1. Kodi Monroe Sea Grant Weather & Climate Extension Agent National Severe Storms Laboratory Norman, OK CI-FLOW Project Coastal & Inland Flooding Observation and Warning

2. Origin of the CI-FLOW Project Initiated in response to Hurricanes Dennis & Floyd in Sep 1999 20-25 in of rain over 10 days River crests up to 24 ft above flood stage Storm surge as high as 10 ft Impacts 52 lives lost in North Carolina Homes: 7,000 destroyed; 17,000 uninhabitable; 56,000 damaged 30,000 hogs, 700,000 turkeys, & 2.4 million chickens drowned Warnings that tap water may contain high levels of fecal coliform bacteria

3. History of the CI-FLOW Project 2000: NOAA OAR & National Sea Grant Meeting Increase collaboration between Sea Grant Extension Network & OAR research labs Established Inland FLood Warning (IFLOW) Project to force OU hydrologic model with NSSL precipitation estimates National Sea Grant Office North Carolina Sea Grant S.C. Sea Grant Consortium

4. History of the CI-FLOW Project 2001: NCSU joins IFLOW Coupled hydrologic model forced with NSSL precipitation estimates to Coastal & Estuary Model & Environmental Prediction System (CEMEPS) 2006: IFLOW becomes CI-FLOW Sea Grant funds Weather & Climate Extension Agent position at NSSL NWS hydrologic model (HL-RDHM) implemented National Sea Grant Office North Carolina Sea Grant S.C. Sea Grant Consortium

5. History of the CI-FLOW Project 2008: CI-FLOW expands NOAA SECART funds nowCOAST portal OU & UNC researchers join CI-FLOW to include ADvanced CIRCulation model + unstructured Simulating WAves Nearshore model 2010: Hurricane Earl is first real-time test of CI-FLOW Established relationship with EPA 2011: Hurricane Irene is first robust test of CI-FLOW National Sea Grant Office North Carolina Sea Grant S.C. Sea Grant Consortium Texas Sea Grant

6. CI-FLOW Partners

7. Increasing Hydrologic Forecasting Capabilities In Coastal Watersheds Current NWS Forecast PointsCI-FLOW Forecast Points

8. CI-FLOW Precipitation Past rainfall: NSSL’s Next Generation QPE (Q2) Best practices of OHD’s Multi-sensor QPE (MPE) & NSSL’s National Mosaic & Multi-sensor QPE (NMQ) Gauge-adjusted 1-hour accumulation Uncorrected QPE available every 5 min at 1-km resolution Future rainfall: Hydrometeorological Prediction Center’s QPF 6-hour accumulation http://nmq.ou.edu

9. CI-FLOW Hydrologic Modeling Tar-Pamlico & Neuse river basins Hydrology Laboratory – Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) by NWS Hybrid conceptual-physical distributed watershed model: – Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model (SAC-SMA) – Kinematic Wave Model for routing – 4-km resolution – 19 parameters; 6 state variables

10. CI-FLOW Hydrologic Model Ensemble 1.“Event-based” parameter set (Isabel) x 16 rainfall multipliers (0.8-1.2, uniformly distributed) 2.“Automatic” parameter set x 16 rainfall multipliers 3.Multiple basin scale parameter set x 16 rainfall multipliers 4.A-priori model (uncalibrated) x 5 rainfall multiplier x 16 channel routing perturbations = 80 Total Number of Members = 16x3 + 80 = 128 Runs every 6 hours with rainfall forcing from NMQ/Q2 observations for past & HPC QPFs for future times

11. CI-FLOW Storm Surge Model ADvanced CIRCulation + Simulating WAves Nearshore Asymmetric Vortex Wind Model – Uses official track, forward speed, radius to maximum winds, central pressure & other information from NHC advisories 2-D ADCIRC – Tides & tidal potential – River input provided by HL-RDHM at 4 hand-off points – Wind waves – Wetting/drying of elements SWAN: Spectral wave model – Waves in all 360 degrees – Wave action balance equation with sources/sinks

12. CI-FLOW Storm Surge Model ADvanced CIRCulation + Simulating WAves Nearshore Unstructured finite element grid High resolution for the Tar & Neuse Rivers, Outer Banks, & Pamlico Sound (down to 30 – 60 m) Dynamic coupling between ADCIRC & SWAN – Predictions of total water level, maximum inundation, wave height, wave period, & tides

13. Distribution of Information NSSL Password-protected Website – mimics NWS AHPS

14. Distribution of Information Coastal Environmental Risks Assessment http://nc-cera.renci.org/cgi-cera_nc/cera_nc.cgi

15. Distribution of Information Coastal Environmental Risks Assessment

16. Distribution of Information Google Earth kmz files – available via OPeNDAP

17. Distribution of Information NOAA nowCOAST http://nowcoast.noaa.gov/ciflow/

18. CI-FLOW User Engagement Primary Users Raleigh, NC NWS Weather Forecast Office Newport/Morehead City, NC NWS Weather Forecast Office NWS Southeast River Forecast Center Secondary Users (briefed by NWS forecasters) Local Emergency Managers (communities & universities) State Emergency Management – North Carolina & Virginia – NC Central & Eastern Branches North Carolina Department of Transportation

19. Future CI-FLOW Work Account for rainfall over ADCIRC domain Water quality modeling Expand to other regions: South Carolina, Texas, Louisiana Kodi Nemunaitis-Monroe Kodi.Nemunaitis@noaa.gov http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/ciflow/