1. 1 Indralal De Silva Senior Professor of Demography (Chair) Department of Demography University of Colombo & Senior Research Fellow NCAS Sri Lanka isilva84@mail.cmb.ac.lk Web: Indralal.com Challenges of Demographic Change: Dividend and Development Prospects of Sri Lanka

2. 2 Sections to be discussed  Demographic transition  Past, present & future size of the population  Changes in the age & sex structure  Demographic dividend (bonus)  Labour force  Emerging population issues  Conclusions

3. 3 Demographic Transition Mortality (deaths) of Sri Lanka declined since 1920s Fertility (births) of Sri Lanka declined since early 1960s. However, since year 2000 it shows an increase Since 1970s, emigration (out bound) of Sri Lankans has accelerated – net loser Ageing is a by product of these trends

4. 4 YearMaleFemale Difference (F – M) 1920 -192232.730.7-2.0 1945 -194746.844.7-2.1 195358.857.5-1.3 1962 -196463.363.7+0.4 1970 -197264.066.9+2.9 1980 -198267.772.1+4.4 2000-200268.176.6+8.5 2011 (projected) 68.877.6+8.8 Life Expectancy at Birth (in years) AgeMaleFemale At age 60 17.221.3 Life expectancy at age 60 (in years), 2000-2002

5. 5 Fertility Transition Year Total Fertility Rate –TFR (No. of live births per woman) 19535.32 19635.33 19714.16 19813.45 1995-20001.96 2003-2006(1.8) 2.30 Total fertility rate - TFR

6. International Migration 6 Large no. has migrated - Semi or permanent manner Departures for foreign employment 2009 247,126 2010 266,445 2011 263,960 2012 271,000 PeriodArrivalsDeparturesNet gain/Lost 2000 - 20045,574,3875,634,152 -59,765 2005 - 20086,004,2076,144,351-140,144 2009 - 20128,679,3808,828,603-149,223 Labour shortages - Importation of foreign workers - Remittances

7. 7 Departures for Foreign Employment Female

8. 8 Population Growth 1871 2.4 million 19254.8 million 19609.6 million 200319.2 million After 54 years After 35 years After 43 years

9. 9 Change of Population, Sri Lanka Year Population size (in millions) Median age (in years) 197112.725.0 198114.826.7 200118.727.9 2011 Census 2012 =20.3 20.531.6 202121.535.8 203121.939.6 204121.742.4 At present the rate of population growth is only 0.7% (2001-2012). The total population will never get doubled in the future. Is this true with the elderly population?

10. 10 Population Growth and Size

11. 11 Sex Ratio (Number of males per 100 females) Sex ratio of the total population reported in 2012 census is 94. For every 100 females there was only 94 men. Sex ratio of the elderly in 2011 would have been around 90. Year Sex Ratio (Total Population) Sex Ratio (Population 60+) 1971 106.1121.8 1981 104.0112.9 2001 97.9 96.7 2011 Census 2012 =94.3 97.5 90.8

13. 13 Change of the Age Structure Year Age group (%) 60+ 60+15-59<15 1971 6.354.739.0 1981 6.658.235.2 2001 9.264.526.3 2012 12.2 (12.5) 62.0 25.8 (22.8) 201614.564.221.3 202116.863.819.4 203120.763.216.1 204124.860.015.2 The projected proportion of elderly for 2012 is 12.5%, however the census figure is 12.2%. The proportion of children is 25.8% in the census while projected value is 22.8%.

14. Population Age 60 and Over (in millions) 14 9.2 % 12.2 % 16.7% 20.7% 24.8% 7.9 %

15. 15 Distribution of Elderly by Age 1971 to 2041 Year Percentage Number(‘000)60+ 60-7475+ 197180.519.5 807 198178.921.1 986 199178.821.21,393 200176.323.71,916 201275.924.12,468 202175.824.23,997 203170.129.95,103 204167.232.86,305 Old-old category is increasing rapidly

16. Age Dependency Ratios 1996 199Year 16 Year Age Groups Child (0-14)/(15-59) Elderly (60+)/(15-59) Total (0-14)+(60+)/(15-59) 1971 71.311.582.8 1981 60.511.371.8 2001 40.714.355.1 2012 41.619.761.3 2021* 30.426.256.6 2031* 25.532.858.3 2041* 25.341.466.7 2051* 26.551.277.7 2061* 26.557.684.1 2071* 28.464.092.3

17. 17 Population ageing will bring a slowdown of labour force How to address this issue and to achieve productive ageing: - Policies could be aimed at increasing participation of older workers - Retirement age could be made more flexible (60 62, 65 - Identification of obstacles for employment of older workers - Improve the skills of older workers - Improve the choices available to older workers - Improving health status of older workers; key reason for withdrawal from the L.M is the ill health - NCDs

18. 18 Demographic dividend - bonus (window of opportunity) Each country would under go a period comprising “demographic bonus” during the age structure transition The demographic bonus would have a positive impact on economic growth Newly industrialized countries such as Republic of Korea, Singapore, Taiwan etc. have utilized the demographic bonus effectively During demographic bonus, dependency will be at minimum level; highest proportion of population will be in working ages (15-59 or 15-64)

19. Demographic dividend (bonus) (Lowest level of dependency exists) 19 Environment is conducive for economic takeoff ( 1991-2017) It provides sustainable benefits to all segments of the population

20. 20 Bonus alone not sufficient for take-off : Lessons from East Asian tigers Political stability Savings & investment Productivity Knowledge Economy – skills gap Increasing the mandatory retirement age till 65 years & productive ageing would stretch the Demographic Bonus further (say up to 2030)

21. Growth of Labour Force by Sex (000’) YearMaleFemaleTotal 2010560928968505 1990437425946968 Growth1235 3021537 Ave. annual growth rate (%) 1.240.551.00 Rate of growth of the female L.F. was significantly lower than the males – why?

22. 22 Emerging Population Issues Increase of fertility Ageing & disability Migration - labour Family transition - FHHH Social protection

23. 23 Conclusions Fertility, gender gap in life expectancy & migration all indicate upward trend Population will increase & then stabilize Size & age-sex structure changing – Fe. Proportion & number of elderly will increase

24. 24 Demographic environment is conducive for economic take-off. Presently lowest level of dependency prevails. Rapid ageing could fade away this favorable environment Demographic environment is conducive for economic take-off. Presently lowest level of dependency prevails. Rapid ageing could fade away this favorable environment The take-off could provide sustainable benefits to all segments of the population The take-off could provide sustainable benefits to all segments of the population Demographic bonus alone would not sufficient enough for Economic take-off Demographic bonus alone would not sufficient enough for Economic take-off It is an opportunity that should not be missed It is an opportunity that should not be missed