2Copy and Save this Template to your Syndicate Folder !!! For the backbrief save file in: S:\M-4-92\STUDENT FOLDER\ALLSYN\01. Presentation drop-box Use the following naming convention: SYN# Phase 3 DEL
4ADMIN INSTRUCTIONS (1 of 2) This template is in line with the processes outlining Phase 3 as presented in Chapter 4 but does not strictly adhere Appendix 1 to Annex H of the COPD V1.0 dated 17 Dec 10.As annotated in Appendix 1, the template is illustrative only – actual briefing requirements are determined by the Commander.This template is intended to assist you with preparation of the mission analysis briefing, but you are not expected to adhere to it rigidly. Feel free to:Add slides where you feel important items of analysis have been omittedDelete slides about which you have no significant analysis to briefModify slides to facilitate your own presentation styleRemember to make adjustments to agenda slides as necessary to support modifications.Be cognizant of the size/length of the brief – presenting more material is not necessarily conducive to a clearer operational picture44
5ADMIN INSTRUCTIONS (2 of 2) Items in GREEN text are administrative notes or instructions which should be deleted prior to the presentation of the briefing Refers to information in the notes page below. Delete prior to presentation.Items in BLACK represent information from the Zoran Sea scenario that has been input for your benefit and header informationBLUE RED has been used for the classification in the header/footer and to highlight key points within your analysisSlides in light blue background require student inputs. You may reset to white for backbrief.55
7PurposeTo provide the Resource Director/JOPG LOG Rep an overview of the logistics input into the Mission/Operational Analysis of the JOPG.
8Agenda Key Factors Critical Logistics Requirements Assumptions LimitationsCenter of Gravity InputsRisksEffects/ActionsCCIRsInitial Force EstimateEstimate of Required Logistic CapabilitiesC2Deployment TimelineProposed Planning GuidanceConclusion
9Key Factors and Deduction Time/Space/Force/Information ConclusionPredeployment & deployment to SAG, PER & AUR.Different deployment in respect of time & place.Between STRATLIFT & SROM to AUR security of extensive LOC need.Planning through all options in a complex environment.SPACEProvision of small SA (s) in PERFORCEM&T capabilities +++TIMECCIRBreak or block of LOCRFI...CCForce multiplyersCRFP for RSOM ++ (Kama Sea LOC)CVLOC in Kama Sea threat by minesUse Only those with impact on mission analysis.Add additional duplicate slides as necessary.9
10Key Factors and Deduction Time/Space/Force/Information ConclusionForward stage will be limited to SAG & Kama Sea.1 APOD and 2 SPOD in PEROnly 1 APOD in AURLLOC plan to carry troops and materiel flowSPACELLOC to cover the onwards movementFORCEM&T capabilities +++TIME....CCIRBreak or block of LLOCRFIAPOD/SPOD capabilitiesCCHigh readiness and availability of M&TCRFreedom of movement in PER, AURCVLLOC blocked or stalledUse Only those with impact on mission analysis.Add additional duplicate slides as necessary.10
11Key Factors and Deduction Time/Space/Force/Information ConclusionSustain pos for 6 months until FOF deploymentProvisions (contracts, employment, etc) for 6 months support for 6 monthsEnsure LOC operable for 6 monthsSPACEExcessive storage in SAGFORCEM&T ++TIME…CCIR...RFIHNS capabilities/capacitiesCCCRM&T availabilityCVUse Only those with impact on mission analysis.Add additional duplicate slides as necessary.11
12Key Factors and Deduction Time/Space/Force/Information ConclusionLOG minimum footprintIncrease HNSContract heavy sptBi/Multi lateral NSE cooperationSPACELLOC to cover the onwards movementFORCENSPA involvement in the PredeploymentTIMEPhase I early stageCCIR…RFIHNS capabilitiesCC...CRFreedom of movement in PER, AURCVPER, AUR HNS capabilities in Class IAUR collapseUse Only those with impact on mission analysis. Use these slides to highlight the really important factors that have logistical impacts to the RD.Add additional duplicate slides as necessary.1212
13Key Factors and Deduction Time/Space/Force/Information ConclusionAURThe implications, issues or considerations, derived from fact(s) that have operational significance.What is the significance of the factor?The outcome or result reached that requires action in planning or further analysis.What can or should be done? Fit each into a category belowFSTimelineActionCCIRRFICCCRCVUse Only those with impact on mission analysis.Add additional duplicate slides as necessary.1313
14Critical Logistics Requirements What are the critical logistics requirements to support the joint force in terms of deployment and sustainment. What have you identified that the logisticians must do in order to support the Joint Force? Provide as much detail as you have available.Who: Size, & composition of forceWhat: Anticipated mission & OP TempoWhere: Final destinations and size of the theaterWhen: Timings…when do you need the required capabilities at their final destinations?As mission analysis is taking place, the JOPG LOG Planner must capture military requirements, sustainment, and strategic support required to accomplish the mission.. Additionally, any assumptions established in order to continue planning must be noted and a RFI on that subject submitted to SHAPE. FPG-L 521414
15Logistics Planning Assumptions List any assumptions that you have made during your analysis of key factorsRemember that assumptions must be:LogicalRealisticNecessary - Planning can not continue unless an assumption is madeValid – if assumption turns out to be false, framework of problem would have to be readdressed.15
16LIMITATIONS Identify Constraints and Restraints from SSA, MRO, SPD CONSTRAINTS (Must Do)RESTRAINTS (Can’t Do)Identify Constraints and Restraints from SSA, MRO, SPDand list those with Operational and Logistics impacts1616
17Centre of Gravity Analysis Assessed Aim and desired Outcome: What is the actor’s main goal and what conditions does he seek to achieve by his actions?Centre of Gravity: What is the primary element of power upon which an actor depends to accomplish his operational objectives (to be targeted in an opponent and protect in a friend)?Critical Capabilities: What are the primary means that enables the COG to gain and maintain dominant influence over an opponent or situation?Critical Vulnerabilities: What are the weaknesses, gaps or deficiencies in the key system elements and essential conditions, characteristics, capabilities, relationships, specific resources or influences through which the COG may be influenced or neutralised?Critical requirements: What are those key system elements and essential conditions, characteristics, capabilities and influences required to generate and sustain the COG’s critical capabilities, such as specific assets, physical resources, or relationships with other actors?Conclusions: Which weaknesses, gaps or deficiencies in the key system elements and essential conditions, characteristics, capabilities, relationships, specific resources or influences could be exploited to change the capabilities and behaviour of the actor and improve conditions in the operational environment?Slide is provided as an aide in for conducting COG analysis on the following 4 slides. Hide or delete for presentation.1717
18Alliance Centre of Gravity Analysis Assessed Aim and desired Outcome: deter VUL, assist AUR in disrupting BLA and in re-establishing internal security, set conditions for NEO, provide FoM for UN HA.Centre of Gravity:CJTFCritical Capabilities:ability to deter VULability to train AUR/PERability to disrupt BLA (ourselves)ability to create a SASEability to sustain ourselvesability to coordinate with external partnersCritical Vulnerabilities:Extensive LOCsLimited APOD/SPOD capabilityWeather cond in winterDegradation of Humanitarian situationCritical requirements:1-6: C21-5: FOA- 1-5 : strategic deployment secured (within JOA)RSOM-I in place- 5: sustainment- 6: robust liaison & training capacityConclusions:CJTF effectiveness depends on early activation/availability of Strategic assets, sourcing of force package and intelligence data. Furthermore, protection of APOD/SPOD is critical.This slide has been provided by the LOG REP to the JOPG for further analysis by the RD LOPG. Conduct logistics analysis and provide input where required. Provide inputs in RED.1818
19UN Centre of Gravity Analysis Assessed Aim and desired Outcome: Security for UN refugees camps and maintain flow of HA.Centre of Gravity:UNMA Humanitarian MissionCritical Capabilities:1 Act with legitimacy2 Intervene in critical areaCritical Vulnerabilities:2 a 1 Force Protection not adequate2 b 1 LOC not secured2 c 1 APOD not availableCritical requirements:1 a UN SC Resolutions2 a Force protection (UNSECFORA)2 b Freedom of movement2 c Access to APOD/SPODConclusions: Intervene with force protection, secure LOC and reopen Capella Airport.This slide has been provided by the LOG REP to the JOPG for further analysis by the RD LOPG. Conduct logistics analysis and provide input where required. Provide inputs in RED.
20AURIGA Centre of Gravity Analysis Assessed Aim and desired Outcome: preserve its territorial integrity and stabilityCentre of Gravity:Security forcesCritical Capabilities:1 Mantain control of its territory2 Cooperate with PER Security Forces3 Defeat BLA4 Protect DPREs5 Control of critical infrastructuresCritical Vulnerabilities:1 a 1 Moral3 a 1 Lack of Training3 b 1 Credibility3 b 2 CohesionCritical requirements:1 a FoM1 b High mobility/terrain Equipment3 a COIN TTPs3 b Effective C24 a LogisticsConclusions: Keep working on AUR specific training, strengthening logistic capacity, establishing FoM, supporting them in fighting BLA and in keeping the territorial integrity.This slide has been provided by the LOG REP to the JOPG for further analysis by the RD LOPG. Conduct logistics analysis and provide input where required. Provide inputs in RED.
21PERSEUS Centre of Gravity Analysis Assessed Aim and desired Outcome: Maintain the control of the territory and sustain AUR in containing BLACentre of Gravity:Security ForcesCritical Capabilities:1 Defeat BLA2 Support Auriga3 Maintain its territorial integrity4 Protect energy infrastructures5 Maintain population supportCritical Vulnerabilities:1 a 1 Air Defence Force weakness1 a 2 Limited numbers of modern weapons systems2 b 1 Low military readiness2 b 2 Lack of Training5 a 1 Control of HA and of DPREs flowCritical requirements:1 a COIN TTPs2 a Logistics2 b Capable Fighting Force4 a Access to SPOE/SPOD5 a International tiesConclusions: Increase Security Forces capabilities IOT defeat BLA and obtain a better control of the territory.This slide has been provided by the LOG REP to the JOPG for further analysis by the RD LOPG. Conduct logistics analysis and provide input where required. Provide inputs in RED.
22Batari National Movement Centre of Gravity Analysis Assessed Aim and desired Outcome: to create an ethnically pure BATARI state.Centre of Gravity:BLA FightersCritical Capabilities:1 Capability to attack refugees camp.2 Control of etnhic batari area3 Expel non BATARI people4 Destabilise AURIGA5 Acting as insurgencyCritical Vulnerabilities:2 a 1 FOM in Kandar Valley2 a 2 Differencies in councilSupport/recruitment people4 a 1 Financial resources (VUL/ Crime Organization)4 a 2 VUL supply linesa Cellphone networkCritical requirements:1 a Weapons1 b FOM2 a Support of tribal council4 a VUL support/logistic/training/ safe heavens5 a C2 (1c)a Communications (all)Conclusions: Prevent destabilization actions in AUR performed by BLA, cutting VUL support. The operation will focus on limiting FOM mainly in the Kandar valley and decreasing C2 capabilities. Conduct INFO operations IOT exploit council differences and gain population support to limit the effects of hostile propaganda.This slide has been provided by the LOG REP to the JOPG for further analysis by the RD LOPG. Conduct logistics analysis and provide input where required. Provide inputs in RED.
23VUL Centre of Gravity Analysis Assessed Aim and desired Outcome: Political, economic and military dominance of the Zoran Sea region in order to achieve regional hegemony.Centre of Gravity:VUL Intervention ForcesCritical Capabilities:1 Deny/delay NATO’s access to the region2 Deter/ threaten Alliance forces/ Partners3 Directly intervene into AUR/PER4 Support the BLA (use as proxy org.)Critical Vulnerabilities:3 a 1 Limited avenues of approach to AUR/PER3 b 1 Logistics and sustainment of long term operations3 b 2 Simultaneous ops (AUR/PER) (3c)3 b 3 LOCs and links (phys/influence) with BLA (4a)3 c 1 Joint C2 structure and not capable for efficient joint operationsa Energy exports (In case of VUL’s intervention embargo should be applied- UNSCR)Critical requirements:1&2 Submarines, mines, SOF, Air force2 a TBMs, WMD (Counter WMD, TBMs capabilities required)2 b Aggressive Government (Deterrence required, PsyOps )3 a Armoured land forces3 b Operational sustainment (logistics, reinforcement)3 c Effective C24 a Training, bases and equipments for the BLA4 b Effective supply chain (LLOCs)a Dependence on energy/drugs exportsConclusions: Prevent VUL from hampering our deployment to the Kama Sea (particularly with their maritime component) in coordination with SAG. TBMD may be vital should VUL launch a TBM attack. Cutting the support (physical links and influence) to BLA will prevent VUL’s proxy to act effectively. Should VUL armed forces attack, operations should focus on limited logistics capacity and joint C2 to degrade ability to conduct/continue operations. Furthermore, military reactions should include the interdiction of their LOCs to prevent resupplies thereby further reducing their sustainment.
24Operational Risks Operational Risk Assessment: Risk Name (Select 1 & SourceConsequence forSeverityProbability- Actions of the opponent(s).- Actions of friendly forces.- Operational environmental factors.- Overall mission- Line of operation- Decisive Points- Desired effect.Extremely high - could result failure to accomplish mission.High - could result in failure to accomplish one or more objectives.Moderate - could result in failure to meet criteria for success or exceed time, space, forces/actors limitsLow - minimal impact on mission accomplishmentSelect one &Delete rest for presentation)- High- Moderate- Low(Select 1 &Delete rest)Risk ManagementCan we neutralise the source?Can we reduce our vulnerability to the source of the risk?Can we limit the consequence and/or severity of the occurrence?Can we reduce the probability of occurrence?ConclusionUnacceptable - risk management cannot reduce risk to an acceptable level!Conditionally acceptable - risk can be reduced to an acceptable level by taking actions to:Modify force disposition/posture/composition.Adjust current operations.Prepare branch plan or sequel.Acceptable, no risk management actions requiredProvide your analysis to the JOPG Log Rep. Complete one slide for each major risk evaluated in terms of logistics, sustainment, and movement.2424
25Logistics Input into Operational Design Review the following 4 slides from the JOPGReview and evaluate the DC/EffectsHas the JOPG gotten this right? If not…what are your inputs?What are the Key actions logisticians will have to take to support the effects and DCs?tional Design? Keep them broad and focus on the most important actions.The next 4 Slides have been provided by JOPG as reference information for evaluation and input if required.Evaluate the DC and Effects. From a logistics perspective, is there a need for additional DC/DPs or Effects? Do they DC/DPs include the most vital conditions that need to be established to meet objectives and end-state? Remember, as long as an effect (log) or action will lead to a DC, it may not be necessary to add an additional DC. Provide any recommended DCon Joint Effects and Joint Actions (Hide or delete for actual presentation)
26Objectives For Reference Only MSO 1. Prevention of further escalation and widening of the Zoran Sea conflict;MSO 2. Uninterrupted international access to the region and its resources;MSO 3. Support Aurigan efforts to achieve and maintain a safe and secure environment.MSO 4. Enable safe delivery of humanitarian aid and access to DPRE camps.MSO 5. Deter Vulpecula.MSO 6. Isolate BLA InsurgencyOO 1. Contribute to the deterrence of VulpeculaOO 2. Assist Auriga in defeating any external aggressionOO 3. Assist Auriga to re-establish internal securityOO 4. Provide for the freedom of movement for UN humanitarian activitiesOO 5. Enable freedom of access to the region and its energy resourcesBPT 1. Set the conditions for NEOBPT 2. Conduct interdiction operations in support of a potential embargoBPT 3. Support PER to maintain / re-establish territorial integritySlide has been provided by JOPG as reference information . (Hide or delete for actual presentation)MSO= Military Strategic Objective (SHAPE)OO=Operational Objective (JFC)BPT=Be Prepared to (JFC)
27For Reference Only VUL CoG MSO1 MSO5 BLA CoG COIN InitialDeploymentEarly DeploymentDeployment & ShapingSASEHandoverInternational peace and security in the Zoran Sea region is restored with full implementation of all UNSC resolutions, and the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Alliance partners is preserved.VULCoGG-DayOE:1D + 30OE:6Deter&DfaOE:2,3,4OE:5D + 120MSO1AURCoGOO1891011MSO5OO2BP161718MSO3BPT3ALLIANCECoGOE:11,12BLACoGOE17OE:15,16OE:9,10COIN1234567OO3MSO6OE:8OE:13,14OE:18UNCoGSlide has been provided by JOPG as reference information for requested input on DC/Effects. (Hide or delete for actual presentation)OE:21OE:20OE:19FoMOO4MSO212131415OO5MSO4PERCoGBPT1For Reference OnlyBPT2
28Decisive Conditions – By LoO Deter & DefeatVUL deterredAUR SF trainedTerrorist activity mitigatedAUR SF capable of independent opsFreedom of MovementVUL naval forces containedLLOCs securedHA delivered without interruptionCritical nodes securedCOINSLOCs securedCIA open & operationalGoA stabilizedBLA fracturedBLA isolatedSASE established in AURGoA – Bataris dialogue establishedBranch planVUL offensive operations ceasedAUR territorial integrity re-establishedPER territorial integrity re-established81921031145671213141516Slide has been provided by JOPG as reference information for requested input on DC/Effects (Hide or delete for actual presentation)1718For Reference Only
29Effects to be Achieved : For Reference Only NrEffectLOO123VUL SF returned to peace locationsXAUR police trainedAUR border control trained4AUR army trained5Terrorist attacks decreased6AUR army conduct ops without assistance8VUL threats on SLOCs neutralized9BLA attacks on CIA ceased10Civ/Mil traffic restored11Public support increased12Public services provided13Hardliners & Moderates separated14Tribal council spt to BLA decreased15Tribal council spt to BLA stopped16FoM for BLA denied17BLA attacks in Kandar Valley decreased18Comms between GoA and tribal council established19LOCs attacks reduced20Attacks on HA actors decreased21Attacks on pipelines decreasedSlide has been provided from the JOPG. The RD JOPG rep has asked that his staff review and provide RD-Log inputs into the effects. Has the JOPG accurately Slide has been provided by JOPG as reference information for requested input on Joint Actions (Hide or delete for actual presentation)
30Commanders' Critical Information Requirements CCIR NATO - UNREADINESS NATO JFACHIVEMENT OF FULL OPS CAPABILITY (NRF + FOLLOW ON FORCES )REQUIREMENT OF ACTIVATION OR USAGE OF OPERATIONAL RESERVELOSS OF CRITICAL ASSETS/CAPABILITIES (tbd)SPOD AND APOD UNDER ATTACKATTACK ON NATO SECURITY FORCES/FACILITIESKIDNAPPING OF NATO SECURITY FORCES PERSONNEL AND VIPsATTACK ON UN ASSETS/FACILITIES OR REFUGEE CAMPSProvided by the JOPG LOG REP. Requests RD LOPG provide inputs on following slide.CCIR AURIGA AND PERSEUSGOA COLLAPSE;CIA UNAVAILABLE;ATTACK SPOD IN PERSEUS;ATTACKS ON CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES;GOA/GOP SECURITY FORCES NOT ABLE TO CONTRAST BLA;HUMANITARIAN CRISIS DETERIORED;AURIGA/PERSEUS ATTACKED.
31Commander’s Critical Information Requirements Provide logistic inputs to the CCIRs3131
32Agenda: Initial Force Estimate Estimate of Required CapabilitiesPreliminary C2 Arrangements32
33Initial Force Estimate For reference: Delete for presentationFor Reference Only
34Initial Force Estimate JLSG JLSG HQJLSG HQJLSG HQ Sp UnitJLSG HQ FP CoyGROUNDTRANSPORTATIONLOG BASERSOMSPODSupply Bn HQGroundTransport. HQRSOM HQSea Port Ops CoyAmmo Storage Supply CoyCargo Transfer UnitSlide provided from JLSG LNO. This is a JLSG tailored to support an NRF exercise.POL Supply CoyCargo Truck CoyField Warehousing CoyAPODMOVCON CenterPOL Truck CoySupply and Field Service Coy (mx)MOVCON TeamsWater Truck CoyAirPort Ops CoyStaging AreaSupport UnitWater Purification UnitHeavy EquipmentTransport CoyMedical Log CoyForce Protection UnitConvoy SupportCentersRole 3 Medical FacilityGen Support Eng CoyFor Reference OnlyPOL Facility Const Unit3434
35Logistics Required Capabilities Identify and highlight any significant differences between required operational capabilities based on the mission analysis and the force capability requirements provided in the Strategic Planning Directive/Initial Force Estimate.Provide assessment on the forces required. What gaps in capabilities have you identified between what is available and what actions-effects logisticians will have to create?Provide a listing of what additional logistics capabilities you require in order to support the joint force.Example: Capability to conduct RSOM in 3 distinct and geographically separated areas. IE: SAG, PER, & CIA.Capability to coordinate ITAS operations in the JOA.
36Preliminary C2 Arrangements Portray your initial concept for the organization of the Joint Force.Determine TOO/JOA requirements.Determine required C2 functions and locations.Determine critical liaison and coordination requirements.Include NSEs in C2 arrangementsInclude Role Specialist Nation & Lead Nation designations36
37Deployment TimelineProvide a timeline based on the minimum amount of time required to deploy the NRF and follow-on forces. Highlight in this slide any critical timings.3737
38Agenda: Proposed Planning Guidance Tentative Missions for Subordinate CommandsRequests for SHAPE3838
39Tentative Mission for Component (JLSG) Draft mission statement for the JLSG. Be sure to include the following: Who, What, When, Where, & Why…plus the assigned objectives.See Page 11 of SPD for an example from the COM JFC Naples mission statement.3939
40Requests for SHAPEDevelop requests, requirements and issues that require action at the strategic level such as:Requests for additional Crisis Response Measures (CRMs).ROE requests.Requests for InformationPre-conditions for success.Force requirements.4040
41CONCLUSIONProvide any additional conclusions that are essential for the JFC to fully comprehend the operational problem to be solved or the specific operational conditions that must be achieved.4141