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NextGen JPDO Update Annual NGATS Institute Public Meeting June 21, 2007 Charles A. Leader Director, Jay Merkle, Chief Architect Joint Planning and Development.

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Presentation on theme: "NextGen JPDO Update Annual NGATS Institute Public Meeting June 21, 2007 Charles A. Leader Director, Jay Merkle, Chief Architect Joint Planning and Development."— Presentation transcript:

1 NextGen JPDO Update Annual NGATS Institute Public Meeting June 21, 2007 Charles A. Leader Director, Jay Merkle, Chief Architect Joint Planning and Development Office

2 It ’ s More Than Just the Movement of People and Goods Aviation and Aerospace represent 5.4% of U.S. GDP.Aviation and Aerospace represent 5.4% of U.S. GDP. If expanded to include related industries, its 9% of U.S. GDPIf expanded to include related industries, its 9% of U.S. GDP Contributes 11 million jobs to our economyContributes 11 million jobs to our economy

3 One Billion+ Passengers in U.S. Skies by 2015 Potential for Triple Demand by 2025 New Entrants Such as Very Light Jets Global Market Opportunities U.S. Travel and Tourism to Grow 4.2% Annually All Signs Point to Continued Strong Growth

4 General Aviation Challenges Maintaining access to National AirspaceMaintaining access to National Airspace Preserving VFRPreserving VFR Limiting Equipage CostsLimiting Equipage Costs Limiting Restricted AirspaceLimiting Restricted Airspace

5 Air Taxi/VLJ Challenges Personal Air Travel Alliance Survey of top five Air Taxi OperatorsPersonal Air Travel Alliance Survey of top five Air Taxi Operators –500 VLJ’s within three years –200-300 mile average flight –18,000 – 21,000 feet altitude at 340 knots –Primarily secondary airport destinations –Target 1000 hrs/yr operation per VLJ –Dramatic Demand growth outside legacy carrier route structure

6 Defense (DoD/DHS) Airspace Challenges 13,000 aircraft fleet13,000 aircraft fleet Management of Air Defense Identification zonesManagement of Air Defense Identification zones Temporary flight restrictionsTemporary flight restrictions Special Use AirspaceSpecial Use Airspace Equipage costsEquipage costs Homeland Defense RequirementsHomeland Defense Requirements

7 Transformation Started Yesterday  Real World Improvements Being Delivered Now  Transformational Building Blocks  Network Enabled Operations: The Big Picture  Revolutionizing Air Navigation and Surveillance

8 Building NextGen ATM “view” of evolution FY07 – 11 4DT Management Performance-Based Ops & Services Equivalent Visual Ops (CDTI) Roles of Pilots & Controllers FY19 – 25 Research for Transformed NextGen State Research Complete R&D leading to mid-term Continue R&D that address long-term NextGen challenges Develop & implement known & new procedures, infrastructure, technologies Develop NextGen systems integration plan for mid-term transition to NextGen Complete infrastructure and systems engineering for mid-term Core Technologies, Capabilities & Sys Eng Epoch 1 FY07-11 Aircraft equipped for the mid-term & upgradeable to NextGen target Deliver NextGen services & capabilities across domains Complete “hard” infrastructure – airports, runways, terminals, security Management & operating models support transition to NextGen and long-term sustainability Mid-Term Transition to NextGen Epoch 2FY12-18 FY12 – 18 Super Density Operations Time-Based Surface Ops Right Sizing of Facilities NextGen solutions fully-integrated & operating across air transportation system Services managed & operating in ways that achieve transformational outcomes across air transportation system NextGen Solutions Fully Integrated & Operating Epoch 3 FY19-25

9 “What” The NextGen transformed state will be -Narrative -System Documentation “Who, When and How” The NextGen capabilities will be researched, developed and implemented “Why” The NextGen investments make sense Concept of Operations Enterprise Architecture Integrated Work Plan OMB Business Case Exhibit 300 NextGen Plan June 2007 July 2007 Sept 2007

10 JPDO Product Development  NextGen Concept of Operations (ConOps) –V2 was completed on June 13, 2007  NextGen Enterprise Architecture –V2 to be completed by June 22, 2007 –V2 in FEA Format to be sent to OMB by the end of June

11 JPDO Product Development – Cont-d  Integrated Work Plan -Roadmap of operational improvements between today and full NextGen in 2025 (~ 69 ATM OIs) -Includes development and implementation, R&D, and Policy efforts required to achieve the operational improvements -Dependencies and critical path -Initial Baseline is on schedule to be completed by the end of July 2007

12  Exhibit 300 – Business Case -Will define the NextGen investment portfolio across all partner agencies -Draft to be completed by June -Final to OMB in September JPDO Product Development – Cont-d

13 Supporting Capabilities  Modeling and Simulation –National Virtual Test Bed (NVTB) Quantifies OMB Business Case Requirements  “One-Story” Analysis –Models benefits, cost, risk –Supports safety and environmental case –Identifies Priority Areas  NGATS Institute –Funded studies of key issues

14 Key Capabilities: Performance-Based Operations and Services  Collaborative ATM  Trajectory-based Ops.  Modernized Surface Ops.  Trajectory-based Separation Management  Weather Impacted Ops.  Dynamic Resource & Aerospace Management

15 Key Capabilities: Network Enabled Information Access  Network Enabled Operations (NEO)  Network Enabled Infrastructure (NEI)  Network Enabled Weather (NEW)

16 Key Capabilities: Weather Assimilated into Decision Making  Net-centric weather information is made available and understandable to all approved users  A reliable virtual, common weather picture is foundational for optimal air transportation decision-making  Presentation of weather data is tailored to user operational needs  Widespread use of integrated probabilistic weather-related decision support systems  Automatic updates to users based on operational need  An adaptive observing system integrating ground, airborne and spaced-based sensors

17 Key Capabilities: Layered Adaptive Security  Adaptive Security for People, Cargo, Airports and Aircraft  Risk Assessment-Driven Evaluation and Response  Positive Identification for People and Cargo  Preventive Threat Detection and Mitigation

18 Key Capabilities: Position, Navigation and Timing Services (PNT)  Air routes are independent of the location of ground-based navigation aids  RNAV is used everywhere; RNP is used where required  System performance meets operational needs to service the demand  Increased availability of guided approaches at smaller airports* * Mostly for general aviation with lower minimums

19 Key Capabilities: Aircraft Trajectory-Based Operations Services and Operations based on precise trajectory execution  Self-Separation Services  Flow Corridors  Super Density Arrival/Departure Airspace

20 Key Capabilities: Equivalent Visual Operations  Improved information availability which allows aircraft operations without regard to visibility  Access to PNT enables increased accessibility for airport surface and arrival/departure operations  Enables more predictable and efficient operations regardless of meteorological conditions

21 Key Capabilities: Super Density Operations  Use of RNP operations and procedures  Mitigation of wake vortex constraints  Improved runway incursion prevention algorithms  Automatic distribution of runway braking action reports  Distribution of taxi instructions before landing  Use of aircraft sensors

22 Benefits of End-State NextGen Phase of FlightFlight SituationFlight Time Reduction Total Dollar Savings per Year Portion of Savings Due To Fuel Surface-Taxi out and Taxi-in Small Airports Large Airports 30 seconds 2 minutes $328 million $1.3 billion $79 million $315 million Terminal area, including departure, landing Small Airports, Good Wx Large Airports, Bad Wx 10 minutes 30 minutes $6.5 billion $19.7 billion $1.6 billion $4.7 billion Enroute (cruise phase) Good Weather Severe Weather 10 minutes 20 minutes $6.5 billion $13.1 billion $1.6 billion $3.1 billion Based upon FAA estimates of $2,736/hour of airline direct operating costs, includes variable (fuel is assumed to cost $722/hour) and fixed costs (such as depreciation), and $1,090/hour of general aviation direct operating costs (GA fuel is assumed to cost $114/hour). Assumes 36,000 airline flights/day, 16,000 general aviation IFR flights/day. Assumes all flights accrue the benefits. Benefits across flight phases are not additive due to overlapping assumptions and correlation. Source of cost data: GRA Inc., “Economic Values for FAA Investment and Regulatory Decisions, a Guide,” FAA APO, December 2004.

23 NextGen Implementation Status  Initiate Trajectory-based Operations  Increase Arrivals/Departures at High Density Airports  Increase Flexibility in the Terminal Environment  Improve Collaborative ATM  Reduce Weather Impact  Increase Safety, Security, and Environmental Performance  Transform Facilities ADS-B - Implement 1st segment of advanced surveillance & broadcast services to deliver en-route, terminal, & surface surveillance data from key sites via broadcast comm. link FY07FY09 SWIM - Implement 1st set of data exchange services using net-centric technology and architecture to support increase shared situational awareness NNEW – Demonstrate inter-agency Wx Dissemination Mgmt capabilities to Integrate effective Wx info into Operational decision-making DataComm – Develop architecture to transform from a voice-only comm. to an air-ground data comm. capability Demos & Infrastructure - Perform formal demos that advance R&D, operational concepts and key infrastructure FY08 Funded CommitmentsMid-Term Capabilities 2012 - 2018 NASA programs Aviation Safety Airspace Systems Fundamental Aeronautics 2019-2025

24 Progress  NextGen Concept of Operations and Enterprise Architecture to be base-lined June 2007  Integrated Work Plan baseline and Business Case (E-300) to be completed this summer  FAA initial system changes underway (infrastructure and initial applications) –ADS-B –SWIM –DataCom –Voice Switch –Demonstrations  FAA mid-term plan in development (Operational Evolution Partnership)  NASA research aligned (long-term transformation)  Near-term interagency initiatives: –NextGen Network-enabled Weather Joint Program Office, Safety Management System, Net-centric Information System

25 Challenges  Achieving Integration  Pace of Implementation  Overcoming Technical Hurdles  Changing Policy and Culture  Achieving Global Harmonization


27 Backup

28 The Cost of NextGen JPDO has reviewed several initial outside estimates:JPDO has reviewed several initial outside estimates: –FAA’s Research, Engineering and Development Advisory Committee (REDAC) –MITRE Avionics Estimate –FAA’s Air Traffic Organization (ATO) The First Five Years - $4.6 billion :The First Five Years - $4.6 billion : –$4.3 billion in ATO capital appropriation –and $300 million in research, engineering, and development.

29 The Cost Of NextGen – cont-d Our Partner Agencies:Our Partner Agencies: –In FY08 our partner agencies are investing a total of about $300 million in NextGen, primarily in R&D. Longer-Term Cost Estimates:Longer-Term Cost Estimates: –Next 10 years $8-10 billion –End-state or through 2025 $15-22 billion Avionics costs = $14-20 billionAvionics costs = $14-20 billion

30 NextGen Evolution NextGen Plan Epoch 1 Epoch 2 Epoch 3 JPDO Planning & Oversight Agencies Implementation Develop Reduce Risk Research Operate Develop Reduce Risk Operate Develop Alignment Feedback Alignment Feedback Alignment Feedback NextGen NextGen Plan provides mechanism for alignment and oversight Phased Implementation to manage risk and ensure intermediate benefits NEARMIDLONG Epoch 1 – Near Term Core Infrastructure, Initial Applications, & Systems Engineering Epoch 2 – Mid Term Mid-Term Transition to Primary NextGen Operations Epoch 3 – Long Term NextGen Solutions Fully Integrated - Transformation Complete

31 Figure 2 ‑ 2. ATM Decisions—Interactive and Integrated Across Time Horizons

32 Figure 2 ‑ 3. Airspace Hierarchy

33 Figure 2 ‑ 5. Collaborative ATM Among ANSP & Operators

34 Figure 2 ‑ 6. Elements of a Four-Dimensional Trajectory

35 Figure 2 ‑ 7. Flow Corridors

36 Figure 2 ‑ 8. Super-Density Terminal Operations

37 DoD Interests and Risks Operations Global access and compatibility Airspace access for test, training and readiness (continuing, reliable access Special Use Airspace resources) UAS integration, access Net-Enabled Information Sharing (NEIS) policy and architecture for compatibility in NextGen Air Security Air Domain Surveillance and Intelligence Integration Air Defense Acquisition/Resources Fleet (incl. UAS) certification and equipage Integration, planning & investment for Deployable Air Traffic Control & Landing Systems (ATCALS, including shipboard systems) Expertise & investments offer a leveraging tool for furthering NextGen design and implementation Bottom Line: NextGen will impact the way the DoD plans, funds and flies domestically and globally

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