Scottish National Accounts Project (SNAP) Andrew Mortimer SNAP team

Presentation outline Background to the Scottish National Accounts Project (SNAP) New quarterly indicators –Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HHFCE) –GDP(I) –Basic price to Market price adjustment (Net Product taxes) –Quarterly manufactured exports The Quarterly Supply-Use (QSU) framework –Brief overview of the framework Consultation

Why SNAP? (1) Improve consistency between existing statistics –Quarterly GDP –GERS –Global Connections –Index of Manufactured Exports –Input-Output (Supply & use)

Supply & Use tables an ideal framework to enforce consistency between disparate data sources But... Calendar year only; Heavily lagged

Why SNAP (2) Improve quality (triangulation)

Why SNAP (3) Meet users’ needs –Improve the range of economic statistics Significant gaps in our understanding of the Scottish economy (e.g. final demand markets) Existing measures useful but requires expansion (SESCG views / Council of economic advisers) –Cash value GDP, –accelerate production of input-output tables –Price indices –GERS review acted as a catalyst Primary data supplemented by Model-based estimates

SNAP Project Overview In summary: Use a range of data sources and the quarterly UK National Accounts to produce a range of consistent quarterly economic indicators for Scotland. Building on the annual Input-Output framework for Scotland to produce more up to date estimates of income, expenditure and production GDP in value terms;

New indicators (income and expenditure) Statistics in development (not national statistics) –Household Final Consumption Expenditure for Scotland (this combines EFS data with National Accounts HHFCE data to proxy HHFCE for Scotland; –Gross Disposable Household Income; –Cash value estimates of manufacturing exports on a quarterly basis (consistent with the Index of Manufactured Exports series); –Quarterly GDP figures (income based) in current prices. These figures are quarterly, but benchmarked to the annual Regional Accounts GVA estimates; –various analyses of the Scottish elements of UK economic statistics are also provided on the SNAP website if used as a component part of the SNAP analysis. Currently in development are new indicators for: –Stocks and inventories –General Government Final Consumption Expenditure –Tourist Expenditure

Quarterly Supply-Use (QSU) system Evolving into the core of SNAP; Allows discrepancies to be identified between disparate datasets (output/income/expenditure); The key tool to ensure consistency and quality of new indicators (and reduce scale of revisions); Recent developments As of yesterday, the system now incorporates - and balances - the new indicators whilst enforcing cell-by- cell consistency with the published annual Input- Output publication; A great deal more work to do (particularly on the balancing front); Aiming for release of first-draft balanced estimates by end-year