1. Unity or Separation A way towards an independent Southern Sudan and beyond…

2. Sudan 1960-2010  Gradual independence – 1956 & 2011 & ???  Special case – double colonialism Arab – Islam + British – Christian  How many “Sudans”?  The debate on Sudanese Identity  Colonial border and policy problems – heavy weight to carry

3. The CPA (Comprehensive Peace Agreement) - 2005  NCP (National Congress Party) & SPLM (Sudan’s People Liberation Movement)  John Garang’s New Sudan - How strong hope turned to mistrust?  Milestones of CPA – failed to make Unity attractive  Degradation of the Agenda: Preparation for Elections and for Referendum

4. Elections – 11-15 April 2010  NCP & SPLM strategic partnership - Omar al- Bashir & Salva Kiir  NCP - running from ICC - desperate search for legitimacy  SPLM – anything but the referendum  International Community - Elections did not meet international standards, BUT the CPA is more important…  Local and international observers - Harassment, arrests, intimidation of voters and observers in the North and in the South

5. Referendum – 9 January 2011  Preparation – too much to do…  Border demarcation – finished till November?  The “three areas” – referendum in Abyei & popular consultation in Nuba & Blue Nile  Voter registration  Resources division – oil and the river Nile  Citizenship & Cross border movement  Agreement on post-referendum arrangements

6. Secession is unstoppable?  Who wants to stop it?  A failed state is about to be born? An argument from colonial times?  The referendum results will be a verdict not only for the past 5, but the past 55 years.

7. Intra-South dynamics  Ethnic diversity – Dinka, Nuer, Equatorian and the others.  Cattle debates, ethnic violences, rebel commanders.  Jonglei rising? – Athor, Yauyau, who is next?  Possibility of the extension of local conflicts.  After secession: 1. Crucial importance of power sharing. 2. Simultan disarmament. 3. Police forces to balance the power of army.

8. A new state in 2011?  Referendum or Unilateral declaration of independence – the responsibility of recognition – No Eritrea-case again!  Secession as an example?  Post-referendum arrangements.  New census to serve as a basis for power share / good governance.  New oil pipes – Lamu?  Diplomacy and Trade – turn to East Africa…

9. Conclusions  International community to give South a chance  SPLM to give democracy a chance  Garang’s dream might not be fulfilled, but Southern Sudan has the chance now to build a state and a nation.

10. Sudan in 2060  Southern Sudan in East Africa?  Fragmentation of the North  Darfur (+ Nubians, Bejas…)  Real Arab-Islamic state for the Riverines?  End of violence?

11. Thank you for your Attention!  Zoltán Illés  Corvinus University Budapest  nganaszan@yahoo.com nganaszan@yahoo.com