1 NCEP’s Climate Forecast System as a National Model “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” 32 nd Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop October 22, 2007 Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction

2 Overview Recent Climate Prediction Advancements at NCEP Ongoing Strategic Priorities Challenges Building Update

3 Air Quality WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model Satellites 99.9% Regional NAM WRF NMM North American Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Global Forecast System Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT For eca st Severe Weather Rapid Update for Aviation Climate CFS 1.7B Obs/Day Short-Range Ensemble Forecast NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite MOM3 NOAH Land Surface Model Coupled Global Data Assimilation Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III NAM/CMAQ

4 U.S. Seasonal Temperature - Skill 0.5 Month Lead – 4 Year Running Average vs. GPRA Goal Climate Forecast System: First dynamic operational climate forecast model implemented August 2004 Climate Test Bed: established in 2005and focused on improving the Climate Forecast System and related seasonal forecast products Unprecedented increases in the skill of CPC official seasonal outlooks: (20% or more; O’Lenic et al. 2007) due in part to CFS and to CTB activities (e.g. consolidation tool)

5 Ongoing Strategic Priorities Accelerate improvements in the CFS through the R2O & “O2R” paradigm Enhance NCEP’s role in the transition process Be a partner within the multi model ensemble enterprise

6 “Operations to Research (O2R)” Goal –To accelerate improvements in the NCEP Climate Forecast System by providing the Climate Forecast System (CFS) to the broad research community Deliverables –CFS, data, and support services (e.g. helpdesk facility) to user community –Annual workshop on CFS Mechanism –Managed operational program between NCEP, Climate Program Office (CPO), and Climate Test Bed (CTB) Benefits –Provides support for research with CFS outside NCEP (ARCs, NSF, etc) –Maximizes opportunities for community participation To Accelerate R2O; Must Support “O2R”

7 “Operations to Research (O2R)” NCEP will provide Operational models (CFS, GFS) and data (e.g. reforecasts, reanalysis) Helpdesk facilities, training for O2R staff, web services Points of contact for collaboration Support for CTB Seminar Series CPO will provide Support for helpdesk, training, points of contact, web services Grants Program (AOs) CTB will provide Transition Infrastructure for pulling in the Research (R2O) Links between Test beds (e.g. CTB and HTB) GAPS Computing support for dissemination of models and data Resources for competitive transition activities

8 Challenges with Multi-Model (MME) System Lack of a National Strategy on MME, including insufficient (US) computer resources for generating hindcast data sets Lack of a concept of operations –MOUs with partners (International and US) for exchanges of operational models and real time forecast data CTB resource limitations –Insufficient computer resources to run hindcasts for other organizations –Skill assessments –Post-processing, calibration, consolidation, and preparation for operations

9 268,762 RSF; includes 800+ Feds, contractors and visiting scientists 5 NCEP Centers NESDIS research and satellite services OAR Air Resources Laboratory 40 spaces for visiting scientists NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction at the UMD Research Park (M-Square) Date Construction StartMay 9, 2007 Move StartDec 2008 Move CompleteJuly 2009 Construction Schedule

10 NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Recent Activities Construction photographs – October 2, 2007

11 NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction located at University of MD M 2 Research Park NORTH

12 Summary CFS and CTB advancing nicely NCEP’s role in R2O implies greater support for O2R. (Research and transition activities need to build off the operational infrastructure.) New NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction should help facilitate

13 Appendix

14 EMC NCO R&D Operations Delivery Criteria Transition from Research to Operations Requirements EMC NCEP’s Role in the Model Transition Process OPS Life cycle Support Service Centers NOAA Research Concept of Operations Service Centers Test Beds JCSDA CTB DTC JHT User Observation System Launch List – Model Implementation Process Field Offices Effort EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations Other Agencies Universities International Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

15 NCEPNCEP R2O 1. Large “volume” of R&D, funded through AOs, Agency Labs… 2. Smaller set of R&D products suitable for operations. 3. Systematic transition steps Research-to-Operations (R2O). Deliver skill-optimized forecast products founded on CTB-based innovation and& customer feedback; Bring in customer requests 4. Systematic transition steps Operations-to-Applications (O2A). 5. Delivery of products to the diverse community and customer feedback Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process 2 NCEP is uniquely positioned to provide an operational infra- structure for the transition processes User Community R&D Community OPERATIONS 1 3 EMC CFS 5 4 O2A CTBCPCCTBCPC CTB role: facilitate transitions for the CPC specific product range (6-10 day, week 2, monthly, seasonal) O2R R2O