1. Quarterly GDP compilation at NBS
By Roger Jullion (Statistics Canada)
OECD/NBS Workshop on National Accounts
Haikou, China
December 2009

2. Overview of presentation
Background of Statistics Canada project
Progress to date:
Production based GDP
Expenditure based GDP
Reconciling quarterly GDP estimates
Seasonal adjustment and benchmarking
Looking ahead
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
27/03/2017

3. Background of Statistics Canada project
Statistical Information Management Program (SIMP II)
Seven year project, began in 2006
Three sub-projects
Environment statistics
Social Statistics
Economic Statistics
Business survey component
National accounts component
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
27/03/2017

4. Background of Statistics Canada project
National accounts component (objectives)
Produce discrete quarterly seasonally adjusted production-based GDP estimates in both current and constant prices and, on a trial basis, quarterly discrete expenditure-based GDP estimates in both current and constant prices
Reconcile annual and quarterly expenditure-based and production-based GDP such that NBS would eventually be able to publish expenditure-based GDP together with their official production-based GDP estimates
Build analytical capacity for future improvements of the overall quality of the GDP estimates, both production and expenditure-based.
Improve the overall quality of the GDP estimates through improvements to methodologies and price deflation
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
27/03/2017

5. Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
Progress to date
We have been working with NBS national accountants for three years
Four visits to NBS by Statistics Canada and one visit to STC by NBS officials
NBS officials will be visiting Canada again this coming spring
We have discussed our respective sources and methods and strategies for analyzing and balancing the accounts
Suggested data coherence tools and data confrontation practices including supply use analysis
Discussed revision policy, benchmarking and seasonal adjustment
Workshop to enhance communication with data suppliers
Three years remaining in the SIMP II project
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
27/03/2017

6. Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
Progress to date
Production-based GDP
Quarterly discrete estimates by industry have been developed
A combination of quarterly indicators and the subtraction method have been used to derive the quarterly data
Quarterly data have been benchmarked to the annual value added estimates and subsequently seasonally adjusted using X12ARIMA
Nominal and price data are being analyzed by industry
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
27/03/2017

7. Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
Progress to date
Production-based GDP
Key activities planned over the next three months:
Re-estimate the ‘industry’ sub-component at the level of 39 industries above the cut-off
Seasonally adjust the industry sub-sector at the 39 industry groups and then aggregate
Disaggregate the ‘Others’ industry grouping into the 9 industry sub-sectors using suggested indicators as discussed at our September STC/NBS meeting.
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
27/03/2017

8. Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
Progress to date
Expenditure-based GDP
NBS has estimated internal trial-based quarterly expenditure-based GDP
We have discussed improvements to the compilation methods and how the expenditure-based data could be reconciled or compared with the higher quality production-based estimates
Where data gaps exist in the estimation of production-based GDP, some of the consumption indicators could be used
Household consumption uses the rural and urban household expenditure surveys
Rents, financial services compiled in conjunction with production-based GDP estimates
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
27/03/2017

9. Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
Progress to date
Expenditure-based GDP
STC suggested that the quarterly consumption estimates be estimated at a more detail level
This would allow for better analysis and more accurate constant price estimates. It would also allow for other data to replace or be compared to the household survey data e.g. motor vehicle sales, services spending
Government current spending
Budget vs non-budgetary
Capital vs current
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
27/03/2017

10. Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
Progress to date
Gross fixed capital formation
Construction output vs capital spending on construction
Supply use analysis for M&E
Change in inventories
Price deflators
Supply use analysis
Exports and Imports
Exchange rate adjustments
Unit values vs Producer Price Indexes
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
27/03/2017

11. Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
Progress to date
Reconciliation of production-based with expenditure-based GDP estimates
Quarterly and annual GDP comparison tables have been prepared
Inconsistencies between the datasets have been identified
Data confrontation and data coherence techniques have been discussed
Alternative compilation methods have been introduced which are narrowing the discrepancies
Additional issues were identified at the workshop held with national accounts data suppliers
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
27/03/2017

12. Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
Progress to date
We have discussed the use of supply use analysis for certain commodities such as vehicles and M&E
Improvements to price deflators as well as the level at which deflation is carried out has been discussed and NBS is looking at alternative approaches
Comparisons of implicit prices between production-based and expenditure-based GDP have been prepared such that constant price discrepancies can be decorticated between nominal values and prices
NBS has made considerable progress on implementing benchmarking and seasonal adjustment techniques
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
27/03/2017

13. Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
Looking ahead
Publishing seasonally adjusted GDP is a priority for NBS
While production-based GDP estimates are the priority, we are working in parallel on improving the quarterly and annual expenditure-based estimates and the reconciliation of the two sets of estimates
We are working with NBS on improving the quarterly discrete GDP estimates, using all available survey and administrative information
We are discussing various data validation and data coherence techniques that we use at Statistics Canada to compile quarterly national accounts
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
27/03/2017

14. Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
Looking ahead
We are working via the Statistics Canada/NBS SIMP II business survey and household data improvement projects to ensure that national accounts needs and key data gaps are addressed
While we are recommending that China’s GDP estimates should be compiled at a more detail level we recognize the resource constraints within the national accounts group
Compiling and publishing both production-based and expenditure-based GDP quarterly ensures data coherence while meeting policy and analytical requirements
We are discussing revisions and revisions policies (timeliness and data quality tradeoffs)
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
27/03/2017