Basic Demography

 Describe global population distribution  Examine causes and consequences of population change  To understand the Malthusian argument  To describe demographic and economic characteristics of a population  To understand the Demographic Transition  To describe the baby boom  Understanding economic migration

 World population growth is slowing  Still adding ca. 80 million per year  Most in developing countries  Some countries are losing population (Russia, E. Europe, coming in Japan)  Forces affecting population change ∆P = BR – DR + I – O or ∆P = NGR +NMR

 Assumed that human populations would continue to grow geometrically  And assumed that food production would grow arithmetically, due to diminishing marginal returns (or less than arithmetically) Inputs Output arithmetic Diminishing returns

Failed to see impact of Industrial Revolution on Food production Failed to see the opening of new lands (especially in the new world) Failed to anticipate falling fertility rates

 Based on West European & N. Am. History

 Stage 1: Preindustrial Society – high and unstable birth & death rates, population growth rate slow, importance of children, low life expectancy  Stage 2: Early Industrial Society - high birth rates, falling death rate, high population growth  Stage 3: Late Industrial Society – low death rate, falling birth rate, high population growth  Stage 4: Post Industrial Society – low birth and death rates, low population growth

 Stage 1 – Poor Health Care  Stage 2 – Lower infant mortality rates with better diet and improvements in health care (Figure 3.18)  Stage 3 – similar to Stage 2  Stage 4 – Few deaths from infectious diseases, more from social malaise (Figures 3.21 and 3.22). Some countries below ZPG

 Fertility is socially constructed, not taken for granted  Population does not grow uncontrollably, but rather stabilizes at a slow growth rate as birth and death rates fall  However, absolute population growth is still large (ca. 80 million per annum) due to the large base (current 6+ billion)  Total future population depends on fertility rate trends in less developed regions (Figure 3.28)

 Based on Western societies (Europe, North America, Japan)  Not inevitable that there will be a fall in fertility rates in less developed countries  Even with dramatically lowered fertility rates  We cannot predict the length of time it will take these countries to move from Stages 2 and 3 to Stage 4 (if they do)