1. Normative-narrative scenarios as a tool to support strategic R&D processes: benefits and limits Hannah Kosow, Dr. Robert Gaßner IZT – Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making 16th- 17th October 2008

2. Normative-narrative scenarios in strategic R&D processes Questions Do normative-narrative scenarios present an adequate tool to support strategic R&D processes? What are benefits and limits of the tool and which factors of success are crucial? 2

3. Normative-narrative scenarios in strategic R&D processes Structure Normative-narrative scenarios Expected benefits / goals of normative narrative scenario-work in strategic R&D processes Methods Scenario-processes Internal evaluation Preliminary results Conclusions 3

4. Normative-narrative scenarios in strategic R&D processes Normative-narrative scenarios Characteristics Normative scenarios (vs. analytical what-if-scenarios) Narrative scenarios (vs. e.g. quantitative scenarios) Participatory process 4

5. Normative-narrative scenarios in strategic R&D processes Normative-narrative scenarios Example (excerpt from a scenario about the future of health ) [Han a Chinese au pair boy has just arrived in Germany and is shown around the house by his guest father, Sascha.] Spontaneous development of clear positions and attitudes (either positive or negative) towards the issues of the scenario. 5

6. Normative-narrative scenarios in strategic R&D processes Expected support for strategic R&D processes To specify goals of R&D To consider desirability and visions of R&D (strengthening the normative side) To focus R&D on needs and demands for technology and on the user perspective To include a variety of stakeholders: interdisciplinary and interdepartmental To generate additional orientation in fields of R&D To provide ideas and input for R&D programmes and strategies 6

7. Normative-narrative scenarios in strategic R&D processes Methods I Normative-narrative scenario processes: Participants: stakeholders of the High-Tech Strategy Issues: different issues of the High-Tech Strategy Three types of scenario-processes combination of both types to specify R&D goals and R&D options of action type 2 transfer R&D options of action type 1 classical R&D goals scenario 7 scenario- building workshop scenario- analysing workshop

8. Normative-narrative scenarios in strategic R&D processes Methods II Evaluation Focus: usefulness and impact (as perceived by the stakeholders / observable in stakeholders work) Approach: explorative and qualitative Two data sources: - immediate feedback at the end of each workshop (all participants) - semi-structured qualitative interviews after the workshop (covering all types of workshops, all issues and the range of participants) 8

9. Normative-narrative scenarios in strategic R&D processes Preliminary results (selection) I Cognitive and normative impact on the individual level - no business as usual R&D issues under a new perspective: Pre-condition: openness of participants to working formats perceived as unusual. 9 - awareness for the lifeworld (Lebenswelt); - needs for technologies and societal demands; - the user perspective.

10. Normative-narrative scenarios in strategic R&D processes Preliminary results (selection) II Communicative impact among heterogeneous stakeholders Cooperative and constructive work of heterogeneous stakeholders from R&D processes on an equal footing. 10

11. Normative-narrative scenarios in strategic R&D processes Preliminary results (selection) III Impacts on the stakeholders work in R&D processes The results are communicated and spread into the R&D stakeholders home- organisations. Networking effect: low threshold contacts between stakeholders from different organisations and institutions. 11

12. Normative-narrative scenarios in strategic R&D processes Preliminary results (selection) IV Direct impacts on R&D processes vary with the type of scenario process applied: - scenario-analysing processes (type 2) seem to provide more observable impact than scenario-building processes (type 1); - scenario processes covering both formats seem to generate most impact. Different types of scenario processes have different types of impact on R&D processes. 12

13. Normative-narrative scenarios in strategic R&D processes Conclusions Main characteristic and main benefit of normative-narrative scenario processes: their integration of expert knowledge and personal vision. Factor of success: to enable participants to integrate their expert knowledge and their perspective as ordinary citizens. Scenario-transfer to more concrete strategic R&D options seem to match the R&D stakeholders demands and needs best. … if there is a suitable scenario available. 13

14. Normative-narrative scenarios in strategic R&D processes Thank you! Contact: Hannah Kosow h.kosow@izt.de IZT- Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment Schopenhauerstr. 26 14129 Berlin, Germany 14