1. Climate Change in Developing Countries Introduction

2.  Climate change impacts all earth  Least developed countries are poorest  Hard for countries to adapt  Climate change-leads to droughts & less water resources, floods, disease, loss of food sources

3. What is Weather?  State of atmosphere at some place & time described by quantitative variables :  temperature,  humidity,  cloudiness, precipitation,  wind speed and direction  Place & time must be designated eg New York & Phoenix at noon. France, 2007 NY Times Kansas

4. Arizona,2000; NASA LA, Dec ’07, LA Times Los Angeles River 2003 rain season Griffith Park

5. New Orleans Interstate 10 17 th Street Levee BreachLakeview Richard J. Pasch -NHC

6. Katrina & Destructive Weather  Devastated New Orleans because:  Strength of Hurricane  New Orleans = populated coastal area in path of hurricane  New Orleans below sea level because of sinking Mississippi River sediments  Must build levees along river to confine it.  Some levees not stable  New Orleans had poor evacuation plan  Many developing nations along coast and in path of hurricanes

7. 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON STATISTICS NAMEDATES MIN. PRESS (MB) MAX. WINDS (MPH) DIRECTDEATHS U.S. DAMAGE ($ million) TS ARLENE 8 - 13 JUN 989 989 70 70 1 minor minor TS BRET 28 - 30 JUN 1002 40 40 1 H CINDY 3 - 7 JUL 991 991 75 75 1 320 320 H DENNIS 4 - 13 JUL 930 930 150 (4) 150 (4) 42 42 2230 2230 H EMILY 11 - 21 JUL 929 929 160 (5) 160 (5) 6 minor minor TS FRANKLIN 21 - 29 JUL 997 997 70 70 TS GERT 23 - 25 JUL 1005 45 45 TS HARVEY 2 - 8 AUG 994 994 65 65 H IRENE 4 - 18 AUG 970 970 105 (2) 105 (2) TS JOSE 22 - 23 AUG 998 998 60 60 6 H KATRINA 23 - 30 AUG 902 902 175 (5) 175 (5) 1200 1200 75000 75000 TS LEE 28 AUG - 2 SEP 1006 40 40 H MARIA 1 - 10 SEP 962 962 115 (3) 115 (3) H NATE 5 - 10 SEP 979 979 90 (1) 90 (1)

8. New Orleans Interstate 10 17 th Street Levee BreachLakeview Richard J. Pasch -NHC

9. Orleans Parish St Rita’s Nursing Home, St Bernard Parish Richard J. Pasch -NHC

10. What is Climate?  Weather conditions at some locality averaged over specified time period  International convention is average values of climatic elements (e.g. rainfall, temperatures, snowfall) over past 30 years  Climatology is study of climate

11. Factors that influence climate  Latitude  Elevation  Higher = cooler, lower warmer  Topography  Mountains, wet on one side, dry on other  Proximity to water  Oceans result in cooler coastal temperatures  Ocean circulation  Transport heat  Air Circulation

12. Climate Changes With Distance From Equator  Places at high latitudes (far from the equator) receive less sunlight than places at low latitudes (close to the equator). Amount of sunlight and precipitation affects types of plants and animals that live in a place. Listed below are the types of ecosystems that exist in different climates The types of ecosystems that develop in this warm environment are:  Rainforests: Rainforests receive a lot of rain. Temperature stays warm in the rainforest all year long. Rainforests  Savanna: This ecosystem has a wet season and a very dry season.  Deserts: Deserts receive less rainfall than other tropical ecosystems but are just as warm. Deserts  Chaparrel: This ecosystem has wet-winters and dry-summers.  Grasslands: This ecosystem is typically found on the dry interior of continents. Grasslands:  Temperate forest: A moist climate allows leafy deciduous trees to thrive. Temperate forest Temperate forest  High latitudes receive the least sunlight, creating cold climates.  Taiga: The forests of the taiga ecosystem survive despite long and very cold winters. Summers are short and still quite cool.  Tundra: Ocean winds in arctic coastal areas keep the temperatures from being as severe as interior regions. A long, chilly winter season is followed by a mild season. Tundra:

13. What is Climate Change?  Climate of Earth always changing.  “Climate change” generally refers to changes in climate identified since the early part of the 1900's.  Changes thought to be mostly from human behavior than from natural changes in the atmosphere.  Greenhouse effect important- - relates to gases which keep Earth warm. Extra greenhouse gases which humans have released thought to pose strongest threat.

14. Figure SPM.4  Models show humans responsible for most climate change http://www.ipcc.ch/

15.  Not all parts of earth warming  Some cooling  Some areas will see droughts  Others, more rain

16. Changes in temperature are unevenly distributed Degrees C Trends for 1950-98 (http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/) Meteorological Service of Canada Meteorological Service of Canada

17. Sea Ice Greenland sunset © Christian Morel (http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/) © RADM Harley D. Nygren/Department of Commerce

18. Arctic Ocean sea ice is becoming less Meteorological Service of Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Extensive Meteorological Service of Canada Meteorological Service of Canada

19. Glaciers Copyright: Hans Oerter/Alfred-Wegener-Institut

20. Length of Glaciers

22. Global mean combined land/ocean temperature, including error margin Source: IPCC(2001) Meteorological Service of Canada Meteorological Service of Canada

23.  Anomaly  Departure from some range of measurements  Example Temperature Anomaly:  Range 1961-1990  If range average = 20 C  & measurement = 20.5 C  Then anomoaly is 0.5 C

24. Change in Global Temperatures  Global Temp increase 0.74 C (book) 1.3F  13.7 C -1905; 14.4 -2005  17.5-20 C ice caps melt  o F= 1.8 * o C + 32

25. Change in Annual Temperature 2035-2060

26. Droughts M. Hoerling and J. Eischeid NOAA (Southwest Hydrology, 2007

29. Recent California Fires NASA/MODIS July ‘08 Summer ’07 NASA Images

30. Seal Level Change--Tide Gauge Observations Average Rate ~ 1.8 mm/year 0.8 mm/year 2.0 mm/year 3.2 mm/year [Church and White, 2006] ~ 8 inches (20 cm) = 16,000 cubic miles!!! = 54 billion acre feet!!!!!!!

32. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001: 21st century warming may be enough to melt the Greenland Ice Sheet >21 feet sea level

33. Climate Change Impacts

34. Loss of Animal Habitat

35. Hot Air = Bad Air

36. What are Developing Countries  Developing countries – all countries and territories in Africa; all countries in the Americas except the US, Canada, Bahamas, Bermuda, Cayman Islands and Falkland Islands; all countries in Asia and the Middle East except Japan, Brunei, Hong Kong, Israel, Kuwait, Qatar, Singapore, Taiwan and United Arab Emirates; all countries in the Pacific apart from Australia and New Zealand; plus the European states of Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Gibraltar, Malta, Moldova, Turkey and ex-Yugoslavia. http://www.globalhumanitarianassistance.org/a-h.htm

37. Climate change impacts in developing countries Environmental Impacts  Changes in rainfall patterns  Increased frequency and severity of: Floods  Droughts  Storms  Heat waves  Changes in growing seasons  Changes in water quality and quantity  Sea level rise  Glacial melt Socio-economic resources and sectors affected  Water resources  Agriculture and forestry  Food security  Human health  Infrastructure (e.g. transport)  Settlements: displacement of inhabitants and loss of livelihood  Coastal management  Industry and energy  Disaster response and recovery plans

38. Vulnerability of developing countries to climate change Areas in tropical and sub-tropical regions most seriously affected : Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Small Island States (e.g Mauritius) Poverty exacerbates, and is exacerbated by, the impacts of environmental change:  Between 1990 and 1998, 97% of natural disaster-related deaths occurred in developing countries. 90% of all natural disasters are climate, weather and water related. Livelihoods are highly dependent on climate-sensitive resources:  Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa, of which up to 90% is rain-fed, accounts for 70% of regional employment and 35% of gross national product. Low adaptive capacity:  Poorest inhabitants of developing countries, struggle to cope with current extreme weather events and climate variability. Those dependent on natural resources:  Especially subsistence farmers dependent on rain-fed crops. Shanty town dwellers:  Living on unsuitable land, often unstable and/or flood prone and lacking infrastructure. Those living in extreme poverty: UN estimate that 1.3 billion people live on less than $1 per day.