1. Coastal Process Modeling US Army Corps of Engineers Jeff Hanson Research Oceanographer MORPHOS Program Manager US Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) Field Research Facility (FRF) - Duck, NC NOAA NWS Ocean Modeling Workshop, NCEP, 14-15 January 2008

2. Field Research Facility Established in 1977 to Advance Coastal Knowledge Through Research and Discovery Observations Modeling Model Validations

3. MORPHOS Program Advancing Coastal Process Research, Modeling and Risk Assessment WavesCirculation Atmosphere Sediment MISSION: Develop, verify and apply a physics based coastal and estuarine simulation and prediction capability with emphasis on storm-driven events 2004 2005

4. WavesCirculation Atmosphere Sediment MORPHOS Program Elements Community Steering Coastal Modeling System Research and Development Community Tools Risk Assessment Project Design Event Reconstruction Test and Evaluation Critical Data Sets Model Test Bed

5. Morphos Program Team Oceanweather Inc. Baird and Associates, Inc Applied Research Associates, Inc. Non-Linear Waves, Inc. Risk Engineering, Inc. Watershed Concepts Inc Waves and Solitons, LLC Alkyon Hydraulic Consultancy & Research Woolpert, Inc. Private Industry Government Agencies US Army Corps of Engineers NOAA NCEP, National Weather Service USGS Woods Hole Science Center Academic Institutions University of North Carolina University of Delaware Brigham-Young University DelftTU

6. Ecosystem Process Habitat, Water Quality Nearshore Process Morphology Change Regional Circulation Model Water Levels, Surge Basin Wave ModelRegional Wave Model Coastal Response Modeling Basin WindsRegional Winds Meteorology Model Need: Dynamic, 2-Way Model Coupling Risk/Climate Model Storm Parameters: Tracks, Intensity, Size, Probability Historical Storms

7. North Carolina Floodplain Mapping Program

8. Model Validation Test Bed: IOOS Partnership Analysis Data Bank Performance Evaluation Model Diagnostics Process Models WavesCirculation Atmosphere Morphology Model Evaluation and Diagnostics System (MEDS) High-Quality Measurements Concept Diagram

9. Model Validation Test Bed: IOOS Partnership Analysis Data Bank Performance Evaluation Model Diagnostics Process Models WavesCirculation Atmosphere Morphology Model Evaluation and Diagnostics System (MEDS) High-Quality Measurements Concept Diagram Observation IOOS Linkage

10. Model Validation Test Bed: IOOS Partnership Analysis Data Bank Performance Evaluation Model Diagnostics Process Models WavesCirculation Atmosphere Morphology Model Evaluation and Diagnostics System (MEDS) High-Quality Measurements Concept Diagram Modeling IOOS Linkage Observation IOOS Linkage

11. FRF Modeling: SWAN Nearshore Waves

12. FRF Model Validation Page: Integration of Coastal Observations

13. Tropical Storm Noel SWAN Model Validation

14. Wave Model Evaluation and Diagnostics System (WaveMEDS) Temporal Correlation Quantile- Quantile Statistics are performed on any measured attribute -Error Metrics include - RMS Error - Bias - Scatter Index - Circular Correlation and Bias (directions) Model Performance Scores - Folded with sample size weighting function WaveMEDS

15. Coastal Modeling Collaboration Opportunities Historical Storm Archive- track parameters Risk assessment technology Computational grid development – high res topo/bathy High-fidelity model technology advances Dynamic model coupling – capture the physics Collection of critical data sets Quantitative model test and evaluation -Test Bed USACE Mission Critical Needs:

16. Thank you…