1. A demographic perspective to understand fertility barriers of Hong Kong Paul Yip Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Hong Kong

2. Outlines An overview of the population and marriage distribution An analysis of Total fertility rate (the number babies born to a woman over the child bearing period) Opportunities and challenges

3. Population size of Hong Kong SAR Average annual growth rate 1971 - 762.34 1976 - 813.23 1981 - 861.53 1986 - 910.62 1991 - 961.80 1996 - 010.94 2001 - 040.84

4. Number of births and TFRs of HK, 1961 - 2004

6. Net nuptiality (female), Hong Kong, 1981 and 2001 19812001 Age(x)l(x)nL(x)l'(x)nL'(x)ml(x)nL(x)l'(x)nL'(x)m 01000499210004991 599849889964981 1099749829964979 1599649749964786 3.8 99549769954924 1.0 2099449639193327 33.0 99549719744343 12.6 2599249514121151 76.8 99449657633072 38.1 30989493348169 96.6 99249574661926 61.1 3598549062078 98.4 99149463051390 71.9 4097848631151 99.0 98849282511181 76.0 4596747999983221

7. Age-specific fertility rates of Hong Kong, 1971-2004

8. Percentage distribution of live births by order of live birth, 1981-2003

9. Total marital fertility rates The TMFR depends on age of marriage Overall, the TMFR has also decreased for the past 2 decades In 2001, the TMFR for resident women was around 2 (close to the replacement level), given that they got married at 20 However, the figure would shrink to 1.6 if they got married at 25

10. Marriage age postponement

11. Marriage squeeze phenomenon in Hong Kong (1) Number of never married Age group 1971197619811986199119962001 Man25 - 34108141219274290313296 35 - 44403739446190112 45 - 5413172421172134 25 - 54161195282339368424442 Woman20 - 29128184275325311326337 30 - 3999264984122141 40 - 498667172956 20 - 49145199307381412477534 Deficit(-)/surplus(+) of single woman -1642542445392

12. Assuming the 2001 marriage pattern prevails, it is projected that about 29.7% of males and 24% of female would remain single when they reach 40

13. Marriage squeeze phenomenon in Hong Kong (2)

14. Total marital fertility rates by age of marriage in Hong Kong, 1981 - 2001

15. Total marital fertility rates of Hong Kong by age of getting married, 2001

16. Live births of Hong Kong by residence of parents, 1991 - 2004

17. Proportions of live births in Hong Kong by residence of parents, 1991 – 2004

18. Number of live births in Hong Kong by residence of mothers, 1981 - 2003

19. Reasons for decline of TFR Reduction on marital fertility rate Increase in the number of spinsterhood Late marriage (median age on first marriage: 30 males and 27 females) Imbalance of the supply and demand (bachelors vs. spinsters) about 90,000 of women (age 20-44) outnumbers men (25- 49)

20. WHY? A study on Barriers to Fertility for married couples Knowledge Attitude and Practice (KAP) study by the Family Planning Association A similar study entitled “Barriers on Fertility” Yip, Lee and Lam, (2002) The three major concerns: 1. Unfavorable Economic condition 2. Unsatisfactorily Education service 3. Individual preference.

22. Number of spinsterhood is increasing

23. Proportion of ever married persons

24. Fertility Do we have a problem? Yes! Is it a tempo problem? No!

25. Speed and Magnitude of the reduction of the Fertility It is the speed and the magnitude of the reduction of the fertility rate,

26. What can we learn from the overseas countries Different measures have been implemented in many countries which have experienced low fertility (i.e. Australia, France, Italy, Japan, Singapore, Sweden and USA) that inhibit fertility decline. Are they relevant in Hong Kong?

27. Total fertility rates of Hong Kong and selected low fertility economies, 1995 – 2002 Year Asian economies Non-Asian economies Hong KongSingaporeJapanSwedenNorwayNetherlandsAustraliaDenmarkUKGermanyUS 19951.31.671.421.741.871.531.831.811.711.251.98 19961.171.661.431.611.891.531.81.751.731.321.98 19971.11.611.391.521.861.561.781.751.721.371.97 19980.991.471.381.51.811.631.761.72 1.362 19990.971.471.341.51.851.651.761.741.691.362.01 20001.021.61.361.551.851.721.761.771.641.382.06 20010.931.411.331.571.781.711.731.751.631.352.03 20020.961.371.321.651.751.731.751.731.641.342.01

28. Window closes earlier when the age truncating for total dependency ratio changed Source: United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision

29. The challenges: Quantity vs Quality How to revert the low fertility: Replacement Migration: Healthy Population:

30. Low fertility About 60% reduction is due to change of marital distribution rather than the reduction of marital fertility rate Promoting fertility: CS suggested to have three. Due to the late marriage, they might not be able to catch up (1 st order of birth 24.8 in 1981 to 29.8 in 2003) Engage the newborns from Mainland born mothers in Hong Kong. (Of course, solve the critical staff problem first)

31. Replacement migration About more than 80% of the population growth from migration. The new comers rejuvenate and inject new blood into the community. They are not coming (38100 one-way permit holders in 2004). Impact on the labour force: postponement of the retirement age. Successful experience in Shanghai about 30% are newly migrants

32. Population pyramid of Hong Kong 1976, 2003 and 2033

33. Replacement Migration: slow down ageing

34. Healthy Population Life-long health promotion and practice Healthy life style. Prevention: to prevent unnecessary health cost: for example, smoking and attempted or completed suicides

35. To remove the obstacles for getting married and bearing babies Economic and Financial impact is a real concern. A community consensus is needed. How much the community is willing to pay for it? A higher tax?

36. Discussions Social Responsibility and Individual choice? Someone has to pay for it. No free lunch!

37. Time to Act Now Analogy of a clock: Second arm (politics) Minute arm (economic policy) Hour arm (demography policy)

38. Thank you