1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Outlook
Oct. 5, 2017
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
95.4
90.6
88.0
94.0
90.9
Yield
(bu./acre)
158.1
171.0
168.4
174.6
169.9
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,829
14,216
13,602
15,148
14,184
Beg. Stocks
821
1,232
1,731
1,737
2,295
Imports 36 32 67 55 50
Total Supply
14,686
15,479
15,401
16,940
16,530
Feed & Residual
5,040
5,280
5,120
5,480
5,475
Ethanol
5,124
5,200
5,224
5,435
Food, Seed, & Other
1,369
1,401
1,422
1,435
1,450
Exports
1,920
1,867
1,898
1,850
Total Use
13,454
13,748
13,664
14,645
14,250
Ending Stocks
2,280
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.46
3.70
3.61
3.35
3.20
Source: USDA-WAOB, my adj. for ‘16 end stocks 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
76.8
83.3
82.7
83.4
89.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
47.5
48.0
52.1
49.9
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,358
3,927
3,926
4,296
4,431
Beg. Stocks
141 92
191
197
301
Imports 72 33 24 25
Total Supply
3,570
4,052
4,140
4,518
4,757
Crush
1,734
1,873
1,886
1,895
1,940
Seed & Residual
107
146
122
152
136
Exports
1,638
1,842
1,936
2,170
2,250
Total Use
3,478
3,862
3,944
4,217
4,326
Ending Stocks
431
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
13.00
10.10
8.95
9.50
9.20
Source: USDA-WAOB, my adj. for ‘16 end stocks 3 3

4. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2017 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS 4 4

5. Corn Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS 5 5

6. Corn Stocks
Source: USDA-NASS 6 6

7. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2017 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS 7 7

8. Soybean Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS 8 8

9. Soybean Stocks
Source: USDA-NASS 9 9

10. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

12. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. U.S. Meat Trade
Million pounds
Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

14. Key factors for 2017 and beyond
Crops/Feedstuffs – BULLISH for livestock sector.
Supply – Growing and competing animal protein supplies.
Domestic Demand – Increasingly competitive environment, battle for market share.
Trade – Stabilizing factor. Strong exports and declining imports.
Producers resiliently charging ahead.

15. +8.1% (‘15 vs ‘14) +2.4% (‘16 vs ‘15) +3.2% (’17YTD vs ’16YTD)
Source: USDA/AMS. * Steve Meyer, EMI.

16. Source: Steve Meyer. Published in National Hog Farmer Magazine, July 27, 2017.

17. Source: USDA/AMS

18. Source: USDA/ERS

19. U.S. Pork Exports, Jan-Jul 2017
(Carcass Wt Basis)
Jul-17/Jun-17
Jul-17/Jul-16
Year-to-Date
Country
Percent
1,000 lbs
Mexico
-9%
10%
188,655
23%
Japan
-7%
-11%
17,130 2%
Canada
14% 1%
-2,011
-1%
South Korea
-36%
19%
76,054
32%
China (Mainland)
-45%
-57%
-100,902
-29%
Hong Kong
-38%
-39%
-16,835
-17%
Australia
-3%
7,028 6%
Philippines
-30%
59%
11,921
31%
China (Taiwan)
-26%
7,675
71%
Colombia
-10%
46%
41,480
81%
Honduras
25%
1,383 3%
Dominican Republic
-33%
20,431
47%
Guatemala
16%
33%
565
Chile
128%
27,592
174%
Other Countries
-23% 0%
15,209
Total
-13%
-4%
295,376
WASDE U.S.: 2016: 5,239 mil lbs : 5,753 (+10%) : 5,965 (+4%)
Source: USDA/ERS

20. LMIC Pork Production Quarterly Forecasts (10/2/17)
Sources: USDA/NASS; USDA/AMS Livestock Market News; Projections and Forecasts by LMIC

21. Year-over-Year Prices: Lean Hogs

22. Year-over-Year Prices: Corn

23. Year-over-Year Prices: Soy Meal

24. 2013 = +$ [-$25.60 to +$24.57]
2014 = +$ [+$13.15 to +$107.25]
2015 = +$ [-$18.40 to +$26.25]
2016 = -$ [-$35.52 to +$32.92]
2017f = +$ [-$9.57 to +$47.62]
2018f = +$ [-$13.33 to +$25.33]

25. Data Source: USDA-NASS; Forecasts by LMIC

26. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

27. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

28. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

29. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

30. Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

31. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Livestock Marketing Information Center

32. Year-over-Year Prices: Live Cattle

33. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

34. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

35. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

36. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

37. Ethanol Production
Sources: EIA, my projection for 2017

38. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

39. Current Corn Futures
3.95
3.55
Source: CME Group, 10/4/2017

40. Current Soybean Futures
9.69
9.54
Source: CME Group, 10/4/2017

41. 2017/18 Crop Margins

42. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

43. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

44. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: