1. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service Streamflow Regulation Projects 3.1 Missouri Basin River Forecast Center Pleasant Hill, MO Fourth Annual Missouri Basin River Forecaster’s Meeting 20-21 February 2013 Gregg Schalk, P. E. Senior Hydrologist

2. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service Streamflow Regulation FY12 Projects 3.2 Missouri Basin River Forecast Center Pleasant Hill, MO  Complete FY12 oRES-SIM model completed for 7 reservoirs in the Lower Kansas Basin oImplement operationally by EOF FY13 AHPS Long-Range Probability Outlooks for all the Kansas Basin forecast points oModel and Report given to KCCOE, RES-SIM -> Report available oModel extended with internal scripts – Downstream Control Representation (channel capacities) Model computational times (30 minutes compared to 4 hours for a 50-year run). Balancing algorithm specified in the water control manuals cannot be specified using the built-in balancing functions. oReservoirs modeled according to the rules specified in the water control manuals, with the exception of the lower 5% of the flood control pool where there is greater operational flexibility.

3. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service Streamflow Regulation FY13 Projects 3.3 Missouri Basin River Forecast Center Pleasant Hill, MO  Current Projects FY13 oDiversion Modeling and runoff modeling in the Upper Missouri above Canyon Ferry Model biased when diversions not accounted for oUpdate of 7 North Platte River Reservoirs Models COE Silver Jackets Project Lake McConaughy will be modeled with RES-SIM Updated RES-J model for the other 6 reservoirs

4. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service Streamflow Regulation Future Projects 3.4 Missouri Basin River Forecast Center Pleasant Hill, MO  Planned Projects FY14 (Pending Funding; Contractor) oRES-SIM models for 6 Reservoirs in the Upper Missouri including Canyon Ferry.  Future Projects - Numerous reservoirs to be modeled and numerous diversion reaches oBelow Canyon Ferry and above Ft. Peck Res MT (Reservoir and Diversion Models) oOsage Basin KS/MO (7 Reservoirs, Adapt COE developed model) oMissouri Mainstem System MT/ND/SD (Adapt COE developed model?) oBighorn Basin WY (5 Reservoir and Diversion Models) oLower Yellowstone MT (Diversion Models) oPelican Lake SD oUpdate all existing Models like Upper James

5. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service Streamflow Regulation Projects WHY?? 3.5 Missouri Basin River Forecast Center Pleasant Hill, MO  Why do we want to Model Streamflow Regulation?? oAnswer: Probabilistic Outlooks and Forecast HEFS – Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service –NWS, Office of Hydrologic Development new ensemble modeling approach to produce short to long-term forecast and or outlooks. –Plugs into exist new CHPS/FEWS forecasting framework –Roll-out begins in FY14 –Regulation models needed to capture full capability oConcerns with Probabilistic Forecasts driven by Regulation Models Reservoir models can produce unrealistic results Coordination like 2011 event on Mainstem nearly impossible Deterministic vs. Probabilistic forecast oPros with Probabilistic Forecasts driven by Regulation Models Captures Uncertainty (Temperature/Precip; Model parameter and structure), Range of possible scenarios Decision Support Tools – NYC Dept Environment Protection developing Operational Support Tools to use HEFS information

6. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service Streamflow Regulation Projects Methods 3.6 Missouri Basin River Forecast Center Pleasant Hill, MO  What Methods for Modeling Streamflow Regulation?? oAnswer: Consumptive Use for diversion regulation – includes canal capacities and availability models. oAnswer: All Future Reservoir models done with RES-SIM Use existing COE developed models Model Limitations extended by internal scripting capability  Regulation Modeling – Community effort needed for the best possible model: oContractor support oReview of model approaches oCommunity Model approach – shared model

7. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service HEFS Components How do they fit together? MEFP Weather/climate forecasts Forcing input ensembles Hydrologic Ensemble Processor EVS Post- processed Input flow data Graphics Generator Verification products Ensemble products “Raw” EnsPost flow ensembles Initial conditions and model parameters (e.g. DA) Data Assimilator - possible post HEFSv1 enhancement MEFP PE MEFP Parameters EnsPost PE EnsPost Parameters Time series 3.7

8. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service Questions? ? 3.8 Missouri Basin River Forecast Center Pleasant Hill, MO