1. REVOLUTION: WHY THEN AND NOT NOW?

2. Categories for Analysis Oligarchic Rule and Top-Down Reform (1880s-1920s) Populism and Dictatorship (1930s-1970s) The Revolutionary Path (1950s-1980s) An Expansion of Democracy (1980s-Present) The Pulse of Democratic Change 13. DYNAMICS OF POLITICAL TRANSFORMATION

3. WHAT IS A REVOLUTION? “an extralegal seizure of political power, by the use or threat of force, for the purpose of bringing about structural change in the distribution of political, social, or economic power” not the same as routine barracks revolts or golpes de estado

4. WHY THEN (1950s-70s)? Authoritarian regimes  Personalist, corrupt  Military repression  No real elections Socioeconomic inequality  Communication and awareness  Cityward migration, social mobilization Marxist ideology  Call for revolution  Soviet + Chinese support Example of Cuba (1959)

5. AND NOW…? (1980s-2000s) Political democracy  Dissent through elections  Opposition victories  Emergence of “new left” Socioeconomic development  Middle-class aspirations + conservative values  Prosperity (of sorts) since 2004 Liberal ideology  Rejection of Marxism  “End of history” Example of Cuba (1990s-present)

7. THE RISE OF THE NEW LEFT: WHY? Economic—lack of growth (through 2003), poverty and inequality, frustration with Washington Consensus Political—weakness of representative institutions, inattention to poor, persistence of corruption; possibility of winning elections International—war in Iraq, opposition to Bush policies and growing distaste for American society

8. THE NEW LEFT: WHERE? South America:  Venezuela  Brazil  Argentina  Bolivia  Ecuador  Paraguay  Peru  Uruguay Central America:  Honduras  Nicaragua  El Salvador Near-Miss:  Mexico

9. THE NEW LEFT: GOALS Domestic—winning power, rearranging electoral alignments; overturning status quo, changing policy direction, promoting social justice Hemispheric—gaining support throughout Latin America, reducing U.S. hegemony Global—challenging international order, forging alliances with developing world and non-aligned nations

11. CONSEQUENCES Democracy = broad ideological spectrum, from “left” to “right” Prosperity = mixed economies; rejection of Washington Consensus Ideology = diversity rather than unity Alliances = suspicion of U.S. leadership and rules of the game

12. The End.