1. Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) Stage 2: Pest Risk Assessment Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) Training

2. Stages Stage 1: Initiation Stage 2: Pest Risk Assessment –Step 1: Pest Categorization –Step 2: Assessment of the Probability of Introduction (entry, establishment) and Spread –Step 3: Impacts –Step 4: Overall Assessment of Risk –Step 5: Uncertainty Stage 3: Pest Risk Management

3. Perpetuation, for the foreseeable future, of a pest within an area after entry (ISPM 5, 2007) Establishment Pest Host (Habitat) Environment (Ecosystem)

4. Collect information from area(s) where pest occurs & PRA area –Pest information –Environment information –Host information Compare Assess probability of establishment Probability of establishment

5. Availability of suitable hosts, alternate hosts and vectors Suitability of environment, including biotic & abiotic factors Cultural practices and control measures Other characteristics affecting probability of establishment Factors to consider…

6. Are hosts & alternates present? Are habitats available for pest plants? How likely is the pest to find hosts? Are they abundant? Are hosts present in the vicinity of expected entry points? Host information

7. Is the pest adaptable? Has it been introduced elsewhere? Can it adapt to different climatic or other environmental factors? Can the pest seek out hosts? Is it mobile? Pest information

8. How does the pest reproduce? Does it have a high reproductive capacity? How does it survive adverse conditions? Does it require an alternate host or a vector? Pest information

9. Is a vector required for dispersal of the pest? –Is it present in the PRA area? –Is it likely to be introduced? –Are other potential vectors available? Vector information

10. Does the climate in the PRA area differ from that where the pest occurs? How? What climatic factors are critical for the pests success? What climatic factors, if any, are limiting? Is the climate suitable for the pest? Will it be able to survive? Will it be able to reproduce? Climate information

11. Precipitation –Rain, snow, fog …. Temperature –Seasonal highs and lows, temperature extremes … Seasonal variation

12. Other environmental information Soil Hydrology Vegetation Prevailing winds Day length Species interactions

13. Cultural practices and control measures Compare cultivation practices of host crops in the area of origin and PRA area Would existing practices mitigate risk? Are there any pest control programs or natural enemies already in the PRA area? Are suitable methods for pest control or eradication available?

14. Other factors Reproductive strategy and method of pest survival –Self-crossing –Duration of life cycle –Generations per year Genetic adaptability Minimum population needed for successful establishment

15. Establishment Pest Host (Habitat) Environment (Ecosystem)

16. Tools for predicting establishment Plant hardiness zone maps Climate maps Climate-matching models Bio-climatic models Fit for purpose Science-based Transparent

20. Modelling systems Examples –CLIMEX –GARP –BIO-CLIM Distribution and abundance of an organism that cannot regulate its body temperature is largely determined by climate Climate information from the known distribution of an organism can help predict the potential distribution and abundance of the organism in new regions

21. Environmental factors The distribution and abundance of an organism that cannot control or regulate its body temperature is largely determined by climate. Climate information from the known distribution of an organism can help predict the potential distribution and abundance of the organism in new geographic regions.

22. CLIMEX Computer software containing long term data (30 years) from almost 3000 locations worldwide Is used to predict the effects of climate on plants and animals based on biological parameters e.g. response to temperature Generates a single number – the Eco-climatic Index to describe how favourable a location is for a particular species

23. Asian Longhorn Beetle Anoplophora glabripennis Native to China, pest of poplar trees Introductions in USA & Canada PRA initiation for UK – spread outside PRA area

24. Distribution in Asia

25. CLIMEX indices for ALB in Asia

26. CLIMEX Indices for ALB in Europe

27. Computerized predictive models Useful communication tool Predictive maps based on limited climate variables Does not include host information or other interactions Involves subjective judgements & assumptions May cause false confidence

28. Suitability of environment Aphis nerii found at a nursery on imported plants Damages plants and vectors several viruses Polyphagous Temperature requirements known Establishment in a protected environment possible?

29. Temperature data in relation to Aphis nerii development Red = threshold temperature for development of Aphis nerii (8.2 C) Blue = outdoor maximum and minimum temperature data southern England Black = maximum and minimum temperature in a heated glasshouse.

30. Sources of information NPPO RPPO Atlases WWW FAO CABI Books National government data Journals PRA area Pests current distribution

31. Establishment Pest Host (Habitat) Environment (Ecosystem)