1. COUNTDOWN TO COPENHAGEN Understanding the negotiations: From Kyoto through Bali to Copenhagen and beyond Mithika Mwenda COORDINATOR PAN AFRICAN CLMATE JUSTICE ALLIANCE Tel: +254-20-4441483, 4441338/9, Cell: +254-724-403 555 Fax: +254-20-4443241/4445835 Email: mwemithika@yahoo.com, jmwenda@aacc-ceta.org, info@pacja.org mwemithika@yahoo.comjmwenda@aacc-ceta.orginfo@pacja.orgmwemithika@yahoo.comjmwenda@aacc-ceta.orginfo@pacja.org

2. BACKGROUND OF UNFCCC Emerged on the political agenda in the mid-1980s with the increasing scientific evidence of human interference in the global climate system and with growing concern about the environment. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide policy makers with authoritative scientific information in 1988. IPCC was tasked with assessing the state of scientific knowledge concerning climate change, evaluating its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts, and formulating realistic policy advice.

3. BACKGROUND OF UNFCCC The IPCC published its first report in 1990 concluding that the growing accumulation of human-made greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would enhance the greenhouse effect, resulting on average in an additional warming of the Earths surface by the next century, unless measures were adopted to limit emissions. The report confirmed that climate change was a threat and called for an international treaty to address the problem.

4. BACKGROUND OF UNFCCC The UN General Assembly responded by formally launching negotiations for a framework convention on climate change and establishing an Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC) to develop the treaty. Negotiations to formulate an international treaty on global climate protection began in 1991 and resulted in the completion, by May 1992, of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

5. BACKGROUND OF UNFCCC The UNFCCC was opened for signature during the UN Conference on Environment and Development (the Earth Summit) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in June 1992, and entered into force in March 1994.

6. BACKGROUND OF UNFCCC OBJECTIVE OF THE CONVENTION The Convention sets an ultimate objective of stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at safe levels. To achieve this objective, all countries have a general commitment to address climate change, adapt to its effects, and report their actions to implement the Convention.

7. BACKGROUND OF UNFCCC The Convention divides countries into two groups: Annex I Parties, the industrialised countries who have historically contributed the most to climate change, and Non-Annex I Parties, which include primarily the developing countries. African countries belong to Non-Annex I category, and have no obligation to cut down its greenhouse gases.

8. BACKGROUND OF UNFCCC The objective could not be achieved since there were no legally binding obligations for any party to reduce its greenhouse gases Meanwhile science continued to warn of dire consequences if the community of nation failed to seriously address the increased concentration of ghg gases in the atmosphere.

9. BACKGROUND OF UNFCCC KYOTO PROTOCOL Required countries to take commitment to reduce ghgs Agreed in Japan in 1997 during COP3 Entered into force in 2005 Focused on mitigation (market-based) Gave little priority to adaptation Resultant mechanisms – Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) which has not worked for Africa and the poor

10. WHERE WE ARE NOW… Legal mandate of Kyoto expires by 2012 There should be no vacuum Science is very clear – we have reached the tipping point IPCC-AR4, 2007 Global consensus that CC will have effects on all efforts to reduce poverty, e.g. MDGs Global dialogue for a regime to succeed Kyoto protocol which should be pro-poor, people-driven, equitable and just Endless game of musical chairs – always shifting goalposts

11. THE NORTH-SOUTH IMPASSE Divided house - a lot of suspicion in discussions – conflicting positions North wants South to take commitments South says North has historical responsibility to assist in adaptation, reduce ghgs, etc Some in South say they should be allowed to pollute to reach the same level as North The civil society want a middle-ground, where all should take responsibility but putting into consideration their levels of development

12. RACING AGAINST TIME… Parties agreed on Bali Roadmap This is intended to build consensus on main pillars of post-2012 climate change regime: AdaptationAdaptation MitigationMitigation Technology transfer and deploymentTechnology transfer and deployment FinanceFinance Positive development: the roadmap has brought adaptation at the fore of negotiations – adaptation will find more space after 2009

13. NO PROGRESS IN POZNAN & BONN I, II, III The lack of substantive progress overshadowed three positive process related outcomes : 1.A commitment to shift from discussion mode to full negotiating mode in 2009 2.A programme and schedule of talks in the run up to Copenhagen was agreed 3.The Adaptation Fund, set up to help poorer countries deal with climate change, is now operational

14. PARTIES YET TO MAKE PROGRESS ON: 1. A shared comprehensive equitable vision for the negotiations 2.The adequacy of emission reductions targets for Annex 1 countries 3.The scale and nature of the obligation of Annex 1 countries to provide adequate financial and technological support for clean development, avoided deforestation and adaptation in developing countries

15. PARTIES YET TO MAKE PROGRESS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Want Annex I parties to make ambitious emissions cuts (40%) in the 2 nd commitment period Are not responsible and should not be subjected to international legally binding emissions reductions. They will try their best but their efforts depend on finance and technology from developed countries DEVELOPED COUNTRIES Main aim is to get Annex II parties to make deeper intl commitments on mitigation Agree to common but differentiated responsibilities and resepective capabilities but by this they mean developing countries must be differentiated in terms of their obligations

16. PARTIES YET TO MAKE PROGRESS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Shared vision includes all aspects of building blocks of finance, technology, mitigation, adaptation Global goal of emission reduction is not a stand-alone issue, but must be derived from an equity-based approach in which the developed countries and developing countries contributions are clearly different, based on justice. DEVELOPED COUNTRIES Stressing only the long- term global goal of emission reduction in the shared vision as the main outcome in Copenhagen

17. PARTIES YET TO MAKE PROGRESS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES MITIGATION: Stress that their mitigation actions can be enhanced subject to (Measurable, reportable and Verifiable (MRV) only on condition and the extent of enabling and supported finance and technology which have to be MRVed. Actions, not outcomes can be MRVed. FINANCE & TECHNOLOGY: Concrete and adequate implementation of commitments by developed countries key to unblock the impasse; issues on this should be resolved upfront. DEVELOPED COUNTRIES Want maximum obligations from developing countries; they want mitigation actions to be subjected to reduction commitments Keeping their positions on this vague. They want to see developing countries actions first & developing countries should also contribute. Fear is that they eventually have little to offer.

18. PARTIES YET TO MAKE PROGRESS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES FINANCE: A financial structure under the UNFCCC, with certain principles A substantial quantum; G77/China pushing for 0.1% of GNP; US$200B to US$400B Annually Should be aid but payment under UNFCCC Supremacy of UNFCCC DEVELOPED COUNTRIES Dont want new structure under the UNFCCC, with certain principle & prefer existing Funds; World Bank, Bilateral Aid, etc.

19. KEY DATES (INTERNATIONAL) SEVERAL INTERNATIONAL MEETINGS IN THE COUNTDOWN TO COPENHAGEN 29 March – 8 April 2009 – AWG, Bonn 1 - 14 June – SBSTA 30, Bonn, 10 August 2009 - 14 August 2009. Bonn, Germany, Informal meetings of the AWG-LCA and AWG-KP 22 September 2009, UN H/Q, New York, US; high-level event on climate change for Heads of State and Government, by UN Secretary-General Ad hoc Working Group for Long-term Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA) 7 and Ad hoc Working Group for the Enhancement of Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) 9, 28 September - 9 October, Bangkok, Thailand 2 November 2009 - 6 November 2009, Barcelona, Spain. A resumed AWG-LCA and the AWG-KP9 7 - 18 December 2009, Copenhagen, Denmark. UNFCCC COP 15 and Kyoto Protocol COP/MOP 5 End of 2012 – Deadline for ratification of a new Climate deal

20. KEY DATES (AFRICA) AMCEN is leading the consolidation of a unified African position – mandated by AU Has an elaborate plan of action on continental engagement 23 – 29 May 2009: 3 rd AMCEN Session on climate change, Nairobi, Kenya PACJA CS meeting – 23 - 24 1 – 3: AU Heads of States Assembly on climate change, Sirte, Libya 24 August 2009; Conference of African Heads of States and Governments on CC, shifted to Libya Eastern Africa Climate Equity Summit – Nairobi, Kenya, April 2009 Southern Africa Climate Equity meeting, Johannesburg, SA, May 2009 1st Pre-AMCEN African CS consultative workshop, Nairobi, Kenya, 2009 Pan African Parliamentary Climate Summit, Yaoundé, Cameroon, 25 – 27, June 2009 African Parliamentary Summit on Climate Change, October, Nairobi, Kenya 4 th Special AMCEN session on CC, 19 – 21 Oct. - Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 2 nd African civil society consultative/strategy workshop, 16 – 18, Oct, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia COMESA IS PLAYING A KEY ROLE IN THIS MOBILISATION

21. First commitment period 2009 7 – 18 Dec 2009 2010 8 - 19 November 2010 2011 28 Nov 2011 - 9 Dec 2011 2012 26 Nov 2012 - 7 Dec 2012 COP15 Copenhagen COP16 Latin America COP17 SA COP18 Asia Copenhagen dealAccordsRatification and entry into force of Copenhagen deal Period of capacity building for new mechanisms and modalities, mobilization of adaptation finance, transfers of technologies and urgent action to (at least) fulfil (KP) targets by developed countries

22. Second commitment period 20132014201520162017 COP19COP20COP21COP22COP23 Start of 3 rd commitment period negotiations (CP3) (2018-2022) Review of science as part of CP3 negotiations End of negotiations for CP3, including Accords Ratification and entry into force of CP3 deal

23. URGENT & COLLECTIVE ACTIONS Consolidation of a critical mass: All stakeholders in Africa; governments, private sector and civil society should work together to boost their numbers & enhance visibility Coalition of the willing and missionary approach: need to convert more, particularly influential constituencies, by creating awareness through appropriate channels: open air meetings, churches/mosques, parliaments, media, youth groups, women group, CBOs, petitions, etc

24. URGENT & COLLECTIVE ACTIONS Negotiators: Keeping a watchful eye and tracking African negotiators in UNFCCC and demanding report-back (accountability) Pressure to governments: ensuring that negotiators are fully supported by their governments; technically & financially Representation: African governments should be fully represented; due to lack of sufficient resources, civil society should work with government delegations as they can use their own resources

25. URGENT & COLLECTIVE ACTIONS FARNPAN, OTHER STATES & NON-STATE ACTORS Should not be passive spectators in the debate How should you engage others? FARNPAN under ACCID is playing key role in general stakeholder engagement at continental & intl level What strategic alliances should FARNPAN and Southern African governments establish? What plans will SADC/FARNPAN play in Copenhagen? And in Africa?

26. Asante sana Kea Leboha (Lesotho) THANK YOU!