1. Systemic Foresight Methodology
The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011
Systemic Foresight Methodology
Dr. Ozcan Saritas
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
The University of Manchester

2. Systemic Foresight Methodology
New global context
The increasing importance of innovation (both technological and organisational) and the development of service economies
Increased financial, trade and investment flows
Rapid and accelerating technological progress; ICTs, biotechnology, fuel cells, nanotechnologies
Global value chains and new international regulations and standards on trade, quality, labor, environment, intellectual property rights
Other developments including changes in demographic structures and in cultural practices, and environmental affairs, advancements in S&T
Recognition of the close relationship between S&T and Society

3. Trends Drivers of change
Systemic Foresight Methodology
Increasing push for greater efficiency and decarbonisation of the energy system because of the environmental and energy security concerns
Trends
Environmental policies change behaviours and shift societal actions more toward integral or internalized measures – such as recycling requirements
Drivers of change

4. Key requirements for Foresight
Systemic Foresight Methodology
Key requirements for Foresight
Understanding
Real-life systems and natural settings with a multi-contextual focus
Increasing interrelationships and interdependencies and thus more complex and uncertain situations
Anticipation
Understanding, appreciating and modelling present & anticipated long-term developments
Intelligence gathering to explore novel ideas and avoid shocks
Inclusivity
Interactive and participative ways of debate and analysis
Continuous interaction of stakeholders on equal terms
Establishment of new social networks
Policy and action orientation
Elaboration of strategic visions based on a shared sense of commitment
Implications for present-day decisions and actions
Methodological support
Using quantitative and qualitative methods and building methodologies by combining them to fit for purpose
Integration of best practices, methods and tools

5. Phases of the Systemic Foresight Methodology
Intelligence
Creates shared understanding and mutual appreciation of issues at hand
Imagination
The input from scanning is synthesised into conceptual models of the situations involved in the real world
Integration
Analyses the alternative models of the future and ‘prioritises’ them, through intensive negotiations among system actors and stakeholders, to create an agreed model of the future
Interpretation
Translates future visions into long-, medium-, and short-term actions for a successful change programme
Intervention
Creates plans to inform present day decisions for immediate change to provide structural and behavioural transformations
Intelligence
Imagination
Integration
Interpretation
Intervention
Interaction

6. Intelligence Scanning for Intelligence gathering
Systemic Foresight Methodology
Intelligence
Scanning
Scanning for Intelligence gathering
“The systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends” (DEFRA, 2002)
Selecting the main areas for intervention, the boundaries of the Foresight are drawn and the ‘content’ of Foresight is built with scanning
Scanning provides the basic input to the entire activity and involves analysis of such as Trends, Drivers of Change, Surprises/Shocks, Discontinuities
Bibliometrics
/ Data Mining
Literature
Review
Interviews
Trends/Drivers
Indicators
System
Analysis
Panels
Workshops

7. Key questions for Intelligence gathering
Systemic Foresight Methodology
Key questions for Intelligence gathering
What kind of developments will occur?
Which ones of them could be beneficial and which ones harmful?
How soon may these developments occur?
What might be the first signs that these developments are happening?
Where and how might the leading indications of impending change be seen?
Who is in a position anywhere to observe these indications?
What is worth to minimise the extent of surprise introduced by these indications?
Who needs to know about these impending changes?

8. Context, content & process of Foresight
Systemic Foresight Methodology
Context, content & process of Foresight
Social system
Technological system
Economic system
Ecological system
Political system
Values

9. Systemic Foresight Methodology

10. Urban Poverty – issues (<1999)

11. Urban Poverty – issues (2000-09)

12. Urban Poverty – issues (2010-19)

13. Urban Poverty - centrality measures based on Freeman’s degree of centrality
<1999
2030 <  1
Poverty (170)
Poverty (105)
Urban (406)
Population (36)
Rural (18)  2
Urbanisation (156)
Slums (92)
Poverty (394)
Sanitation (36)
Poverty (18)  3
Food (131)
Sanitation (83)
Population (379)
Water (25)
Migration (18)  4
Rural (121)
Rural (76)
Growth (350)
Rural (25)
Urbanisation (18)  5
Population (121)
Food (73)
Slums (340)
Urban (25)
Malnutrition (11)  6
Water (115)
Population (69)
Disaster (320)
Urbanisation (21)
Food (11)  7
Migration (110)
Migration (69)
Public transport (314)
Poverty (13)
Sanitation (11)  8
Sanitation (97)
Urbanisation (67)
Transport (314)
Housing (13)
Health (11)  9
Urban (94)
Urban (66)
Policy (281)
Transport (13)
Land (11)
 10
Education (88)
Health (64)
Cities (281)
Land (13)
Water (11)
 11
Agreements (75)
Defecation (62)
Road (268)
Health (13)
Transport (11)
 12
Health (70)
Water (62)
Lifestyle (262)
Migration (13)
Housing (11)
 13
Sustainability (70)
Toilets (62)
Landslide (238)
Business (8)
Handicrafts (7)
 14
Environment (70)
Economy (58)
Catastrophe (238)
Economy (8)
Environment (7)
 15
Slums (67)
Malnutrition (53)
Congestion (238)
Agriculture (8)
Agriculture (7)

14. Imagination “Imagination is more than knowledge” – A. Einstein
Systemic Foresight Methodology
Imagination
Gaming
Scenario
Planning
“Imagination is more than knowledge” – A. Einstein
Generation of new ideas or concepts, or new associations between existing ideas or concepts
Production of models to promote understanding of systems and situations within the limits of uncertainties
Modelling formalises thought experiments leads to the further development of Foresight process and presentation of the outcome
Wild Card
Weak Signals
Network
Analysis
Agent Based
Modelling
Modelling
/ Simulation
Panels
Workshops

15. Jean-Marc Côté's Visions of the Year 2000 (1899)
Systemic Foresight Methodology
Jean-Marc Côté's Visions of the Year 2000 (1899)

16. What of the horse a hundred years hence?
Systemic Foresight Methodology
What of the horse a hundred years hence?
People of the year 2000, amazed at the sight of a horse. (French postcard circa 1910)

17. Understanding the time spans of change
Systemic Foresight Methodology
Understanding the time spans of change
1-year Present
The time it takes planet earth to circle the sun once
Cycle of seasons
Unit of time measurement for human lives
Farming and crop rotation
10-year Present
Sizeable chunk of a human lifetime
Long enough to provide insight into dynamic processes
Ideal for noting environmental and ecological factors
A reasonable horizon for testing new products and services
The time it takes to plan and build major infrastructure items
20-year Present
Cycle of generations for human beings: (Veterans, ); (Baby Boomers, ); (Generation Xs ( );
The Nexters ( ))
Long enough to observe the economics and social impact of strategic R&D activities, e.g. the identification of CFCs
scientifically and the sign of the international contract to take precautionary measures ( )
50-year Present
Incorporates some major concerns of a technologically advanced culture
Culturally significant period to understand trends and change processes
Enough to judge the impacts and implications of existing and new technologies
100-year Present
Boundary of a single lifetime
Long cycles can be distinguished
The rise and fall of regions, industries and ecosystems
Theories and history and futures begin to flourish
200-year Present
Ideal timeframe for cultures in transition
A time with which generations are linked
Enough to develop intergenerational biography and dialogue
The rise and fall of cultures, empires and entire ecosystems
Macro view of history; the panorama of the centuries

18. From Networks to Evolutionary Scenarios The history of the futureD T T D T Di We Wi Wi Wi We Di D We Di
< 1999

19. Systemic Foresight Methodology
Integration
SWOT
Analysis
Concerned with the systemic analysis of future alternatives and building a vision
The analysis and selection of a desired system is multifaceted as there is a variety of worldviews and expectations to be negotiated.
For a system to be viable in the long term, the claims of different stakeholders must be considered adequately, and attention must be given to ethical and aesthetic aspects for the pursuit of ideals such as beauty, truth, good and plenty (Ackoff, 1981).
The end product of this phase is an agreed model of the future
Multi Criteria
Analysis
Cross Impact
Analysis
Prioritisation
/ Delphi
Scoring
Voting/Rating
Benefit/Cost
/Risk Analysis
Panels
Workshops

20. Systemic Foresight Methodology
Interpretation
Backcasting
Translates visions into strategies for a successful change programme.
Conditions for the successful transformation strategies:
Assessment (e.g. processing information; developing an understanding of the continuously changing context; and becoming an open learning system)
Leadership (e.g. having a context-sensitive leadership; creating capabilities for change; and linking actions with resources)
Linking strategic and operational change (e.g. supplying visions, values and directions)
Management of human resources (e.g. demonstrating the need for change in people and behaviours)
Coherence (e.g. adaptive response to environment; and maintaining competitive advantage)
Road
Mapping
Relevance
Trees
Logic Charts
Linear
Programming
Strategic
Planning
Panels
Workshops

21. Systemic Foresight Methodology
Intervention
Priority Lists
Critical/Key
Technologies
Any Foresight exercise has to inform policies and actions.
Foresight suggests actions concerning immediate change actions to implement structural and behavioural transformations.
Actions for change are determined by considering the following capabilities of the system under investigation:
Adapting
Influencing and shaping its context
Finding a new milieu or modelling itself virtuously in its context
Adding value to the viability and development of wider wholes in which it is embedded
R&D
Planning
Action
Planning
Operational
Planning
Impact
Assessment
Panels
Workshops

22. Systemic Foresight Methodology
Interaction
Shift from ‘government’ to ‘governance’ and thus a new ‘regulatory’ system
Inclusiveness and equity through freedom of association and expression, and an organised civil society with full protection of human rights
Democratic society influencing, restraining or blocking policy design and implementation
Contributions from society, firms, institutions, and associations to enhance public policy within a new normative and legal framework
Effectiveness and efficiency in meeting society’s expectations and sustainable use of resources
The quest for new forms of governance is structured around three pillars: Governance, Socio-cultural evolution & Corporate industrial activity
Interaction

23. What is feasible? What is possible? Technology & Economics Science &
Systemic Foresight Methodology
What is feasible?
What is possible?
Technology
& Economics
Science &
Ecology
Systemic Foresight
What is desirable?
Socioeconomics
Politics & Values

24. Systemic Foresight Methodology
Intelligence
Imagination
Integration
Interpretation
Intervention
Scanning
Gaming
SWOT
Analysis
Backcasting
Priority Lists
Bibliometrics
/ Data Mining
Scenario
Planning
Multi Criteria
Analysis
Road
Mapping
Critical/Key
Technologies
Literature
Review
Wild Card
Weak Signals
Cross Impact
Analysis
Relevance
Trees
R&D
Planning
Interviews
Network
Analysis
Prioritisation
/ Delphi
Logic Charts
Action
Planning
Interaction
Trends/Drivers
Indicators
Agent Based
Modelling
Scoring
Voting/Rating
Linear
Programming
Operational
Planning
System
Analysis
Modelling
/ Simulation
Benefit/Cost
/Risk Analysis
Strategic
Planning
Impact
Assessment
Panels
Workshops
Panels
Workshops
Panels
Workshops
Panels
Workshops
Panels
Workshops

25. A Case: Methodology for a Regional Foresight exercise
Systemic Foresight Methodology
A Case: Methodology for a Regional Foresight exercise
Objectives of the Regional Foresight exercise:
Policies and strategies for the Renewable Energies sector (e.g. improve competitiveness of companies, scientific organizations and intermediaries; establish the capital region as relevant and attractive location; improve services; and exploit a large market in the region and beyond)
Identification of key technologies (e.g. identify key technologies for the next years; promote technology learning; strengthen technology transfer; utilize existing technologies; and involve in the development, shaping and expert technologies)
Structural and organizational improvement of the sector (e.g. improve collaboration among actors; improve supplier / value chains; initiate new partnerships and investments; establish state-wide SME network; and establish international activities)

26. Policy path Systemic Foresight Methodology
Scanning: For the analysis of STEEPV systems to understand what type of energies will be needed and what kind of demand will come out
Key Indicators / Forecasting: For the analysis of sectoral forecasts and long term projections
Mega trend analysis: To understand the broad policy tendencies at the Global/European/National levels
Synthesis of previous work: Large amount of the work on energy futures exists including plenty of scenario work (reviewing those scenarios would be useful to suggest a set of “synthesis scenarios”)
Scenarios: To discover alternative futures on policy developments
SWOT analysis of the regional capabilities against the visionary scenario
Roadmapping: Illustrating the priority areas, the actions to be taken in long, medium and short terms and the distribution of initiatives among the actors in the sector
Policy Recommendations: Policy actions to be taken in the short term
Policy path

27. Technological path Systemic Foresight Methodology
Scanning: For the analysis of STEEPV systems and discuss their implications on technologies
Bibliometrics/Literature Review: For the review the technologies to generate energy and discuss in panels which are relevant and promising for the region
Key Indicators/Forecasts: Analysis of sectoral forecasts and long term projections on technologies
Synthesis: For the review and synthesis of the previous Foresight work
Scenarios with wide participation (including citizens) identify the ‘demands of society’ from the technology
Delphi: Represents the ‘supply’ side – whether the demands in the scenarios are possible and feasible or not. Helps to define time of realisation for selected technologies and technology areas. Also helps to identify priority technologies
Roadmaps: For the development of Technology Roadmaps for prioritised technologies at different levels such as Technology – Product / Capability / Development / Research
Produce a list of critical technologies
Suggest R&D projects and plan R&D activities and resources
Technological path

28. Structural path Systemic Foresight Methodology
System Analysis: Analysis of the value chain helps to come to a better understanding of how the sector works and what the actors / stakeholders are
Clustering by stakeholder mapping helps to map the actors in the sector and to indicate ‘who is doing what’
Mega trend analysis: Sectoral megatrends will give clues on changing roles in the sectors and inclusion of new actors / stakeholders in the process in the future
Scenarios: Various scenarios around Input-Output relationships illustrate the future organisation of the sector
SWOT analysis of the existing structures against the structures suggested in the visionary / most desirable scenario
Delphi: To identify types of collaborations needed among stakeholders in order to establish new links in the system
Strategic plans: for the restructuring of the sector in the medium term
Action planning: To suggest immediate actions to change / improve structures and organisations and to introduce new rules and regulations
Structural path

29. METHODS
Policy Path
Tech Path
Structural Path
Scanning 
Bibliometrics
Literature Review
Key Indicators
Stakeholder Mapping
System Analysis
Megatrend Analysis
Scenarios
Weak Signals
SWOT Analysis 
Delphi Survey
Roadmapping
Relevance Trees
Strategic Planning
Critical / Key Techs
R&D Planning
Policy Recommendations
Action Planning

30. Systemic Foresight Methodology
Conclusions
Foresight practice has moved from being ‘systematic’ to ‘systemic’
Systemic Foresight Methodology (SFM) concerns ‘situations’, which is characterised by sets of events that may be that may be coincident or serial or both that create a situation not a problem
Provides greater awareness and understanding and appreciation of complex Social, Technological, Economic, Ecological, Political and Value (STEEPV) systems
SFM involves a ‘soft process of inquiry’ , which is characterised by subjective opinion
SFM meets expectations for inclusivity, transparency and inclusivity

31. Systemic Foresight Intelligence Imagination Integration Intervention
Interpretation
Intervention
Systemic Foresight Methodology