Spatial Changes in Public School Enrollments in Wisconsin Mitch Collins

Research Project How do demographic variables affect the recent changes in public school enrollment in Wisconsin? What are the different patterns for rural, suburban, and urban school districts if any? – How do the changes differ from region to region in the state?

Defining a School District “Geographic entities within which state, county, or local officials provide public educational services for the area’s residents.” –US Census Represent one or more communities Symbol and identity of the area it encompasses Pride of citizens Three different types in Wisconsin 1.Elementary 2.Secondary 3.Unified Source: ESRI & US Census

Enrollment History Steady decline since 1997 Aging of baby boomers Declining Birth Rates Location Race/Ethnicity Housing Source: 2000 & 2010 CensusPopulation pyramids by Mitch Collins Eau Claire Area School District 2000 & 2010 Age Structure

Overall statewide decline in birth rates Source: Wisconsin Department of Health Services

Birth Counts Comparison of birth counts at the municipal level City of Eau Claire is increasing City of Mequon & Village of Thiensville are declining Source: Wisconsin Department of Health Services

Concerns Enrollment decline = decline in resources $$$ Common trend for rural schools New concept for some suburban schools Administrative cohesiveness Image source: Chicago Tribune website

Data Collection School enrollment by year ( ) Wisconsin Department of Instruction Birth Rate per county WI Department of Health Services Median Age 2010 Census & ACS Percent Hispanic 2010 Census Property Values ACS & National Center of Education Statistics Shapefile of school district boundaries (Unified & Secondary) 2010 Census TIGER/Line Shapefile School NameEnrollment Enrollment Osseo-Fairchild Cadott Community Boyceville Community Dodgeland Lake Geneva-Genoa City Union Oostburg Crivitz Florence Cedar Grove-Belgium Darlington Community Tomorrow River Northern Ozaukee Source: Wisconsin Department of Instruction School NameProperty Values Arrowhead Union (Hartland)356,700 Mequon-Thiensville350,200 Kettle Moraine (Wales)342,200 Whitefish Bay339,300 Washington326,900 Waunakee Community310,600 Middleton-Cross Plains304,100 Shorewood297,300 Williams Bay294,900 Elmbrook290,700 Gibraltar Area289,500 Mukwonago273,400 Cedarburg269,700 Hudson268,600 Source: ACS & NCES

Methods Calculate percent change from , , and Add selected population variables and manipulate them in ArcMap to produce maps Use Areal Interpolation tool in ArcMap to get percent Hispanic per school district Run correlation matrix in SPSS between the variables and percent change Divide school districts into 3 categories: Urban, Suburban, & Rural NCES criteria School NameProperty Values Arrowhead Union (Hartland)356,700 Mequon-Thiensville350,200 Kettle Moraine (Wales)342,200 Whitefish Bay339,300 Washington326,900 Waunakee Community310,600 Middleton-Cross Plains304,100 Shorewood297,300 Williams Bay294,900 Elmbrook290,700 Gibraltar Area289,500 Mukwonago273,400 Cedarburg269,700 Hudson268,600 Source: ACS & NCES

Urban, Suburban, and Rural Schools Urban: district boundary must encompass a population greater than 50,000 Suburban: district adjoining an urban district or within a major metropolitan area (greater than 100,000) Rural: small populations (less than 10,000) or greater than 25 miles from an urbanized area NCES criteria Source: National Center for Education Statistics and ESRI

Percent Change Most of the decline in rural school districts Most suburban are stable or increasing Urban – Half increasing half decreasing Source: Wisconsin Department of Instruction & ESRI

Median Age per School District Majority districts of older median ages are rural, larger in area, and in the north Few exceptions in central and south Low negative correlation with percent decline (-0.452) Source: 2010 Census & ACS

Source: 2010 Census & ESRI Percent Hispanic per School District Higher percentages in southeast metro areas Rural schools with higher percent Hispanic are increasing Arcadia Abbotsford

Property Values per School District Low positive correlation between property values and percent increase (0.454) As property values increase, enrollment is likely to increase

Trends in Rural Schools 78.7% of rural school districts are declining – Less affluent – Higher median age – Less diversity (mostly white) Increasing rural schools – Close or on outskirts of outer suburbs More affluent – Higher percent Hispanic

Urban vs. Suburban Urban schools are split in enrollment change – Milwaukee = huge decline – Landlocked Suburban school districts continue to grow Healthy growth in Madison and Green Bay suburbs Most growth in St. Croix County – Close proximity to Minneapolis/St. Paul Metropolitan area Some are seeing a decline – 4 Milwaukee suburbs greater than 10% Loss High property values and per capita income No room to grow School NamePercent Change ( ) Kenosha17.6% Madison Metropolitan5.8% Waukesha4.9% Appleton Area4.3% Green Bay Area3.4% West Allis1.7% Janesville-1.6% Eau Claire Area-4.0% Racine-5.3% Oshkosh Area-5.5% La Crosse-13.7% Milwaukee-21.8%

Conclusion Wide range of broad demographic variables School administrations should pay close attention to data and trends Plan for future years Communicate Accomplish number one goal- student success