1. Future Urbanization and Biodiversity: Identifying locations of potential tension Peter J. Marcotullio and Carson Farmer Hunter College, CUNY

2. Outline Inspiration Methods Preliminary finding Conclusion and next steps

3. Inspiration for the project

4. In 2012, we did a very simple analysis of the geographic distribution of human population over time from 1980 to 2100 and compared this distribution to biodiversity distributions

10. Source: Turner and Hawkins, 2004

13. The second spike in population is located between 5° South and 15° North The terrestrial area located between 5° South and 15° North includes 1,311 of the 5,286 terrestrial mammalian species ranges identified by the IUCN or almost a quarter of all terrestrial mammals species This area also intersects 13 of the 34 hotspots identified in 2011

15. Moreover, most future population will be added to the world’s cities, which provides special conservation challenges and opportunities This was enough to peak our interests The question was how to do this analysis more rigorously We decided to start with a simple model and then develop the project from there…

16. Methods Components of urbanization – Population size GRUMP 2000 spatial population distribution UN population for 1692 large cities to 2030 (2014) UN population for urban residents to 2050 (2014) – Urban area GRUMP 2000 spatial population extents (2014)

17. Methods Adding population – Large cities: Add/subtract population using UN population figures for specific cities for 2000 – 2030 (large cities) – Small cities: Add/subtract population using UN population from 2000-2030 minus that from large cities, randomly – All cities: Add/subtract population using UN population figures randomly 2030 – 2050 – After 2050…?

18. Methods Biodiversity – Geodatabases of global ranges for Taxa Mammals (5,513) (IUCN Red List, Version 2014.1) Birds (> 9,000) (BirdLife International and NatureServe (2012) ) Amphibians (6,410) (IUCN Red List, Version 2014.1) Reptiles (4,296) (IUCN Red List, Version 2014.1) – Dissolve ranges for individual species – Rasterize results to a “reasonable” resolution – Add up the species in cells For this presentation we provide on a sample demonstrating the possibilities

19. Methods Population and biodiversity – Identify the most rapidly growing urban areas – Identify the areas of highest biodiversity – Correlate these as potential “tension” areas

20. Preliminary findings

21. Show partial results for one country: Democratic Republic of Congo (ISO-code: COD) Projection population distribution to 2050 Use a sample of biodiversity (partial amphibian distribution) Overlay sample of biodiversity with 2050 patterns

22. Democratic Republic of Congo

23. Projected population growth: Democratic Republic of Congo 2010 2050

30. Conclusions Summary – We are developing a process by which we project urbanization to 2050 and identify locations of human- biodiversity tension. We have started with a simple model Next steps – Refine the technique and use it on a global geography for all countries to 2050 and possibly 2100 In the future – We hope that from this “simple” process we can further use object-oriented methods to develop more complicated models of urbanization (including land use change, economic components, etc.) and a larger set of biodiversity data