1. 100 years of living science Andy Purvis Ecology & Evolution section Division of Biology a.purvis@imperial.ac.uk Phylogeny and biodiversity in a changing world 1 101

2. Entangled banks and the Tree of Life

3. DNA barcoding

4. Lahaye et al. 2008 PNAS 105: 2023-2028

5. Null hypothesis: single species Tree should match a single coalescent process Gives expectation for waiting times Statistical approach to delimiting species Pons et al. 2006 Systematic Biology 55: 595-609

6. Statistical approach to delimiting species Alternate hypothesis: genetic clusters separated by longer branches Coalescent within species, Yule process among species Optimise switch point and tune parameters Test for significance Between-species branchingWithin Pons et al. 2006 Systematic Biology 55: 595-609

7. Thorough sampling from Australian salt lakes 468 individuals 48 (46 to 52) genetic clusters Coherent geographic ranges Coherent morphology Species delimitation: Australian tiger beetles Pons et al. 2006 Systematic Biology 55: 595-609

8. Bird phylogenies show density-dependence Phylloscopus and Seicercus My before present Lineage no. (log scale) Phillimore & Price 2008 PLoS Biology 6: 483-489

9. A species-level phylogeny of mammals Bininda-Emonds et al. 2007 Nature 446: 507-512

10. All mammals Placentals Marsupials K-T boundary P E O M P Bininda-Emonds et al. 2007 Nature 446: 507-512 No diversification in response to K-T event

11. Did beetles get big & strong by eating their greens? The most comprehensive phylogeny of beetles (1900 tips, ~ 80% of families represented) Hunt et al. 2007 Science 318: 1913-1916

12. K-T Hunt et al. 2007 Science 318: 1913-1916 Beetles have not diversified very rapidly They are older than angiosperms Hundreds of lineages made it through K-T And they have kept on diversifying Did beetles get big & strong by eating their greens?

13. Global pattern of species-richness Mammalian species per 100km x 100km grid cell Lat. gradient Birds: Orme et al. 2005 Nature 436: 1016-1019 Mammals & Amphibians: Grenyer et al. 2006 Nature 444: 93-96

14. ‘Old’ vs ‘young’ diversity Red = old diversity; blue = young diversity ‘Hotspots’ of history aren’t always the hotspots of richness Mammals: Davies et al. in press PNAS Plants: Forest, Grenyer et al. 2007 Nature 445: 757-760

15. Disparity: variance in log(body mass) Hotspots of character diversity are not always in same place either Mammals: Davies et al. in press PNAS Plants: Forest, Grenyer et al. 2007 Nature 445: 757-760

16. Measuring extinction risk - the IUCN Red List EW EX!!! CR EN VU LR cd LR nt LR lc DD? Mace & Lande 1991 Cons. Biol.

17. Extinction risk is not random: mammals Extinction risk shows both phylogenetic and geographic pattern - it is not random Patterns differ among major groups too mean

18. Small and large mammals have different rules PredictorSmall (<3kg)Large (>3kg) Geog. range size-14.03***-3.90*** Latitude5.49*** Human density-2.10* Human density 2 3.48*** Ext. threat index3.71***2.99** Neonate size2.09* Litters/year-2.04* Pop. density-2.27** Cardillo et al. 2005 Science 309: 1239-1241

19. Model biotic decline as function of human actions Use spatial variation in drivers in lieu of a time series Drivers: % urban or cropland Human population density Plot marginal effect of drivers of threat blue=low, purple=hot controls for biology differences Davies et al. in press PNAS Logit(Land conversion) Log(Human density)

20. The goal - predictions under relevant scenarios Adapting Mosaic Order from Strength Davies et al. in press PNAS

21. de Mazancourt et al. 2008 Ecol. Letts 11: 380-388 Phenotypic trait value Number of generationsNumber of generationsNumber of generations Number of generations a – species #11 b – species #11 a – species #2 b – species #2c Diversity, global change, and evolutionary rates

22. GenesIndividualsPopulationsSpeciesInteractions i ii iii iv v vi 1212312123 ABCDEFABCDEF GCGC GTAC CTAG A B C D E F - + + + + + + - + + + + + - + - Local populations Global biodiversity Biological networks GenBank TangledBank?

23. Interactomics

24. Integrated biodiversity analysis

25. Entangled banks and the Tree of Life