1. A partnership involving: University of South Carolina University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science SC Department of Health and Environmental Control NOAA Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomolecular Research NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserve System NC/SC RCOOS SECOORA IOOS Coastal Zone 2011 - US IOOS: Tracking Water Quality Chicago, IL 20 July 2011 Regional Water Quality Concerns at the Local Level: The Role of Regional Associations in Improving Public Health Decision Making

2. Setting the stage Water quality concerns Implications of swimming advisories Beach advisory modeling Outcomes of integrative efforts Outline: Coastal Zone 2011 - US IOOS: Tracking Water Quality Chicago, IL 20 July 2011

3. Setting the stage Coastal Zone 2011 - US IOOS: Tracking Water Quality Chicago, IL 20 July 2011 State health agencies sample water quality (Enterococcus) at ocean beaches Results used to inform public of potential health risk Time from sample to analysis to decision can be > 24hrs Marissa Reilly, DHEC Region 7 In response to water quality concerns and associated public health concerns

4. Setting the stage Coastal Zone 2011 - US IOOS: Tracking Water Quality Chicago, IL 20 July 2011 Enterococcus levels Swimming advisories are issued if Enterococcus levels >500 MPN/100mL –Issue advisory >104 MPN/100mL –Resample Today’s advisory is based on yesterday’s water quality

5. Setting the stage Coastal Zone 2011 - US IOOS: Tracking Water Quality Chicago, IL 20 July 2011 Implications of swimming advisories Error of commission Issue advisory when water quality is good Poor image / revenue loss (i.e. the Chamber of Commerce is not happy) Error of omission Fail to issue advisory when water quality is poor Public health risk

6. Beach advisory modeling Coastal Zone 2011 - US IOOS: Tracking Water Quality Chicago, IL 20 July 2011 A potential improvement offered up to public health officials was that Enterococcus concentrations can be predicted with an accuracy adequate to assist decision-makers in the preemptive advisory process

7. Beach advisory modeling Coastal Zone 2011 - US IOOS: Tracking Water Quality Chicago, IL 20 July 2011 Perceived bottlenecks preventing prediction or timely response to critical public health and environmental events: Access and integrated use of distributed, heterogeneous data Insufficient density of appropriate data observations Insufficient predictive model development

8. Beach advisory modeling Coastal Zone 2011 - US IOOS: Tracking Water Quality Chicago, IL 20 July 2011

9. Model complexity is dependent upon Level 1Level 2Level 3 Cumulative Rainfall Rain Intensity Preceding Dry Days Weather Tidal Range Lunar Phase Station Cumulative Rainfall Rain Intensity Preceding Dry Days Weather Tidal Range Lunar Phase Station Wind Speed Wind Direction Cumulative Rainfall Rain Intensity Preceding Dry Days Weather Tidal Range Lunar Phase Station Wind Speed Wind Direction Current Salinity Coastal Zone 2011 - US IOOS: Tracking Water Quality Chicago, IL 20 July 2011 Beach advisory modeling Location Availability of data Acceptable error Modeling techniques MLR CART Ensemble models

10. Coastal Zone 2011 - US IOOS: Tracking Water Quality Chicago, IL 20 July 2011 Beach advisory modeling

11. % Type I Error (i.e. upsetting the Chamber of Commerce) % Type II Error (i.e. potential for increased health risks) Coastal Zone 2011 - US IOOS: Tracking Water Quality Chicago, IL 20 July 2011 Beach advisory modeling Focusing on error assessment

12. Models are now being used in support of issuing beach advisories Decreased decision error Increased support from local government Improved public health protection One of first/few marine/Enterococcus models One of first to use CART models Coastal Zone 2011 - US IOOS: Tracking Water Quality Chicago, IL 20 July 2011 Beach advisory modeling

13. ~ 14km! Beach advisory modeling Coastal Zone 2011 - US IOOS: Tracking Water Quality Chicago, IL 20 July 2011

14. Outcomes of integrative efforts Improving understanding of the role of technologies in addressing priority environmental and public health issues New observation infrastructure of additional real-time, continuous observations Improved knowledge of the data that exist to address coastal zone management issues in the region Rapid access to local data for managers, researchers, and the public via the interactive website Development of inter-agency “rapid response” efforts addressing priority health and management issues Improved coordination and communication among diverse, complimentary group of coastal agencies and organizations supporting proactive efforts rather than reactive response Coastal Zone 2011 - US IOOS: Tracking Water Quality Chicago, IL 20 July 2011

15. Acknowledgements USC – Madilyn Fletcher, Dwayne Porter, Dan Ramage, Jay Poucher, Jeremy Cothran, Jeff Jefferson, James Hibbert, Virginia Shervette, Emily McDonald, Erica Johnson Raytheon, Inc. – Carroll Hood University of Maryland – Heath Kelsey SCDHEC – Shannon Berry, Sean Torrens UNCW – Lynn Leonard, Jen Dorton Partners - NC/SC RCOOS, NI-WB NERR, NC NERR, ACE Basin NERR, SECOORA Funding: NOAA Geodetic Surveys and Services and SECOORA Coastal Zone 2011 - US IOOS: Tracking Water Quality Chicago, IL 20 July 2011