1. BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company. Copyright © 2004 Boeing. All rights reserved. Strategic Approach to Fire Safety 16 November 2004 Kendall Krieg Boeing Commercial Airplanes

2. Copyright © 2004 Boeing. All rights reserved. U.S.A. and Canadian Operators Accident Rates Hull Loss and/or Fatal accidents - Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet - 1959 through 2003 Accident rate (accidents per million departures) 2003 STATISTICAL SUMMARY, MAY 2004 Source: http://www.boeing.com/news/techissues/pdf/statsum.pdf Commercial jet transport has achieved significant improvements in safety in four decades, and has maintained a very low accident rate. Commercial jet transport has achieved significant improvements in safety in four decades, and has maintained a very low accident rate. 1 accident Worldwide (0.4 US) per Million departures

3. Copyright © 2004 Boeing. All rights reserved. Fire Safety Strategy Summary Similar to other accident causes, fire events were much more frequent in the early years of commercial jet aviation Similar to other accident causes, fire events were much more frequent in the early years of commercial jet aviation Many fire safety improvements have been adopted… cargo systems, seats, cabin materials, lavatories, insulation and so on Many fire safety improvements have been adopted… cargo systems, seats, cabin materials, lavatories, insulation and so on Fire accidents have been reduced to a very low rate Fire accidents have been reduced to a very low rate But today's fire safety strategy remains based on events from early in the history of jet transport But today's fire safety strategy remains based on events from early in the history of jet transport Proposed Strategic Focus Focus on the prevention of frequent ‘precursor’ events to enhance fire safety Focus on the prevention of frequent ‘precursor’ events to enhance fire safety

4. Copyright © 2004 Boeing. All rights reserved. Timeline of Regulatory Change - Materials Example 1945 CAR 4B Cabin Materials 1988 CFR 25-66 CFR 121-198 Smoke Release 1986 CFR 25-60 CFR 121-202 Cargo Liners 1972 CFR 25-32 Cabin Materials FIRE SAFETY REGULATION TIME LINE 2003 CFR 25-110 CFR 121-289 Insulation 1940 1967 CFR 25-15 CFR 121-30 Cabin Materials 1984 CFR 25-59 CFR 121-184 Seat Cushions 1986 CFR 25-61 CFR 121-189 Heat Release Source: J. Peterson (Boeing) - modified Fire strategy historically based on prior events 727 Salt Lake L1011 Riyadh MD11 Peggy’s Cove 737 Manchester

5. Copyright © 2004 Boeing. All rights reserved. Overheat, Smoke and/or Ignition Fire Propagation Significant Impact Contamination and Materials Involvement Frequent Rare Event Progress Increasing Impact

6. Copyright © 2004 Boeing. All rights reserved. Ignition and Overheat Prevention Flammability Reduction Detection and Suppression Procedures Counter Methods for Fire Events Proactive Reactive  Focus strategy on ‘proactive prevention’ Source: K. Krieg/R. Nicholson/T. Porter (Boeing)

7. Copyright © 2004 Boeing. All rights reserved. Flammability Reduction Detection and Suppression Procedures Insulation Film Flammability Aging Wiring Research (complete) Reduced Flammability Hidden Materials Wiring Other Materials Smart Circuit Breaker Development Improved Crew Procedures Halon Replacement (*) -Potty Bottles -Hand-helds -Cargo Component Overheat Protection (on-going) Accident Investigation Analysis, Recommendations Design Changes Procedure Changes Service Bulletins Airworthiness Directives Corrective Action Hidden Area Contamination and aging materials Detector- False Alarm Reduction Research Detection/Suppression in Hidden Areas Insulation Burn- Through Resistance Pressurized Compartment Industry Fire Safety Activities Improved Cabin Materials (low heat release) Consistency of test standards (Seats/OSU) Suppression in Cabin Area Brominated Fire Retardant (BFR) Reduction (*) Source: K. Krieg/R. Nicholson/T. Porter (Boeing) Focus, Priority, Effectiveness … Strategy? Ignition and Overheat Prevention Enhanced Depowering (*) Note: Not safety enhancement, however common industry resources

8. Copyright © 2004 Boeing. All rights reserved. Post Crash Fuel-Fed Fires Prevention Flammability Reduction Detect and Suppress Proc. Post Crash Fuel-Fed Fire  Accident Prevention through CAST

9. Copyright © 2004 Boeing. All rights reserved. Source: http://www.boeing.com/news/techissues/pdf/statsum.pdf Fatalities by Accident Category Fatal Accidents - Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet: 1994 - 2003 32222162313246218 Number of fatal accidents 105 total Note: Accidents involving multiple, non-onboard fatalities are included Accidents involving single, non-onboard fatalities are excluded Fatalities/accidents are placed in one category only. * CFIT = Controlled Flight Into Terrain ** RTO = Refused Takeoff Fatalities 1 CFIT*In-flight fire Mid-air collision Fuel tank explosion LandingTakeoff configuration Fuel exhaustion Wind shear Runway incursion Loss of control in flight UnknownTurbulenceRTO**Misc. fatality Total Fatalities = 6,795 (6,484 onboard) 2003 fatalities = 484 (483 onboard) Structure 103 2,131 121 1,701 420 339 231 225 85 192 121 37 29 12 32 1 258 502 2003 STATISTICAL SUMMARY, MAY 2004 Prevention Flammability Reduction Detect and Suppress Proc. Post Crash Fuel-fed Fire (Potential)

10. Copyright © 2004 Boeing. All rights reserved. 1.1 Government and industry should establish a national goal to reduce the aviation fatal accident rate by a factor of five within ten years and conduct safety research to support that goal 1.2The FAA should develop standards for continuous safety improvement, and should target its regulatory resources based on performance against those standards Source: Safer Skies Briefing, 6/2003, K. Olsen (FAA) In the U.S., our focus was set by the White House Commission on Aviation Safety

11. Copyright © 2004 Boeing. All rights reserved. The National Civic Aviation Review Commission (NCARC) on Aviation Safety Provided Additional Direction FAA and the aviation industry must develop a strategic plan to improve safety, with specific priorities based on objective, quantitative analysis of safety information and data Government should expand on their programs to improve aviation safety in other parts of the world Source: Safer Skies Briefing, 6/2003, K. Olsen (FAA)

12. Copyright © 2004 Boeing. All rights reserved. CAST Goals l Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007 l Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate Dollars/Flt. Cyc Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents 100 80 60 40 20 0 Historic cost of accidents/flt. cyc 73 % Risk Reduction Savings ~ $56/Flt. Cyc Or ~ $620 Million Dollars/Yr. Cost of Accident fatalities following implementation of the CAST plan @ 2007 levels 20022007 1998 Prevention Flammability Reduction Detect and Suppress Proc. Post Crash Fuel-fed Fire (Potential) Source: Safer Skies Briefing, 6/2003, K. Olsen (FAA)

13. Copyright © 2004 Boeing. All rights reserved. Source: Safer Skies Briefing, 6/2003, K. Olsen (FAA) Hull Loss & Fatal Accidents (U.S.) Percentage of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the CAST Plan (2007 Implementation Values) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Total LOC Flt CFIT Fire/Explosion Runway Collision LOC GND Midair Crew Inc Eng-UCEF Sys-Comp Turbulence Evac Percentage of Risk Risk Eliminated Risk Remaining CAST 1987-2000 Fatal/Hull Loss Dataset – Security events excluded. Prevention Flammability Reduction Detect and Suppress Proc. Post Crash Fuel-fed Fire (Potential) LOC = Loss of control

14. Copyright © 2004 Boeing. All rights reserved. In-Flight Hidden Fires Prevention Flammability Reduction Detect and Suppress Proc. In-flight Hidden Fires  Prevention

15. Copyright © 2004 Boeing. All rights reserved. In-Flight Hidden Fires Significant progress has been made in reducing major fire events. Significant progress has been made in reducing major fire events. Frequent small scale smoke and fire events continue to occur Frequent small scale smoke and fire events continue to occur Smaller events are ‘precursor’ to the very rare significant smoke/fire events Smaller events are ‘precursor’ to the very rare significant smoke/fire events Industry addresses events based on single event diagnosis Industry addresses events based on single event diagnosis Also, there are significant economic impact of small events due to air turn backs, diversions, and subsequent maintenance Also, there are significant economic impact of small events due to air turn backs, diversions, and subsequent maintenance A different approach based on ‘root cause’ criteria that focuses on prevention is now required to reduce risk of major fires and improves economics A different approach based on ‘root cause’ criteria that focuses on prevention is now required to reduce risk of major fires and improves economics Use the CAST ‘data driven’ process as a model for in-flight fires Use the CAST ‘data driven’ process as a model for in-flight fires Focus industry resources on global solutions, processes and tools to prevent small scale frequent fire and smoke events to reduce the risk of major events Focus industry resources on global solutions, processes and tools to prevent small scale frequent fire and smoke events to reduce the risk of major events Prevention Flammability Reduction Detect and Suppress Proc. In-flight Hidden Fires

16. Copyright © 2004 Boeing. All rights reserved. Source: Boeing, Aero Magazine, No. 14, April 2001J. Morton, R. Nicholson http://www.boeing.com/commercial/aeromagazine/aero_14/ Smoke Event Sources for a Representative Airplane Model – November 1992 through April 2001 Environmental Control System Electrical Power Galley Wiring IFE No Data Flight Deck Equip Cargo ECS Inlet Air Fuel/Hydraulic Other Maintenance Lighting APU Window Heat/Heaters Engine Galley Contents Smoking material Electrical Source 64% Material Source 12% Air Conditioning Source 14% Prevention Flammability Reduction Detect and Suppress Proc. In-flight Hidden Fires Prime source of Small up to Significant Hidden In-flight Fires

17. Copyright © 2004 Boeing. All rights reserved. In-Flight Hidden Fire Event Sequence - Example Prevention Flammability Reduction Detect and Suppress Proc. In-flight Hidden Fires

18. Copyright © 2004 Boeing. All rights reserved. Conclusions and Recommendations Post-Crash Fuel-Fed Fire Post-Crash Fuel-Fed Fire  Fire Safety Industry adopt and accept the CAST Risk Reduction plan for accident prevention. Worldwide implementation through ICAO and others Worldwide implementation through ICAO and others In-Flight Hidden Fires In-Flight Hidden Fires  Fire Safety Industry Should Implement: Improved maintenance practices and methods - ATSRAC Improved maintenance practices and methods - ATSRAC Systems ‘over-current’ and ’over-heat’ protection (1) Systems ‘over-current’ and ’over-heat’ protection (1) Non-Essential Equipment standards enhancement Non-Essential Equipment standards enhancement Aftermarket (STC) equipment installation standards enhancement Aftermarket (STC) equipment installation standards enhancement Smart Circuit Breaker (arc fault/GFI) with fault ID servicing tools (1) Smart Circuit Breaker (arc fault/GFI) with fault ID servicing tools (1) Contamination/Aging – Materials and Maintenance Contamination/Aging – Materials and Maintenance  The UK AAIB advocates a similar approach:  Bulletin No: 6/2004, Dated 21 May 2004. (2) (2)Source:http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_avsafety/doc uments/page/dft_avsafety_029072.hcsp (1) Priority on non-critical systems

19. Copyright © 2004 Boeing. All rights reserved. Conclusions and Recommendations (cont’d) Recommend: Industry Strategic Steering Committee (CAST like) for all fire types: Recommend: Industry Strategic Steering Committee (CAST like) for all fire types: Industry working together to measurable common goals (i.e. standards) to enhance safety Industry working together to measurable common goals (i.e. standards) to enhance safety Data Driven Process focused on Prevention Data Driven Process focused on Prevention Forensic: Forensic: Identify and eliminate the historical risks Identify and eliminate the historical risks Diagnostic Diagnostic Identify and eliminate the current risks Identify and eliminate the current risks Prognostic Prognostic Forecast the future risks and design them out of the future Forecast the future risks and design them out of the future Target resources and implementation process for maximum effective industry value Target resources and implementation process for maximum effective industry value Boeing supports and is ready to participate in industry team(s) based on PREVENTION. Boeing supports and is ready to participate in industry team(s) based on PREVENTION. Prevention Flammability Reduction Detect and Suppress Proc.

20. Copyright © 2004 Boeing. All rights reserved.