1. Why the UK needs a new hub airport for London Presentation to the West London Sub Regional Transport Panel May 2013

2. The Problem Aviation is hugely important to the UK economy
Hub airport capacity aggregates passengers and delivers global connectivity
Heathrow, the UK's hub airport, is full and can't meet the UK's needs
Demand is forecast to double by 2050
"Heathrow is poorly connected to emerging markets" Heathrow spokesperson
Heathrow already accounts for 28% of people in Europe blighted by signficant disturbance from airports
A 3rd runway at Heathrow is not a long-term solution
The UK needs an alternative hub airport that provides greater connectivity without dire consequences for hundreds of thousands of people
The issue is urgent: the Uk is already losing significant trade to European hub airports

3. Aviation connectivity is key
Aviation connectivity has been and remains key to economic prosperity
Vital for trade, inward investment
A more multi-polar global economy means access to a wider range of destinations to secure that propserity
An effective hub airport is essential for that aviation connectivity…
Forecast annual traffic growth to/from Europe (%),

4. Why is a hub important?
A hub supports routes and frequencies that would otherwise not be viable
BA flights from Heathrow-New York JFK: 7½ flights per day (in 2007)
39% of passengers are transferring at Heathrow – i.e. two planes' worth
39 routes out of Heathrow have >50% transfer traffic
including Phoenix, Calgary, Mexico City, Hyderabad, Cape Town
A hub airport requires sufficient catchment area
population and economic profile  critical mass of flights
Heathrow accounts for 40% of all UK scheduled traffic…
…but 80% of all UK direct scheduled longhaul traffic

5. Heathrow is falling behind…
Heathrow lacks the runway capacity
Increased delays and very poor resilience in the face of disruption
Severely constrains number of destinations served
Every slot has an opportunity cost (>£1m)
Established longhaul routes prioritised…
…at expense of less developed routes – including to vital emerging markets
Limited access for freighter services
Hub Airport
Runways
Utilisation
Destinations 1992
Destinations 2012
London Heathrow 2
98.5%
160
156
Paris CDG 4
73.5%
154
231
Frankfurt
74.5%
192
271
Amsterdam 6
70.0%
167
258

6. Failing connectivity: UK-China
Weekly direct frequencies to Mainland China
Weekly frequencies
Paris CDG 69
Frankfurt 55
Amsterdam 44
London LHR 35
Munich 21
Helsinki 18
Destinations served 6 5 4 3 2
Shenyang
21 Frankfurt
21 Paris CDG
14 London LHR
14 Amsterdam
12 Munich
7 Helsinki
4 Frankfurt
14 London LHR
Beijing
Qingdao
4 Frankfurt
33 Paris CDG
28 Frankfurt
18 London LHR
12 Amsterdam
7 Munich
7 Helsinki
3 Frankfurt
Nanjing
4 Amsterdam
Chengdu
Shanghai
18 London LHR
Wuhan
3 Paris
Hangzhou
4 Helsinki
Chongqing
4 Amsterdam
12 Paris CDG
7 Amsterdam
3 London LHR
Xiamen
3 London LHR
Guangzhou
3 Amsterdam

7. The need for a new London hub The scale of the challenge – the Government’s Forecasts
London Heathrow demand forecasts
DfT 2011, ‘capacity unconstrained
Passengers
(mppa)
Air traffic movements / yr
Absolute maximum
capacity of Heathrow
Current throughput
at Heathrow

8. The problems with Heathow
Heathrow is unsuitable for further expansion
Heathrow is located within a densely populated area and has flight paths over London.
28 per cent of all people in Europe affected by aircraft noise are those affected by Heathrow – more than 700,000 people
After central London, Heathrow is the second major hot spot for poor air quality in London particularly with nitrogen dioxide
Runways are operating at 99% of their capacity
60% of arriving aircraft are held in stacks, causing delays
Flight times from Amsterdam and Paris CDG have increased by 50%
Adverse weather e.g. snow causes delay and misery for thousands of passengers because of lack of spare capacity
There is huge demand for long-haul flights to land in London between 4am and 6am
However, this is when aircraft noise is most intrusive

9. Meeting the Uk's Aviation Challenge
Heathrow expansion is not the answer
A 3rd runway would not deliver the capacity needed to meet long term forecasts – the level of capacity needed cannot be provided at Heathrow
The environmental impacts of further expansion at Heathrow would be unacceptable
There would still be a need to develop a long term solution

10. Meeting the Uk's Aviation Challenge
Options to be considered
A new hub airport for London – either in a new location to the east of London or at an existing airport site (Stansted)
If the necessary Government policy framework is put in place, a new airport could be delivered in a similar timescale to a third runway
A new hub airport could be located and planned to minimise environmental impacts and enable the UK to fully meet its economic potential

11. Criteria for new airport capacity
Economic
Supporting growth and regeneration; area with necessary resource capacity
Airport infrastructure
Sufficient runway/terminal capacity; optimised airport facilities
Airspace
Meets operational and safety-related requirements
Surface Access
Fast, direct road and rail access to key locations: London & Southeast, UK, Europe
Environmental
Minimises local impacts: noise, air quality, communities, wildlife/biodiversity
Deliverability
Can address planning and construction risk; value for money

12. The Mayor's emerging view
Stansted
Outer Thames
Estuary
Inner Thames Estuary

13. What happens to Heathrow?
Several options, including:
Reduced size airport
Full or partial re-development of the site
Housing/more commercial land uses
Mayor will carefully appraise the relative merits of these options
This will be covered in more detail in our response to the Airports Commission in July
Armageddon?
No!

14. What to do with Heathrow?
"Relocation"of Heathrow to where it can expand to meet the UK's hub demand and support London's growth potential.
Long timescales to plan move and transitionary arrangements (done elsewhere, cycles of capital investment)
London can pro-actively manage this change and is a job creation dynamo (35,000/year forecast)
West London economy based on more than just access to Heathrow (labour and property markets).
Rapid surface access to new airport from across London and significant improvement in PT modal shift as part of long term transport planning.
Heathrow labour force mobile (45,000 in airlines) and already commute relatively long distances.
In the medium term residential redevelopment of 1,200 ha site with c.80,000 homes would trigger 46,000 jobs aligned with skill sets of surrounding residents.

15. Potential for Strategic Infrastructure Planning
Thames Gateway has 34% of the south east's total housing capacity on only 3% of the land. One third of London's housing capacity is in the Thames Gateway.
If GDP and GVA match the Greater SE’s regional averages, this would add £12 billion to the local economy by 2020.

16. Key milestones Mayor of London A new airport for London: Part 1
The case for new capacity
A new airport for London: Part 2
The economic benefits of a new hub airport
Response to the DfT Draft Aviation Policy Framework
DfT
Airports Commission established under Sir Howard Davies
Aviation Policy Framework published
Airports Commission
Interim report to be published
[calls for evidence throughout 2013]
Final report to be published
Submission to Airports Commission
January 2011
November 2011
October 2012
November 2012
March 2013
July 2013
Late 2013
2015

17. Next Steps
2013
July: Mayor to publish submission to Airports Commission
October: further analysis of options
2014
Detailed presentation to sub regional transport panel
On-going dialogue post Airports Commission interim report Dec 2013

18. Contacts
Rhiannon Hill - Programme Manager: Guy Lavis - Exetrnal Affairs Lead: Chris Mills – Transport Planning Manager: