1. THE RISE OF THE NEW LEFT

2. READING Smith, Democracy, chs. 11-12 Cleary, “The Rise of the Left” (Course Reader #4) Modern Latin America, ch. 8 (Venezuela)

4. 9/11, THE WAR ON TERROR, AND RULES OF THE GAME 1.Nations can respond however they choose—including the use of indiscriminate force. 2.Preventive action is appropriate and acceptable. 3.There is no need to adhere to international treaties or conventions. 4.Alliances are formed around one central issue—the anti-terror campaign. Democracy and human rights are secondary issues. 5.Spectator nations must tread cautiously.

5. GWB AND LATIN AMERICA 1.Lack of high-level attention 2.Abandonment of negotiations with Mexico for immigration reform 3.Overriding concern with support for anti-terrorist campaign (not democracy) 4.Hubs, spokes, and FTAs 5.Politicization of drug war 6.Awaiting Fidel’s demise 7.Opposition to Chávez and the Pink Tide

6. RECENT TRENDS IN LATIN AMERICA Surge of leftist movements Left = social justice, Right = individual freedom Electoral victories, despite institutional obstacles Result: democracy as a protective shield

7. THE PINK TIDE: ORIGINS Economic—lack of growth (through 2003), poverty and inequality, frustration with Washington Consensus Political—weakness of representative institutions, inattention to poor, persistence of corruption International—war in Iraq, opposition to Bush policies and growing distaste for American society

8. THE PINK TIDE: MEMBERSHIP Hugo Chávez, Venezuela (1998, 2004, 2006) Lula, Brazil (2002, 2006) Néstor Kirchner and Cristina Fernández, Argentina (2003, 2007) Evo Morales, Bolivia (2005, 2009) Daniel Ortega, Nicaragua (2006) Rafael Correa, Ecuador (2006) Fernando Lugo, Paraguay (2008) Mauricio Funes, El Salvador (2009) José Mújica, Uruguay (2009) Near-Misses: Ollanta Humala, Peru (2006) Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Mexico (2006)

9. CLARIFICATIONS #1 Differentiation: right/center/left Contending leaders in/for Latin America: –Felipe Calderón? (Mexico) –Lula (Brazil) –Hugo Chávez (Venezuela)

10. CLARIFICATIONS #2 Disenchanted masses in Latin America ≠ Voters for pink tide candidates ≠ Leftist candidates for office ≠ Leftist winners of presidential elections ≠ Pro-Chávez chief executives ≠ Hugo Chávez Notes: –Tidal swell is spontaneous, not organized –Rivalries and defections

11. THE PINK TIDE: GOALS Domestic—winning power, rearranging electoral alignments; overturning status quo, possibly through institutional reform; changing policy direction Hemispheric—gaining support throughout Latin America (invoking “Bolivarian dream”), reducing U.S. hegemony Global—challenging international order, forging alliances with developing world and non-aligned nations

12. GWB AND THE PINK TIDE Strategy of “inoculation” Circumvention through FTAs Cultivation (and cooptation?) of Lula The presidential tour (March 2007): –Carefully selected sites—Brazil, Uruguay, Colombia, Guatemala, Mexico –Rhetoric of social concern –Only deliverable: ethanol agreement –The Chávez “counter-tour”

14. RISE OF HUGO CHÁVEZ 1989: Caracazo 1992: Failed military coup (amnesty 1994) 1998: Wins presidential election 1999: Installs new constitution 2002: Survives attempted coup 2004: Attains support in referendum 2006: Wins second presidential term 2007: Declines renewal of RCTV license 2007: Constitutional referendum fails 2008: Oil climbs to >$100 per barrel 2008: Referendum succeeds

15. THE PROBLEM WITH HUGO Uses language of the street (including the Arab street)—e.g., the “devil” speech Sits atop petroleum (now >$100 per barrel) Puts money where his mouth is Breaks established rules of the game Plays off resentment of Bush, U.S. power Challenges Washington Consensus and FTAA Goes for high stakes Seeks rearrangement of prevailing world order

17. JORGE AND HUGO: THE ODD COUPLE George’s “gifts” to Hugo: –discourse on democracy (e.g., Second Inaugural) –caricature of “ugly American” –unpopularity of foreign policies –inattention to Latin America And Hugo’s reciprocation: –exaggerated rhetoric –potential threats to neighboring countries –authoritarian tendencies Q1: What does Hugo do without George? Q2: What about the price of oil?

18. THE BOLIVARIAN REVOLUTION Domestic agenda: –Strengthening state –Redistributing wealth –Monopolizing power Global agenda: –Opposing U.S. hegemony –Building continental solidarity –Becoming leader of developing world –Consolidating oil-producing alliances

19. INTERNAL WEAKNESSES Judiciary, rule of law and “due process” Absence of representative institutions—e.g., courts, legislature, unions Concentration of presidential power Chávez’s own charisma Economic inefficiencies NB: defeat in November ’07 referendum, victory the following year

20. CURRENT ISSUES Leadership: –Tightening circle of advisers –Accusations of corruption Economic performance: –Rationing of water and electricity –Attempted price controls Foreign policy: –Threats of war with Colombia –Rise of Lula and Brazil Curtailing opposition: –Redistricting for September election of National Assembly –Shutdown of RCTV International

21. THE PULSE OF POLITICAL CHANGE The Nineties: –Elected governments –Washington Consensus, free trade, and FTAs with U.S. –Weak states –Illiberal regimes –Result: timid democracies The New Century: –Popular disenchantment, especially over inequality –Rejection of Washington Consensus –Restoration of state role –Inclusive politics (in part) –Result: the new left (aka “pink tide”)

22. CHALLENGING AMERICAN MYTHS The Cherished Assumption—freely elected leaders will support U.S. policy The Western Hemisphere idea—the new world is distinct from old, will forge common front in international arena Democracy rationale for “regime change”—free elections as protective shield The hegemonic presumption—the United States can dictate political life in Latin America

23. VISIONS FOR LATIN AMERICA: GWB AND USA Democratic—with tilt to right or center-right Prosperous—with commitment to free-market policies and ties to United States Unified—under U.S. leadership Peaceful—in view of unanimity Deferential—following U.S. lead in global arena

24. REALITY CHECK Democracy = broad ideological spectrum, from “left” to “right” Prosperity = mixed economies; rejection of Washington Consensus, FTAs, and FTAA Ideology = diversity rather than unity Outlooks = anti-U.S. attitudes strong and growing among large share of population Alliances = rejection of U.S. leadership and rules of the game