1. THE RISE OF THE NEW LEFT: WHY VENEZUELA?

2. VENEZUELA? REALLY? An apparently stable two-party democracy
Rómulo Betancourt and Generation of 1928
Pact of Punto Fijo (1958)
No military threat
Awash in petroleum (“Venezuela Saudita”)
OPEC (1960)
PdVSA
Positive international profile
Socialist International
Diplomacy in Central America/1980s

3. SEEDS OF RESENTMENT Socioeconomic inequality
Reliance on state patronage
Petroleum as “devil’s excrement”
Concentration of power and wealth
Rural-to-urban migration
Partidocracia:
Absence of clear programs
Closed-list slates
Ageing leadership

4. POLITICAL DECAY Carlos Andrés Pérez (CAP) Voter disenchantment
Neoliberal reforms and caracazo
Attempted coups 1992
Impeachment 1993
Voter disenchantment
Turnout: 96% (1973) to 60% (1990s)
AD + COPEI vote share: 90% (1970s-80s) to 45% (1993) to 11% (1998)
Rafael Caldera wins as independent in 1993

6. THE BOLIVARIAN REVOLUTION
Domestic agenda:
Strengthening state
Redistributing wealth
Monopolizing power
Global agenda:
Opposing U.S. hegemony
Building continental solidarity
Becoming leader of developing world
Consolidating oil-producing alliances

7. INTERNAL WEAKNESSES Judiciary, rule of law and “due process”
Absence of representative institutions—e.g., courts, legislature, unions
Concentration of presidential power
Chávez’s own charisma
Economic inefficiencies
NB: defeat in November ’07 referendum, victory the following year

8. CURRENT ISSUES Leadership: Economic performance: Foreign policy:
Tightening circle of advisers
Accusations of corruption
Economic performance:
Rationing of water and electricity
Attempted price controls
Foreign policy:
Threats of war with Colombia
Rise of Lula and Brazil
Curtailing opposition:
Redistricting for elections of National Assembly
Shutdown of RCTV International