1. Levels of Analysis And Foreign Policy
Chapter 3
Levels of Analysis
And
Foreign Policy

2. Individual-Level Analysis
Begins with view that the root it is people who make policy
Involves understanding the human-decision marking process (psychology)
Groupthink, Individual decisions, etc.
Political Science and Psychology and Sociology

3. The Human Condition How do humans affect policy?
Cognitive decision making: making decisions within the constraints of bounded rationality, first level of individual-level analysis
External boundaries (missing data, incorrect data) may affect decisions
Internal boundaries (limited physical and mental capabilities) also play a role

4. Decision Making Seek Cognitive Consistency
Wishful Thinking—We will succeed (regardless of improbability)
Heuristic Devices – a range of psychological strategies that allow people to simplify complex decisions. Examples: stereotypes, analolgies

5. Decision Making Emotional Factors Leaders are human too
Biological Factors
Ethology/Animal Instincts
Socialization
Intellect

6. Decision Making Gender
Social construct developed by socialization process
Gender opinion gap

7. Organizational Behavior
Second approach to individual-level analysis
People act differently depending on different settings
Roles based on self-expectations and external expectations
Groupthink

8. Leaders and Idiosyncratic Analysis
Third approach to individual
Idiosyncratic Analysis:– level analysis; study of humans as individuals and how each leader’s personal (idiosyncratic) characteristics help shape his or her decisions
How do personal traits affect decisions?

9. Leaders Personality Orientations toward self and others
Active-Passive and Positive- Negative Scale (Active-Negative worst—example, Nixon)
2. Physical and Mental Health
3. Personality and Ambition
4. Political History
5. Personal Experience

10. Rational & Irrational Factors
Decisions are usually a mix of rational and irrational factors
Poliheuristic Theory: Considers decision making to be a two stage process
During 1st stage, leaders use shortcuts to eliminate policy options, usually for irrational personal reasons
2nd stage a more analytic process

11. State-Level Analysis
Emphasizes the characteristics of states and how they make foreign policy choices and implement them
Government Structure
Interest Groups
Leaders
Political Forces

12. Types of Governments
Type of government affects policy decision (authoritarian, democratic, etc)
Crisis vs. Noncrisis situation (rally cry)

13. Type of Policy Type of policy can vary depending on the issue area
Intermestic Policy: Foreign policy that has an immediate and direct domestic impact
Pure foreign policy: issues that have little to no obvious impact on citizens

14. Political Culture
Concept that refers to a society’s general, long-held, and fundamental practices and attitudes. These are based on a country’s historical experiences and on the values (norms) of its citizens. These attitudes are often an important part of how policy is made.

15. Who makes Foreign Policy?
Political executives
Bureaucracies
Legislative bodies
Political Opponents
Interest Groups
The Citizens

16. System-Level Analysis
All systems have identifiable characteristics
How Authority is Organized
Scope and Level of Interaction among actors in the system

17. Organization of Authority
Vertical Authority Structure: Subordinate unites are substantially regulated by higher levels of authority
Horizontal Authority Structure: Few , if any, higher authorities in such systems; powers fragmented
World stage is mostly horizontal

18. Organization of Authority
State-centric system: anarchic, no overarching authority
Anarchic nature greatly influences policy
Range, frequency and intensity of interactions between nations affect decisions

19. Power Relationships Reality of the system Power Poles Unipolar system
Power and Situation

20. Economic Realities Shape policy Natural Resource Production
Consumption pattersn

21. Norms
Nuking not acceptable
Diversity = differences