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Ed Dammers FLIS Workshop Copenhagen, 29 April 2013 1 Using scenarios.

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Presentation on theme: "Ed Dammers FLIS Workshop Copenhagen, 29 April 2013 1 Using scenarios."— Presentation transcript:

1 Ed Dammers FLIS Workshop Copenhagen, 29 April 2013 1 Using scenarios

2 Dilemma He who doesnt know how to care for the future will be dependent on future uncertainties (Seneca) Those who pretend to predict the future are lying even if they occasionally speak the truth (Arabic saying)

3 Methods PredictionScenarios Speculations

4 Prediction Gegevens: + Theorieën: +

5 Scenarios Gegevens: - Theorieën: + Production space Aesthetic space

6 Speculations Gegevens: - Theorieën: -

7 Scenario characteristics Stories about the future Regarding a strategic policy-issue For the long-term: 10 to 40 years In words, images and numbers In plural: alternative directions Combining imagination with realism

8 17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties 8 Scenario-cycle

9 9 Importance of scenarios Strategic policymaking: generates high impacts is confronted with high complexity and uncertainty runs the risk of suboptimal outcomes or policy-fiascos Futures studies may be helpful to: better deal with complexity and uncertainty improve strategic policymaking and its outcomes

10 10 Importance of scenarios

11 11 Usability of scenarios Cognition trends, mutual relations and impacts wild cards, conditions and impacts alternative policies and impacts Communication input for strategic discussions stimulate open discussions structuring discussions Commitment provide support for current policy inspire to choose alternative policy consider other values and views

12 12 Difficulty of using them World of futurists Scientific rationality Exploring uncertainty Long term orientation Integrated perspective Focussed on one study World of policymakers Political rationality Searching for certainty Short term orientation Sector perspective Confronted with many studies, advices etc.

13 13 Difficulty of using them

14 14 Factors influencing their use Qualities Imaginative Plausible Comparable Informative Understandable

15 15 Factors influencing their use Communication Multi target groups: public organisations, NGOs, business, citizen groups Multi languages: stories, images, figures Multi media: reports, dvds, internet, film Multi techniques: conferences, workshops, presentations, serious games

16 16 Factors influencing their use

17 17 Factors influencing their use Institutionalisation Position: internal or external Competition: one or more institutes Status : legalized, commissioned, independent Resources: people, expertise, money Contacts: (in)formal, bilateral, networks

18 18 Factors influencing their use Contextual factors Policy issue: physical, social Policy system: pluralistic, corporatist Level of conflict: medium, high External factors: economic tide, political atmosphere

19 19 Factors influencing their use

20 20 Success factors High quality of futures studies Enough recourses for producers and users Active involvement of target groups Intensive and long lasting communication Adequately using policy momentum Various futures studies providing comparable messages

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