1. Future of Surveillance in the National Airspace System

2. We’ve had a substantially volatile situation over the last 5 years
We’ve had a substantially volatile situation over the last 5 years. Traffic is returning to levels seen in 2000.
And by 2015, we project:
A billion passengers on U.S. Flag Carriers.
Domestic flights will increase by approximately 25% over 2005 levels
Passenger traffic between the US and international destinations is expected to grow by 67 %

3. This chart compares the delays we experienced in 2004 … colored in green … with the delays we project for 2014 … colored in red.
You can see the red spiking up, in some instances an average of over 50 minutes per flight. We expect that by 2014 … just seven years from now … without the introduction of new tools for managing the system … delays in the US could increase 62% over 2004 levels.
Also, because aviation is vital to the national economy, increased delays put these economic benefits in jeopardy.
The FAA is hard at work on a solution. It’s called the Next Generation Air Transportation System …
[click next slide]

4. Today’s Air Transportation System
Airport Landing, Weather, Lighting
Radar
Air/Ground Communications
NAVAIDs
Airport Traffic Control Tower (ATCT) Systems
Today’s Air Transportation System
Ground-based
Human-centric and un-automated
Single channel voice control
Aging Infrastructure (youngest en-route facility – 43 years old)
The current air transportation system is constrained in expanding to support the future economy and evolving security:
Today's System –
Ground centric – emphasis on the ground system less on aircraft capability.
One sector, one controller, one frequency (glorified walkie-talkie system), a finite number of aircraft.
One size fits all – no credit for equipage or communication, navigation capabilities.
System focused on control rather than management

5. Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen)
Transformation and Modernization of the National Airspace System
Goal is to:
Triple the amount of air traffic capacity
Further enhance safety
Strengthen Homeland Security
Protect the Environment
NextGen is a system-wide transformation and modernization of our airspace system. It’s going to involve increased use of automation and the goals include:
more ehanced safety
Tripling the amount of air traffic capacity
Building in post-9/11 security measures … and …
Protecting the environment
The Backbone of NextGen is going to be our surveillance system known as … [click]

7. Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast (ADS-B)
Periodically transmits information with no pilot or operator input required
Dependent
Position and velocity vector are derived from the Global Positioning System (GPS)
Surveillance -
A method of determining position of aircraft, vehicles, or other asset
Broadcast
Transmitted information available to anyone with the appropriate receiving equipment
Automatic
Periodically transmits information with no pilot or operator input required
Dependent
Position and velocity vector are derived from the Global Positioning System (GPS)
Surveillance -
A method of determining position of aircraft, vehicles, or other asset
Broadcast
Transmitted information available to anyone with the appropriate receiving equipment
ADS-B updates every second, in contrast to current radar technology.

8. ADS-B Milestones Final Invest- ment Decision Feb 07 RFO
Equipage Mandate
Ground Infra-
Structure
Deployed
2013
Contract
Award
Aug 07
Backup
Analysis
Jan 07
NPRM*
Sep 07
Final Rule
Nov 09
In-Service
Decision
Nov 10
Separation Standards
Pre-NPRM Activity:
Lower Risk from High
to Medium
Aug 07
Separation Standards
Approval
Sep 09
Key Site
IOC**
Apr 10
FAA awarded the $1.8 billion automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast contract to a team led by ITT Corp. The ITT team, which includes AT&T, Thales North America, WSI and PriceWaterhouseCoopers, beat teams led by Raytheon and Lockheed Martin for the contract. FAA said yesterday in Washington during a briefing for reporters. ITT provided the "best value
For the first three years of the contract, the ITT team will develop and deploy the system, gearing up to an eventual full deployment of ADS-B nationwide by 2013.
If all options are exercised, the contract could be worth $1.8 billion,
A factor in awarding the contract to ITT was AT&T's existing telecommunication infrastructure. ADS-B equipment will be installed on AT&T's cell phone towers and other installations, and the system will benefit from AT&T's existing telecommunications operations centers, he said.
Deployment of the system will occur in two phases. ADS-B will be rolled out in the Gulf of Mexico region, Philadelphia, Louisville, Ky., and Juneau, Alaska. The second phase will see the system deployed nationwide.
*Notice of Proposed Rulemaking
** Initial Operating Capability

9. Gulf of Mexico: Current Conditions
The benefits of more efficient spacing can be seen in ADS-B’s use in the Gulf of Mexico.
Gulf of Mexico: Current Conditions
Currently in areas over the Gulf of Mexico there is no surveillance available. Without any surveillance services the separation standards are approximately 15 minutes between aircraft which equates to approximately 120NM.

10. Gulf of Mexico: ADS-B Enabled
With ADS-B services (surveillance, communications and weather) in the Gulf of Mexico, FAA will be able to provide radar-like separation (currently 5NM separation).
Deploying ADS-B over the Gulf will result in greater capacity, optimized routing and savings for the Airlines. We estimate the benefits of ADS-B Out to be:
In 2017 this will allow 246,400 more flights over the Gulf
1.5B in savings due to reduced delays through 2035
With ADS-B applications in the terminal area, more efficient spacing on approach can save an additional 1.5B for commercial aviation through 2035

11. ADS-B Milestones Backup Analysis Jan 07 Final Invest- ment Decision
Feb 07
RFO
Equipage Mandate
Ground Infra-
Structure
Deployed
2013
Contract
Award
Aug 07
Backup
Analysis
Jan 07
NPRM*
Sep 07
Final Rule
Nov 09
In-Service
Decision
Nov 10
Separation Standards
Pre-NPRM Activity:
Lower Risk from High
to Medium
Aug 07
Separation Standards
Approval
Sep 09
Key Site
IOC**
Apr 10
FAA awarded the $1.8 billion automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast contract to a team led by ITT Corp. The ITT team, which includes AT&T, Thales North America, WSI and PriceWaterhouseCoopers, beat teams led by Raytheon and Lockheed Martin for the contract. FAA said yesterday in Washington during a briefing for reporters. ITT provided the "best value
For the first three years of the contract, the ITT team will develop and deploy the system, gearing up to an eventual full deployment of ADS-B nationwide by 2013.
If all options are exercised, the contract could be worth $1.8 billion,
A factor in awarding the contract to ITT was AT&T's existing telecommunication infrastructure. ADS-B equipment will be installed on AT&T's cell phone towers and other installations, and the system will benefit from AT&T's existing telecommunications operations centers, he said.
Deployment of the system will occur in two phases. ADS-B will be rolled out in the Gulf of Mexico region, Philadelphia, Louisville, Ky., and Juneau, Alaska. The second phase will see the system deployed nationwide.

12. Backup Analysis: Ground Rules - Minimum Requirements
Strategy must support ATC surveillance application
Basic en route and terminal area services
Support for other applications desirable, but not required
Continuity of services must be maintained
Must maintain at least the same level of capacity during a GPS outage that we would have during a radar outage today
3 nm separations in top ~40 high density terminals
5 nm separations in medium density terminals and en route
Coverage volume same as CENRAP coverage + top 40 terminals
Safety of operations must be maintained
Single-aircraft avionics failures must also be addressed
Strategy must be able to be implemented and made operational on or before ADS-B rule compliance date

13. Backup Analysis: Potential Backup Technologies and Methods
Surveillance
Secondary radar
Primary radar
Passive multilateration
Active multilateration
Positioning/Navigation
DME/DME/IRU
DME/DME
eLoran
IRU only
Satellite Navigation Only (SBAS/WAAS, L5, Galileo)
VOR/DME, LOC/DME, MLS/RNAV
Procedural Separation

14. Backup Analysis: Recommendation
The FAA should adopt Backup Strategy 1, “Secondary Radar”
Retain (reduced) secondary radar network to cover required airspace, and use primary radar to mitigate single-aircraft avionics failures
Requires approximately 40 terminal Secondary Surveillance Radars (SSRs) and 150 en route SSRs be retained beyond 2020 (compared to a total of approximately 380 today)
No additional equipage required for aircraft
This strategy is assessed as having the highest performance ranking and lowest life cycle cost
The FAA should revisit this assessment prior to committing to radar investments beyond 2020
Changes in evaluation assumptions could significantly affect results of this assessment
Investment decision for Strategy 1 required no later than FY2014

15. Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B): Backup System
The FAA adopted Radar as the preferred back up system.
But current radar networks are:
Aging (new ones are up to 40 years old)
Nearing the end of their service life
Expensive to maintain
The FAA adopted Radar as the preferred back up system.
Retain (reduced) secondary radar network to cover required airspace, and use primary radar to mitigate single-aircraft avionics failures
Requires approximately 40 terminal Secondary Surveillance Radars (SSRs) and 150 en route SSRs be retained beyond 2020 (compared to a total of approximately 380 today)
The FAA will revisit this assessment prior to committing to radar investments beyond 2020
Changes in evaluation assumptions could significantly affect results of this assessment
Investment decision for Strategy 1 required no later than FY2014
But current radar networks are aging. New ones are up to 40 years old … nearing the end of their service life … and expensive to maintain

16. Potential Benefits of MPAR in Civil Aviation
MPAR may prove to be a viable, cost-efficient backup to ADS-B.
MPAR may assist in achieving key NextGen capabilities such as:
Assimilating Weather into Decision-making
Aircraft Trajectory-Based Operations
Super Density Operations
MPAR may prove to be a viable, cost-efficient backup to ADS-B.
MPAR may assist in achieving key NextGen capabilities such as:
Weather Assimilated into Decision-making
Aircraft Trajectory-Based Operations
Super Density Operations

17. ADS-B Complement to Support ATC
MPAR Concept
ADS-B Complement to Support ATC
Non-Cooperative Targets
Flexibility to Support New UAS
Missions & Tasking
High Quality
Polarization Diverse
Weather Data
Efficient
Multi-Beam
Surveillance
Non-Cooperative Targets
Highlights
Multi-function Capability (aircraft, weather and other threats and special objects of interest, e.g., UAV, bird flocks, volcanic ash, etc.)
Adaptable beamsteering allows the system to expend radar resources where they’re needed, when they’re needed, and for how long they’re needed (e.g., stare).
- Revisit time based on object characteristics (e.g., faster revisit on a non-cooperative track in the terminal area vs. a cooperative track in the en route air space)
- Flexible dwell time (e.g., allows radar to “stare” target of concern or at a tornado vortex)
- Track mode (vs. track-while-scan) facilitates faster track update rates
Full Volume Weather Scan and Fast Scan Region (e.g., faster update rate for area of interest such as a gust front)
Rapid Hazardous Weather Detection

18. MPAR Performance Benefits
MPAR enables a 35% reduction in the number of radars.
MPAR can save $1.8 billion savings in replacement acquisition costs.
MPAR can save an additional $3 billion in life cycle costs over 30 years
MPAR enables a 35% reduction in the number of radars.
MPAR can save $1.8 billion savings in replacement acquisition costs.
MPAR can save an additional $3 billion in life cycle costs over 30 years

19. MPAR Approach Today Future Concept 510 Radars, 7 Types
ASR-9
ASR-11
ARSR-1/2
ARSR-3
ARSR-4
TDWR
NEXRAD
Seven System Types
Single System
Single Mission
Multi-Mission
Non-Scalable
Scalable to Mission Needs
Multiple Maintenance, Logistic and Training Prgms
Consolidated Maintenance, Logistic and Training Prgms
Mechanically Rotating
Electronically Steered
You can see that currently we have 7 types of radar: including the ASR series ... and NEXRAD.
With MPAR:
We can go from seven radar types … down to a single radar site for tracking and weather surveillance. (i.e., multi-mission)
Design is scalable to mission need (e.g., terminal gap filler)
Promote Common Air Picture between agencies
Improve detection and forecasting of wind shear, microbursts and gust fonts
Increase warning times for tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, and floods
MPAR Cost Benefits
Shared financial responsibility as a joint program with overlapping mission requirements
Potential for reducing from current system of 510 radar, and seven different types, down to 334 radar, of a single type.
Lower maintenance costs
Economic cost benefit for NextGen weather
MPAR
510 Radars, 7 Types
334 Radars, 1 Type
5000 ft AGL, Blue, weather only
Future Concept