Information Specialist

16. New Pest Advisory Group (NPAG)
Mission: assess exotic plant pests that are new or imminent threats to U.S. agriculture or the environment and recommend appropriate actions for PPQ to take
Products: datasheets & reports with recommendations
Amaryllis weevil, undescribed genus & species
Botryotinia sphaerosperma
Achatina fulica

17. NAPPFAST NCSU-APHIS Plant Pest Forecasting
Internet tool for pest prediction and detection
Interactive tool kits for building predictive models for insects, pathogens, and weeds
On-line national and international weather and climate databases
Model output can be graphical or map based for historical periods and climate match
View of the NAPPFAST interface showing map viewing capabilities. The map depicts the predicted risk of one or more days suitable for maize wilt infection in North America based upon 10 years of derived soil temperature data.
NAPPFAST currently has climate data for all of North America, including Hawaii, with data received from over 3700 weather stations. The system can create model output in the form of graphs from individual or multiple reporting stations or maps at a 10-km2 resolution using the Barnes’ method of interpolation. The predictive maps can be made from 10, 20 or 30 year daily climate data or from selected historical periods over the last 35 years. Maps are zoomable and can be overlaid with reference data including county boundaries, selected crop distributions and interstate highways. The maps can be annotated by the user and printed as a PDF file with supporting documentation. Predictive maps for over 30 pests have been made available at a password protected site including models for many pests on the CAPS 2004 and 2005 target lists. NAPPFAST has been used in the USDA-ERS soybean rust economic evaluations and in the Phytophthora ramorum trace back incidents.

18. Phytosanitary Alert System (www.pestalert.org)
The Phytosanitary Alert System (PAS) is the web-based pest reporting system of the North American Plant Protection Organization (NAPPO)
Why CPHST?: PAS is directly in line with CPHST’s mission to identify pathways used by exotic pests and weeds, and to assess the risks posed by these pests
CPHST staff input: 2 risk analysts; 35% of their work week

19. The Global Pest and Disease Database (GPDD)
Information provided includes: host range, distribution maps, biology, control, images (provided by UGA), links to related APHIS documents, references, etc.
The Global Pest and Disease Database
• Need identified in PPQ Safeguarding Review
Cooperative Agreement with NCSU initiated in 2003
Archive of exotic pest data specific to PPQ needs (not duplicative of CABI or other resources/compendia)
Secure system, roll-based access
Currently includes profiles for approx pests / 18 data fields per profile
Primary users: PPQ managers, analysts, and staff; CAPS Program; State and International cooperators; DHS CBP
Linked to OPIS

20. PART II
Introduction to PRA

21. Initiation Request Prioritization Assignment Time Prerequisites
Quarterly
One + team
Weeks to years

22. Analysis Comprehensive Pest List Quarantine Pest List Pathway List
Pest Analysis
Identify Mitigations
Formulate Recommendations
Literature review, expert and country consultation
Optional country consultation

23. Risk Assessment Risk Management Initiation Identify hazard(s)
Estimate the
likelihood of
occurrence
Estimate the magnitude
of the consequences
Develop conclusions
and describe
uncertainty
Describe the concern which has created the need. Understand the background and expectations.
Risk Assessment
Mitigation
requires
assessment
Risk
requires
mitigation
Risk Management
Develop recommendations
and describe uncertainty
Evaluate mitigation options for:
-Efficacy
-Feasibility
-Impacts
Identify mitigation
options
Decisionmaking
Evaluate recommendations against the current environment and values to select an option.

24. Risk Assessment Questions
What information is available?
What quantity and quality of information?
What can go wrong (if nothing is done)?
What is the likelihood?
What is the magnitude of the consequences?

25. Elements of Pest Risk Assessment
Likelihood (X)
Associated with host or pathway
Escapes certification
Survives transit
Undetected at entry
Provided a favorable environment
Able to reproduce/spread
Consequences (+)
Direct economic or health damage potential
Indirect damage potential
Environmental damage potential
Perceived damage potential (social, political, aesthetic, etc.)

26. Risk Management Questions
What can be done to eliminate or mitigate the hazard?
How effective are the options?
How feasible are the options?
What impacts do the options have?
What is the recommended option?
What is the level of uncertainty?

27. Variability and Uncertainty
Variability is not reduced with more or better information
Uncertainty may be:
modelling or measurement errors
gaps in information
incorrect assumptions

28. Risk Communication Two-way exchange of information consulting
informing
explaining or justifying
Not for consensus, but understanding
Demonstrates openness and concern

29. Raleigh, North Carolina USA
Plant Epidemiology and Risk Analysis Laboratory
1730 Varsity Drive, Suite 300
Raleigh, North Carolina USA
Tel:
Fax: