1. Ag Outlook SSB 2017 Spring Ag Update Meeting Eagle Grove, Iowa
Mar. 29, 2017
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
95.4
90.6
88.0
94.0
90.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
158.1
171.0
168.4
174.6
170.7
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,829
14,216
13,602
15,148
14,065
Beg. Stocks
821
1,232
1,731
1,737
2,320
Imports 36 32 67 55 50
Total Supply
14,686
15,479
15,401
16,940
16,435
Feed & Residual
5,040
5,280
5,120
5,550
5,450
Ethanol
5,124
5,200
5,224
5,400
Food, Seed, & Other
1,369
1,401
1,422
1,445
1,470
Exports
1,920
1,867
1,898
2,225
1,900
Total Use
13,454
13,748
13,664
14,620
14,220
Ending Stocks
2,215
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.46
3.70
3.61
3.40
3.50
Source: USDA-WAOB , USDA-OCE 2017 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
76.8
83.3
82.7
83.4
88.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
47.5
48.0
52.1
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,358
3,927
3,926
4,307
4,180
Beg. Stocks
141 92
191
197
435
Imports 72 33 24 25
Total Supply
3,570
4,052
4,140
4,528
4,640
Crush
1,734
1,873
1,886
1,940
1,945
Seed & Residual
107
146
122
128
135
Exports
1,638
1,842
1,936
2,025
2,125
Total Use
3,478
3,862
3,944
4,093
4,205
Ending Stocks
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
13.00
10.10
8.95
9.60
Source: USDA-WAOB , USDA-OCE 2017 3 3

4. 2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields

5. Drought Monitor
Source: National Drought Mitigation Center 5 5

6. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 6 6

7. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. U.S. Meat Trade
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

11. Change in Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Change in Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Corn Grind for Ethanol

15. Current Corn Futures
3.96
3.82
3.47
Source: CME Group, 3/28/2017

16. Current Soybean Futures
9.59
9.53
9.44
Source: CME Group, 3/28/2017

17. 2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields

18. 2017/18 Crop Margins

19. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

20. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

23. Corn Prices

24. Corn Stocks

25. Corn and Pork Production Areas

26. AVERAGE VALUES
all farmland 1941−2016
$7,183
As of
Nov 16
-5.9%

27. % Change in Nominal Iowa Farmland Values 1942-2016

28. Land Values by County, 2016

29. Percent Changes in Land Values from Nov 2015

30. Farmland supply tends to be tighter in down years

31. Iowa Farmland Purchases by Buyer Types 1989-2016

32. A replay of 1920s or 1980s farm crisis?
Source: USDA-ERS, Ag DM C2-70,
Zhang and Beek (2016)
Farm Policy Journal

33. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: