2. Copy and Save this Template to your Syndicate Folder !!!
For the backbrief save file in: S:\M-4-92\STUDENT FOLDER\ALLSYN\01. Presentation drop-box Use the following naming convention: SYN# Phase 3 DEL

3. Phase 3 Operational Orientation MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEFING
Syndicate
Student Template 3

4. ADMIN INSTRUCTIONS (1 of 2)
This template is in line with the processes outlining Phase 3 as presented in Chapter 4 but does not strictly adhere Appendix 1 to Annex H of the COPD V1.0 dated 17 Dec 10.
As annotated in Appendix 1, the template is illustrative only – actual briefing requirements are determined by the Commander.
This template is intended to assist you with preparation of the mission analysis briefing, but you are not expected to adhere to it rigidly. Feel free to:
Add slides where you feel important items of analysis have been omitted
Delete slides about which you have no significant analysis to brief
Modify slides to facilitate your own presentation style
Remember to make adjustments to agenda slides as necessary to support modifications.
Be cognizant of the size/length of the brief – presenting more material is not necessarily conducive to a clearer operational picture 4 4

5. ADMIN INSTRUCTIONS (2 of 2)
Items in GREEN text are administrative notes or instructions which should be deleted prior to the presentation of the briefing Refers to information in the notes page below. Delete prior to presentation.
Items in BLACK represent information from the Zoran Sea scenario that has been input for your benefit and header information
BLUE RED has been used for the classification in the header/footer and to highlight key points within your analysis
Slides in light blue background require student inputs. You may reset to white for backbrief. 5 5

6. Logistic Input into Mission Analysis6

7. Purpose
To provide the Resource Director/JOPG LOG Rep an overview of the logistics input into the Mission/Operational Analysis of the JOPG.

8. Agenda Key Factors Critical Logistics Requirements Assumptions
Limitations
Center of Gravity Inputs
Risks
Effects/Actions
CCIRs
Initial Force Estimate
Estimate of Required Logistic Capabilities C2
Deployment Timeline
Proposed Planning Guidance
Conclusion

9. Key Factors and Deduction Time/Space/Force/Information
Conclusion
Predeployment & deployment to SAG, PER & AUR.
Different deployment in respect of time & place.
Between STRATLIFT & SROM to AUR security of extensive LOC need.
Planning through all options in a complex environment.
SPACE
Provision of small SA (s) in PER
FORCE
M&T capabilities +++
TIME
CCIR
Break or block of LOC
RFI
... CC
Force multiplyers CR
FP for RSOM ++ (Kama Sea LOC) CV
LOC in Kama Sea threat by mines
Use Only those with impact on mission analysis.
Add additional duplicate slides as necessary. 9

10. Key Factors and Deduction Time/Space/Force/Information
Conclusion
Forward stage will be limited to SAG & Kama Sea.
1 APOD and 2 SPOD in PER
Only 1 APOD in AUR
LLOC plan to carry troops and materiel flow
SPACE
LLOC to cover the onwards movement
FORCE
M&T capabilities +++
TIME
....
CCIR
Break or block of LLOC
RFI
APOD/SPOD capabilities CC
High readiness and availability of M&T CR
Freedom of movement in PER, AUR CV
LLOC blocked or stalled
Use Only those with impact on mission analysis.
Add additional duplicate slides as necessary. 10

11. Key Factors and Deduction Time/Space/Force/Information
Conclusion
Sustain pos for 6 months until FOF deployment
Provisions (contracts, employment, etc) for 6 months support for 6 months
Ensure LOC operable for 6 months
SPACE
Excessive storage in SAG
FORCE
M&T ++
TIME …
CCIR
...
RFI
HNS capabilities/capacities CC CR
M&T availability CV
Use Only those with impact on mission analysis.
Add additional duplicate slides as necessary. 11

12. Key Factors and Deduction Time/Space/Force/Information
Conclusion
LOG minimum footprint
Increase HNS
Contract heavy spt
Bi/Multi lateral NSE cooperation
SPACE
LLOC to cover the onwards movement
FORCE
NSPA involvement in the Predeployment
TIME
Phase I early stage
CCIR …
RFI
HNS capabilities CC
... CR
Freedom of movement in PER, AUR CV
PER, AUR HNS capabilities in Class I
AUR collapse
Use Only those with impact on mission analysis. Use these slides to highlight the really important factors that have logistical impacts to the RD.
Add additional duplicate slides as necessary. 12 12

13. Key Factors and Deduction Time/Space/Force/Information
Conclusion
AUR
The implications, issues or considerations, derived from fact(s) that have operational significance.
What is the significance of the factor?
The outcome or result reached that requires action in planning or further analysis.
What can or should be done? Fit each into a category below FS
Timeline
Action
CCIR
RFI CC CR CV
Use Only those with impact on mission analysis.
Add additional duplicate slides as necessary. 13 13

14. Critical Logistics Requirements
What are the critical logistics requirements to support the joint force in terms of deployment and sustainment. What have you identified that the logisticians must do in order to support the Joint Force? Provide as much detail as you have available.
Who: Size, & composition of force
What: Anticipated mission & OP Tempo
Where: Final destinations and size of the theater
When: Timings…when do you need the required capabilities at their final destinations?
As mission analysis is taking place, the JOPG LOG Planner must capture military requirements, sustainment, and strategic support required to accomplish the mission.. Additionally, any assumptions established in order to continue planning must be noted and a RFI on that subject submitted to SHAPE. FPG-L 52 14 14

15. Logistics Planning Assumptions
List any assumptions that you have made during your analysis of key factors
Remember that assumptions must be:
Logical
Realistic
Necessary - Planning can not continue unless an assumption is made
Valid – if assumption turns out to be false, framework of problem would have to be readdressed. 15

16. LIMITATIONS Identify Constraints and Restraints from SSA, MRO, SPD
CONSTRAINTS (Must Do)
RESTRAINTS (Can’t Do)
Identify Constraints and Restraints from SSA, MRO, SPD
and list those with Operational and Logistics impacts 16 16

17. Centre of Gravity Analysis
Assessed Aim and desired Outcome: What is the actor’s main goal and what conditions does he seek to achieve by his actions?
Centre of Gravity: What is the primary element of power upon which an actor depends to accomplish his operational objectives (to be targeted in an opponent and protect in a friend)?
Critical Capabilities: What are the primary means that enables the COG to gain and maintain dominant influence over an opponent or situation?
Critical Vulnerabilities: What are the weaknesses, gaps or deficiencies in the key system elements and essential conditions, characteristics, capabilities, relationships, specific resources or influences through which the COG may be influenced or neutralised?
Critical requirements: What are those key system elements and essential conditions, characteristics, capabilities and influences required to generate and sustain the COG’s critical capabilities, such as specific assets, physical resources, or relationships with other actors?
Conclusions: Which weaknesses, gaps or deficiencies in the key system elements and essential conditions, characteristics, capabilities, relationships, specific resources or influences could be exploited to change the capabilities and behaviour of the actor and improve conditions in the operational environment?
Slide is provided as an aide in for conducting COG analysis on the following 4 slides. Hide or delete for presentation. 17 17

18. Alliance Centre of Gravity Analysis
Assessed Aim and desired Outcome: deter VUL, assist AUR in disrupting BLA and in re-establishing internal security, set conditions for NEO, provide FoM for UN HA.
Centre of Gravity:
CJTF
Critical Capabilities:
ability to deter VUL
ability to train AUR/PER
ability to disrupt BLA (ourselves)
ability to create a SASE
ability to sustain ourselves
ability to coordinate with external partners
Critical Vulnerabilities:
Extensive LOCs
Limited APOD/SPOD capability
Weather cond in winter
Degradation of Humanitarian situation
Critical requirements:
1-6: C2
1-5: FOA
- 1-5 : strategic deployment secured (within JOA)
RSOM-I in place
- 5: sustainment
- 6: robust liaison & training capacity
Conclusions:CJTF effectiveness depends on early activation/availability of Strategic assets, sourcing of force package and intelligence data. Furthermore, protection of APOD/SPOD is critical.
This slide has been provided by the LOG REP to the JOPG for further analysis by the RD LOPG. Conduct logistics analysis and provide input where required. Provide inputs in RED. 18 18

19. UN Centre of Gravity Analysis
Assessed Aim and desired Outcome: Security for UN refugees camps and maintain flow of HA.
Centre of Gravity:
UNMA Humanitarian Mission
Critical Capabilities:
1 Act with legitimacy
2 Intervene in critical area
Critical Vulnerabilities:
2 a 1 Force Protection not adequate
2 b 1 LOC not secured
2 c 1 APOD not available
Critical requirements:
1 a UN SC Resolutions
2 a Force protection (UNSECFORA)
2 b Freedom of movement
2 c Access to APOD/SPOD
Conclusions: Intervene with force protection, secure LOC and reopen Capella Airport.
This slide has been provided by the LOG REP to the JOPG for further analysis by the RD LOPG. Conduct logistics analysis and provide input where required. Provide inputs in RED.

20. AURIGA Centre of Gravity Analysis
Assessed Aim and desired Outcome: preserve its territorial integrity and stability
Centre of Gravity:
Security forces
Critical Capabilities:
1 Mantain control of its territory
2 Cooperate with PER Security Forces
3 Defeat BLA
4 Protect DPREs
5 Control of critical infrastructures
Critical Vulnerabilities:
1 a 1 Moral
3 a 1 Lack of Training
3 b 1 Credibility
3 b 2 Cohesion
Critical requirements:
1 a FoM
1 b High mobility/terrain Equipment
3 a COIN TTPs
3 b Effective C2
4 a Logistics
Conclusions: Keep working on AUR specific training, strengthening logistic capacity, establishing FoM, supporting them in fighting BLA and in keeping the territorial integrity.
This slide has been provided by the LOG REP to the JOPG for further analysis by the RD LOPG. Conduct logistics analysis and provide input where required. Provide inputs in RED.

21. PERSEUS Centre of Gravity Analysis
Assessed Aim and desired Outcome: Maintain the control of the territory and sustain AUR in containing BLA
Centre of Gravity:
Security Forces
Critical Capabilities:
1 Defeat BLA
2 Support Auriga
3 Maintain its territorial integrity
4 Protect energy infrastructures
5 Maintain population support
Critical Vulnerabilities:
1 a 1 Air Defence Force weakness
1 a 2 Limited numbers of modern weapons systems
2 b 1 Low military readiness
2 b 2 Lack of Training
5 a 1 Control of HA and of DPREs flow
Critical requirements:
1 a COIN TTPs
2 a Logistics
2 b Capable Fighting Force
4 a Access to SPOE/SPOD
5 a International ties
Conclusions: Increase Security Forces capabilities IOT defeat BLA and obtain a better control of the territory.
This slide has been provided by the LOG REP to the JOPG for further analysis by the RD LOPG. Conduct logistics analysis and provide input where required. Provide inputs in RED.

22. Batari National Movement Centre of Gravity Analysis
Assessed Aim and desired Outcome: to create an ethnically pure BATARI state.
Centre of Gravity:
BLA Fighters
Critical Capabilities:
1 Capability to attack refugees camp.
2 Control of etnhic batari area
3 Expel non BATARI people
4 Destabilise AURIGA
5 Acting as insurgency
Critical Vulnerabilities:
2 a 1 FOM in Kandar Valley
2 a 2 Differencies in council
Support/recruitment people
4 a 1 Financial resources (VUL/ Crime Organization)
4 a 2 VUL supply lines
a Cellphone network
Critical requirements:
1 a Weapons
1 b FOM
2 a Support of tribal council
4 a VUL support/logistic/training/ safe heavens
5 a C2 (1c)
a Communications (all)
Conclusions: Prevent destabilization actions in AUR performed by BLA, cutting VUL support. The operation will focus on limiting FOM mainly in the Kandar valley and decreasing C2 capabilities. Conduct INFO operations IOT exploit council differences and gain population support to limit the effects of hostile propaganda.
This slide has been provided by the LOG REP to the JOPG for further analysis by the RD LOPG. Conduct logistics analysis and provide input where required. Provide inputs in RED.

23. VUL Centre of Gravity Analysis
Assessed Aim and desired Outcome: Political, economic and military dominance of the Zoran Sea region in order to achieve regional hegemony.
Centre of Gravity:
VUL Intervention Forces
Critical Capabilities:
1 Deny/delay NATO’s access to the region
2 Deter/ threaten Alliance forces/ Partners
3 Directly intervene into AUR/PER
4 Support the BLA (use as proxy org.)
Critical Vulnerabilities:
3 a 1 Limited avenues of approach to AUR/PER
3 b 1 Logistics and sustainment of long term operations
3 b 2 Simultaneous ops (AUR/PER) (3c)
3 b 3 LOCs and links (phys/influence) with BLA (4a)
3 c 1 Joint C2 structure and not capable for efficient joint operations
a Energy exports (In case of VUL’s intervention embargo should be applied- UNSCR)
Critical requirements:
1&2 Submarines, mines, SOF, Air force
2 a TBMs, WMD (Counter WMD, TBMs capabilities required)
2 b Aggressive Government (Deterrence required, PsyOps )
3 a Armoured land forces
3 b Operational sustainment (logistics, reinforcement)
3 c Effective C2
4 a Training, bases and equipments for the BLA
4 b Effective supply chain (LLOCs)
a Dependence on energy/drugs exports
Conclusions: Prevent VUL from hampering our deployment to the Kama Sea (particularly with their maritime component) in coordination with SAG. TBMD may be vital should VUL launch a TBM attack. Cutting the support (physical links and influence) to BLA will prevent VUL’s proxy to act effectively. Should VUL armed forces attack, operations should focus on limited logistics capacity and joint C2 to degrade ability to conduct/continue operations. Furthermore, military reactions should include the interdiction of their LOCs to prevent resupplies thereby further reducing their sustainment.

24. Operational Risks Operational Risk Assessment: Risk Name (Select 1 &
Source
Consequence for
Severity
Probability
- Actions of the opponent(s).
- Actions of friendly forces.
- Operational environmental factors.
- Overall mission
- Line of operation
- Decisive Points
- Desired effect.
Extremely high - could result failure to accomplish mission.
High - could result in failure to accomplish one or more objectives.
Moderate - could result in failure to meet criteria for success or exceed time, space, forces/actors limits
Low - minimal impact on mission accomplishment
Select one &
Delete rest for presentation)
- High
- Moderate
- Low
(Select 1 &
Delete rest)
Risk Management
Can we neutralise the source?
Can we reduce our vulnerability to the source of the risk?
Can we limit the consequence and/or severity of the occurrence?
Can we reduce the probability of occurrence?
Conclusion
Unacceptable - risk management cannot reduce risk to an acceptable level!
Conditionally acceptable - risk can be reduced to an acceptable level by taking actions to:
Modify force disposition/posture/composition.
Adjust current operations.
Prepare branch plan or sequel.
Acceptable, no risk management actions required
Provide your analysis to the JOPG Log Rep. Complete one slide for each major risk evaluated in terms of logistics, sustainment, and movement. 24 24

25. Logistics Input into Operational Design
Review the following 4 slides from the JOPG
Review and evaluate the DC/Effects
Has the JOPG gotten this right? If not…what are your inputs?
What are the Key actions logisticians will have to take to support the effects and DCs?tional Design? Keep them broad and focus on the most important actions.
The next 4 Slides have been provided by JOPG as reference information for evaluation and input if required.
Evaluate the DC and Effects. From a logistics perspective, is there a need for additional DC/DPs or Effects? Do they DC/DPs include the most vital conditions that need to be established to meet objectives and end-state? Remember, as long as an effect (log) or action will lead to a DC, it may not be necessary to add an additional DC. Provide any recommended DCon Joint Effects and Joint Actions (Hide or delete for actual presentation)

26. Objectives For Reference Only
MSO 1. Prevention of further escalation and widening of the Zoran Sea conflict;
MSO 2. Uninterrupted international access to the region and its resources;
MSO 3. Support Aurigan efforts to achieve and maintain a safe and secure environment.
MSO 4. Enable safe delivery of humanitarian aid and access to DPRE camps.
MSO 5. Deter Vulpecula.
MSO 6. Isolate BLA Insurgency
OO 1. Contribute to the deterrence of Vulpecula
OO 2. Assist Auriga in defeating any external aggression
OO 3. Assist Auriga to re-establish internal security
OO 4. Provide for the freedom of movement for UN humanitarian activities
OO 5. Enable freedom of access to the region and its energy resources
BPT 1. Set the conditions for NEO
BPT 2. Conduct interdiction operations in support of a potential embargo
BPT 3. Support PER to maintain / re-establish territorial integrity
Slide has been provided by JOPG as reference information . (Hide or delete for actual presentation)
MSO= Military Strategic Objective (SHAPE)
OO=Operational Objective (JFC)
BPT=Be Prepared to (JFC)

27. For Reference Only VUL CoG MSO1 MSO5 BLA CoG COIN
Initial
Deployment
Early Deployment
Deployment & Shaping
SASE
Handover
International peace and security in the Zoran Sea region is restored with full implementation of all UNSC resolutions, and the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Alliance partners is preserved.
VUL
CoG
G-Day
OE: 1
D + 30
OE: 6 De t e r
& D f a
OE:
2,3,4
OE: 5
D + 120
MSO1
AUR
CoG
OO1 8 9 10 11
MSO5
OO2 BP 16 17 18
MSO3
BPT3
ALLIANCE
CoG
OE:
11,12
BLA
CoG OE 17
OE:
15,16
OE:
9,10
COIN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
OO3
MSO6
OE:8
OE:
13,14
OE: 18 UN
CoG
Slide has been provided by JOPG as reference information for requested input on DC/Effects. (Hide or delete for actual presentation)
OE: 21
OE: 20
OE:19
FoM
OO4
MSO2 12 13 14 15
OO5
MSO4
PER
CoG
BPT1
For Reference Only
BPT2

28. Decisive Conditions – By LoO
Deter & Defeat
VUL deterred
AUR SF trained
Terrorist activity mitigated
AUR SF capable of independent ops
Freedom of Movement
VUL naval forces contained
LLOCs secured
HA delivered without interruption
Critical nodes secured
COIN
SLOCs secured
CIA open & operational
GoA stabilized
BLA fractured
BLA isolated
SASE established in AUR
GoA – Bataris dialogue established
Branch plan
VUL offensive operations ceased
AUR territorial integrity re-established
PER territorial integrity re-established 8 1 9 2 10 3 11 4 5 6 7 12 13 14 15 16
Slide has been provided by JOPG as reference information for requested input on DC/Effects (Hide or delete for actual presentation) 17 18
For Reference Only

29. Effects to be Achieved : For Reference OnlyNr
Effect
LOO 1 2 3
VUL SF returned to peace locations X
AUR police trained
AUR border control trained 4
AUR army trained 5
Terrorist attacks decreased 6
AUR army conduct ops without assistance 8
VUL threats on SLOCs neutralized 9
BLA attacks on CIA ceased 10
Civ/Mil traffic restored 11
Public support increased 12
Public services provided 13
Hardliners & Moderates separated 14
Tribal council spt to BLA decreased 15
Tribal council spt to BLA stopped 16
FoM for BLA denied 17
BLA attacks in Kandar Valley decreased 18
Comms between GoA and tribal council established 19
LOCs attacks reduced 20
Attacks on HA actors decreased 21
Attacks on pipelines decreased
Slide has been provided from the JOPG. The RD JOPG rep has asked that his staff review and provide RD-Log inputs into the effects. Has the JOPG accurately Slide has been provided by JOPG as reference information for requested input on Joint Actions (Hide or delete for actual presentation)

30. Commanders' Critical Information Requirements
CCIR NATO - UN
READINESS NATO JF
ACHIVEMENT OF FULL OPS CAPABILITY (NRF + FOLLOW ON FORCES )
REQUIREMENT OF ACTIVATION OR USAGE OF OPERATIONAL RESERVE
LOSS OF CRITICAL ASSETS/CAPABILITIES (tbd)
SPOD AND APOD UNDER ATTACK
ATTACK ON NATO SECURITY FORCES/FACILITIES
KIDNAPPING OF NATO SECURITY FORCES PERSONNEL AND VIPs
ATTACK ON UN ASSETS/FACILITIES OR REFUGEE CAMPS
Provided by the JOPG LOG REP. Requests RD LOPG provide inputs on following slide.
CCIR AURIGA AND PERSEUS
GOA COLLAPSE;
CIA UNAVAILABLE;
ATTACK SPOD IN PERSEUS;
ATTACKS ON CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES;
GOA/GOP SECURITY FORCES NOT ABLE TO CONTRAST BLA;
HUMANITARIAN CRISIS DETERIORED;
AURIGA/PERSEUS ATTACKED.

31. Commander’s Critical Information Requirements
Provide logistic inputs to the CCIRs 31 31

32. Agenda: Initial Force Estimate
Estimate of Required Capabilities
Preliminary C2 Arrangements 32

33. Initial Force Estimate
For reference: Delete for presentation
For Reference Only

34. Initial Force Estimate JLSG
JLSG HQ
JLSG HQ
JLSG HQ Sp Unit
JLSG HQ FP Coy
GROUND
TRANSPORTATION
LOG BASE
RSOM
SPOD
Supply Bn HQ
Ground
Transport. HQ
RSOM HQ
Sea Port Ops Coy
Ammo Storage Supply Coy
Cargo Transfer Unit
Slide provided from JLSG LNO. This is a JLSG tailored to support an NRF exercise.
POL Supply Coy
Cargo Truck Coy
Field Warehousing Coy
APOD
MOVCON Center
POL Truck Coy
Supply and Field Service Coy (mx)
MOVCON Teams
Water Truck Coy
AirPort Ops Coy
Staging Area
Support Unit
Water Purification Unit
Heavy Equipment
Transport Coy
Medical Log Coy
Force Protection Unit
Convoy Support
Centers
Role 3 Medical Facility
Gen Support Eng Coy
For Reference Only
POL Facility Const Unit 34 34

35. Logistics Required Capabilities
Identify and highlight any significant differences between required operational capabilities based on the mission analysis and the force capability requirements provided in the Strategic Planning Directive/Initial Force Estimate.
Provide assessment on the forces required. What gaps in capabilities have you identified between what is available and what actions-effects logisticians will have to create?
Provide a listing of what additional logistics capabilities you require in order to support the joint force.
Example: Capability to conduct RSOM in 3 distinct and geographically separated areas. IE: SAG, PER, & CIA.
Capability to coordinate ITAS operations in the JOA.

36. Preliminary C2 Arrangements
Portray your initial concept for the organization of the Joint Force.
Determine TOO/JOA requirements.
Determine required C2 functions and locations.
Determine critical liaison and coordination requirements.
Include NSEs in C2 arrangements
Include Role Specialist Nation & Lead Nation designations 36

37. Deployment Timeline
Provide a timeline based on the minimum amount of time required to deploy the NRF and follow-on forces. Highlight in this slide any critical timings. 37 37

38. Agenda: Proposed Planning Guidance
Tentative Missions for Subordinate Commands
Requests for SHAPE 38 38

39. Tentative Mission for Component (JLSG)
Draft mission statement for the JLSG. Be sure to include the following: Who, What, When, Where, & Why…plus the assigned objectives.
See Page 11 of SPD for an example from the COM JFC Naples mission statement. 39 39

40. Requests for SHAPE
Develop requests, requirements and issues that require action at the strategic level such as:
Requests for additional Crisis Response Measures (CRMs).
ROE requests.
Requests for Information
Pre-conditions for success.
Force requirements. 40 40

41. CONCLUSION
Provide any additional conclusions that are essential for the JFC to fully comprehend the operational problem to be solved or the specific operational conditions that must be achieved. 41 41