1. G228: South Asian Politics
Phud. Bard’s pictorial scroll. c N. India.
G228: South Asian Politics
Matthew C.J. Rudolph, Ph.D.

2. Indo-US Relations and South Asia
Cold War
US allied to Pakistan
India allied to the Soviet Union
After the Cold War
US pulls out of Afghanistan and Pakistan
India lost strategically; approaches the US
US: “Stop, roll back, and eliminate nukes”
During the Cold War, the dynamics were pretty clear. Pakistan was the US ally. It was a frontline state, part of the CENTO treaty that brought together Iran and Turkey in a ring around the southern Soviet Union.
The US and India flirted somewhat in 1962 and 1963 after China defeated India quite badly. The Kennedy Administration actually offered India the nuclear bomb prior to the Chinese tests in 1964, but India did not want to get too close to any superpower.
Eventually, however, at the time of the 1971 when the US backed Pakistan much more, India signed a friendship treaty with the Soviet Union.
The closest relationship between the United States and Pakistan occurred in the 1980s when Pakistan was the conduit for US assistance to the Afghan mujahidin. It was during this period that Pakistan acquired nuclear weapons to balance the Indian nukes with a wink and nod from the United States.
The end of the Cold War unseated these entrenched relationships. The US pulls out not only from Afghanistan, but also from Pakistan. Most importantly, the US puts pressure on the Pakistanis to stop its nuclear program. The Pressler Amendment, which required the President to certify that Pakistan was not building nukes in order to continue to receive aid, comes into play. For years before then, President Reagan has certified Pakistan’s as not building nukes, but President Bush in 1990 not to certify and Pakistan is cut loose.
India too is lost strategically. Its primary international supporter and arms supplier suddenly disappears. It suffers from debt crisis that requires the country to physically mortgage its gold. An Indian Air Force aircraft carries tonnes of gold to the Bank of England.
India approaches the US to review its relationship, but all the US is interested in at that time is nuclear proliferation. In the words of the policymakers of the time: to Stop, roll back, and eliminate the Indian program).

3. Kashmir: Still the Crux of the Rivalry?
Siachen Glacier – 17,000 to 19,000 ft
Kashmir has been the crux of Indo-Pakistani rivalry since 1947
Wagah border post, evening closing ceremonies

4. The Importance of Kashmir
The main point of contention between India and Pakistan.
3 wars: 1947, 1965, 1999 over Kashmir. (ongoing skirmishes)
Insurgency since 1989 – death of 35,000-60,000

5. Kashmir Dispute Kashmir dispute dates back to 1947 Partition of India
Pakistan claims Kashmir because of Muslim majority population
India claims Kashmir as part of multi-religious, multi-ethnic nation
First India-Pakistan war fought over Kashmir ( )
Ceasefire line established following war, UN monitoring
1965 India-Pakistan war
After 1971 Bangladesh war, Line of Control re-established
Major insurgency after 1989
1999 Kargil war
Peace Talks
2002 and 2008 state elections

7. Origin of the Conflict
• – Muslim Nationalist movement reached its peak with the Urban professional/Elite Muslims demand for independence based on Muslim symbols. (Muslim League)
• –British exit leaving behind two nations, India and Pakistan, and a disputed territory of Kashmir.

8. The Design of the Partition
• Muslim Majority Areas
• Elite Choice
• Feasibility

9. Kashmir: Time Line of Critical Events
1946 election – Muslim League wins in Muslim Majority Area; Pakistan and India independence plans are announced; Kashmir announces a separate state. Riots in the country.
August 1947 – British departure – three countries.
October Armed Muslim Tribes from Pakistan enter Kashmir. (Supported by the Pakistani military).
Mah. Hari Singh and Sheikh Abdullah ask Nehru for Military Assist.
Deal based on Accession, Autonomy, Plebiscite
Article 370: Employment, Land.
Ceasefire lines established (UN).
Nehru & Gandhi
Nehru & Gandhi

10. Kashmir: Time Line of Critical Events
1963 – Askai Chin (China)
1965 – India-Pakistan War (Nuclearizing India)
Line of Control (Bhutto/I.Gandhi)
1989 – Insurgency and Violence begins
1999 – Kargil War (Nuclear Nations)
Nehru & Gandhi
Nehru & Gandhi

11. Kashmir Divided

12. Pakistani Kashmir Azad Kashmir - Same issues as rest of Pakistan.
• Northern Kashmir
- Tribal and chiefs.
- Local Bazaar/Tribal Economy
- Low rates of literacy (12%)
• Hub for anti-India jihadi groups.
- Earthquake made these groups visible

13. Indian Kashmir – Religious Demography and Population Density
Nehru & Gandhi
Nehru & Gandhi
• The Valley: Predominantly Muslim; 1990 exodus on Hindus; Srinagar
• Jammu: Predominantly Hindus and Sikhs; Jammu
• Ladhakh: 50% Buddhists, Muslims – 49 percent (Shia majority); Leh

14. Kashmir: Control and Population Distribution
Controlled
Area
Population
Hindus
Muslims
Buddhists
Others
India
Jammu
3 million
67%
30% - 3%
The Valley
4 million 4%
95%
Ladakh
.25 million
49%
50% 1%
Pakistan
N. Areas .9
99%
Azad Kashmir
.26
China
Aksai Chin ?

15. Causes of Conflict I: External Intrusion
• Pakistan launched a proxy war for US and Saudi Arabia during Afghan’s Soviet era ( ) producing several jihadi groups targeting the “godless” Soviet Union and the Shias.
• Kashmir became the new front for Jihad and Hindus the new infidels.
• India deployed more troops to Kashmir in the 1990’s to “fight fire with fire.”
Nehru & Gandhi
Nehru & Gandhi
Associated Radical Jihadi Groups from Pakistan
• Lashkar e-Toiba (LeT; 1980) • Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM; 2000)
• Hizbul Mujahideen (HUM) • Jamaat Ul- Mujahideen (JuM)
• Harkat-ul- Ansar (HUA) • Jammu and Kashmir Lib. Front (JKLF; 1964;1988)

16. Domestic Political Incentives for Conflict
: Nehru period – National Conference (NC) and the Congress have a deal which sometimes included Sheikh Abdullah.
During this period. India tries to constitutionally extend itself into Kashmir.
Sheikh Abdullah in and out of jail during this time. NC stays in powers.
– Abdullah and Gandhi accord. National Conference in power marginalizing other groups.
Polarization of other religious groups as well other Muslim opposition within NC and without. (Language and religious symbols.)
• Indira Gandhi Emergency
• NC part of the opposition to the Emergency in 1979
Nehru & Gandhi
Nehru & Gandhi
No Insurgency

17. Domestic Political Incentives for Conflict II
• IG returns in 1980s – centralizes power.
Attempts to oust Farooq Abdullah.
Kashmiri Muslim backlash at undemocratic moves by opening doors to external insurgents.
Rise of BJP in the 1980s. (Hindu backlash and Congress).
J&K National Panther Party (Hindu/Kashmir – 1950).
Ladhakh Union Front Territory (led by LBA 1989) (Buddhist Backlash)
Rising tensions due to conversions and desecration claims.
Increasing attacks on each other by the youth starting in 1989 onwards.
1999 election – 28% - Conference backed by the BJP govt. Alliance. (Hindu/Muslim Cooperation; excluding the separatist groups)
2002 – Pakistan promises to withdraw support for Sunni radical groups
2004 election – 46% - Peoples Democratic Party and Congress alliance. (Hindu/Muslim/Buddhist Cooperation)
Nehru & Gandhi
Nehru & Gandhi

18. Other Points of Contention
Military presence, “occupation,” and civil military relations.
120,000 to 200,000 personnel.
Military Economy
Military-civil relations
Development of the region.
Water sharing with Pakistan
Baglihar/Kashmir Dam
Associated Separatist Groups
• All Party Hurriyat Conference umbrella organization
• Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front
1964; 1988; 1996

19. Viability of Independent Kashmir
Pakistan’s historical perspective
- Inherent Part of Pakistan- incomplete
partition
- China’s support (domestic reasons)
• Indian’s historical perspective.
- Secularism offered them a place
- Indian Muslims
(140 mil vs Kashmiri 8mil)
- Setting precedence for ethnic groups - Kashmiriyat
• Recent Resource Value
- Crossroads for rivers emerging from Himalaya

20. After Mumbai “26-11”: Will India & Pakistan Fight Another War?
Conventional wars
First Kashmir war
1962 Sino-Indian border war
1965 Rann of Kutch/Kashmir war
1971 E. Pakistan/Bangladesh war
advent of mutual nuclear capabilities
Two serious crises
Brasstacks crisis
1990 Kashmir crisis
1999 limited war in Kargil
Continued fighting in Kashmir
2002 military standoff
Peace Talks
2008 Mumbai Attacks
India’s adherence to this approach has coincided with the emergence of
more restrained Pakistani behavior, with Pakistan gradually taking steps to
reduce, though not eliminate, cross-border violence.83 The ensuing thaw in
Indo-Pakistani relations has seen the initiation of a cease-.re along the Line of Control; a resumption of air and rail links between India and Pakistan; a written
commitment by Pakistan not to allow its territory to be used for terrorist
activity; meetings between the Indian government and leaders of the Kashmiri
separatist All Parties Hurriyat Conference; and peace talks between the Indian
and Pakistani foreign secretaries.

21. U.S. Policy Challenges Balance of interests dilemma
U.S. interests are different, less intense and more sporadic than those of local actors.
Serves to limit U.S. influence
Regional security vs. counterterrorism
Solve Kashmir dispute or counter terrorists?
War prevention vs. nonproliferation
Prevent nuclear states from going to war, or prevent war-prone states from going nuclear?
Efforts to solve regional problems might create undesirable precedents
e.g., technical assistance for C3
Security assistance dilemma
U.S. efforts to increase one country’s security might increase other side’s insecurity.
e.g., missile defenses

22. S.P. Mukherjee, Iconic Antidote and Progenitor: Kashmir, Leadership Lineage and the BJP in Crisis

23. Shyama Prasad Mukherjee 1901-1953
S.P. Mukherjee, Iconic Antidote and Progenitor: Kashmir, Leadership Lineage and the BJP in Crisis
Shyama Prasad Mukherjee

24. Tripolia Bazaar, Jaipur Where Mukherjee made the “Ek Nishan, Ek Pradhan, Ek Vidhan” speech

26. BJP HQ Delhi 2003: Mukherjee Portrait in Rear Dpty
BJP HQ Delhi 2003: Mukherjee Portrait in Rear Dpty. PM Advani and BJP Gen. Sec. Naidu

27. Nehru and Sheikh Abdullah
Ek Vidhan, Ek Nishan, Ek Pradhan One Constitution, One Flag, One Prime Minister
Jammu and Kashmir Flag
The Two PMs:
Nehru and Sheikh Abdullah

28. Jammu and Kashmir

29. Deccan Herald Wednesday, June 24, 1953 S. P. Mookerjee Is Dead
NEW DELHI, June 23 Dr. Syama Prasad Mookerjee, 52-year-old leader of the All India Bharatiya Jan Sangh and former Minister of the Central Government, passed away in the early hours of today at Srinagar. Dr. Mookerjee, who was under detention for entering the Kashmir State without permit, died of heart attack at 3.40 a.m. in the nursing home of the State Hospital.

30. Questions