Demography- the study of human populations and population trends. Chapter 7 The Human Population

The Environmental Implications of China’s Growing Population One Child Policy

The Environmental Implications of China’s Growing Population Miniature earth video

The People Paradox Video World in the Balance The People Paradox Video

World Population Carrying Capacity video

World population count Every 5 days, the human population increases by roughly 1 million lives! Until a few hundred years ago the population was stable. Why did it change? Population explosion only recently…~400 years ago…1600…decrease in death rates, but no real change in birth rates Chapter 6…limiting factors prevent permanent exponential growth…do we have those as the almighty humans?

Scientists Disagree on Earth’s Carrying Capacity Theoretical models of food supply and population size. Thomas Malthus (1798) thought the human population could exceed Earth’s carrying capacity. How can we increase food supply suddenly? Different opinions all around… Thomas Malthus discusses war, famine, disease How many people have heard # about oil reserves? Always changing because of (tech)…same scenario here Some scientists say there is a limit for us (top right) and anything past intersection is a big problem Others focus on technology constantly increasing (bottom right) Can we expand our carrying capacity?

Factors that Drive Human Population Growth Net Migration Changes in Population Size Fertility Life Expectancy Age Structure Look at data like birth/death rates, migrations rates, census data

Changes in Population Size 1. Net migration rate- the difference between immigration and emigration in a give year per 1,000 people in the country. Input – output X 1,000 total pop Remember…earth is a system…regions/countries can be systems…see people as inputs and outputs Immigration goes IN country Emigration moves AWAY More input than output…(increase)…more output than input…(decrease)

Net Migration Rate Country X has 50,000,000 people. In a particular year, the country received 250,000 immigrants (in-migrants) and lost 55,000 emigrants (out-migrants). What is the net migration rate? Country Y has 45,000,000 people. In a particular year, the country received 35,000 immigrants and lost 45,000 emigrants. What is the net migration rate? Country Z has 37,000 people. In a particular year, the country received 1,000 immigrants and lost 1,000 emigrants. What is the net migration rate?

Changes in Population Size 2. Birth and Death rates Crude Birth Rate (CBR) – the number of births per 1,000 individuals per year. Crude death rates (CDR) – the number of deaths per 1,000 individuals per year. Global population growth rate = [CBR-CDR] X 100 or [CBR-CDR] 1000 10 **We do not factor migration for global population because people are not leaving the Earth.

Global Population Growth Rate Country X has 20 births and 8 deaths per 1,000 people. What is the growth rate solely based on CBR and CDR? Country Y has 300 births and 150 deaths per 1,000 people. What is the growth rate solely based on CBR and CDR? Country Z has 37,000 people. Per 1,000 people, 12 are born and 14 die. What is the annual growth rate based on CBR and CDR alone?

Changes in Population Size Nation Population growth rate % = [(CBR + Immigration) – (CDR + Emigration)] X 100 original population We can say that a population will double in a certain number of years if the growth rate remains constant. The Rule of 70 is an approximation of how long it will take for a population to double its size (or halve its size) given the current growth rate Doubling time = 70 . (in years) Growth rate% Rule of 70 video

Changes in Population Size Find the national population growth rate of country X, Y, and Z given information on previous slides Find the doubling time of countries X, Y, and Z given the national growth rate you previously determine.

Changes in Population Size Better understanding of why we cannot pin down what will exactly happen to population…. Graph we made on day 2….high estimates assume we keep on keeping on….low assume that TFR = or is less than RLF

3. Fertility Total fertility rate (TFR)- an estimate of the average number of children that each woman in a population will bear. It is a measure of births per woman. Replacement level fertility- the total fertility rate required to offset the average number of deaths in a population and for the current population size to remain stable. Developed countries - typically stable, RLF = 2.1 Why? Developing countries – RLF = greater than 2.1 When will a country experience a decease in population? When will a country experience an increase in population? TFR is from fertility to menopause…bo out of 1000 people…is per woman US 2008 TFR was 2.8 RLF ideally would be 2—why (replaces both parents), but is actually higher …why( not all babies survive to adulthood) Developed 2.1, developing higher Developed used to be first-world or first rate countries…developing used to be third world or third rate countries…PC modernized terms - Applies to where they are in demographic transition

4. Life Expectancy Life expectancy - the average number of years that an infant born in a particular year in a particular country can be expected to live, given the current average life span and death rate of that country. A high life expectancy equals: Reported in three ways: Health care, nutrition, lack of pollutants tends to have a + impact on life expectancy 3 different measurements Overall Males only Females only 2011 (most recent data) is 78.7 all, 76.3 ♂, 81.1 ♀ for US

4. Life Expectancy ♂ 75 ♀ 81 ♂ 67 ♀ 70 2011 data: Overall – 79 years Health care, nutrition, lack of pollutants tends to have a + impact on life expectancy 3 different measurements Overall Males only Females only 2008 data ♂ 67 ♀ 70 2011 data: Overall – 79 years ♂ 76.3 ♀ 81.1

4. Life Expectancy Infant mortality rate - the number of deaths of children under 1 year of age per 1,000 live births. Child mortality rate - the number of deaths of children under age 5 per 1,000 live births. If a country has a high life expectancy and a low infant mortality rate what can you predict? Low life expectancy and a high infant mortality rate what can you predict? If life expectancy is high and mortality rate is low, can predict what? (good health care, good food, clean water, sanitation, moderate pollution) If life expectancy is low and mortality is high, can predict what? (opposite: poor health care or sanitation, dirty water, lack of food, lots of pollution and env hazards) Prenatal care is huge predictor….Liberia 99 and Bolivia 50 Average is average….6.6 in US…stratify that (13.6 african america,s 81 native americans 5.8 caucasiains…SES (environmental justice) We’re not the lowest…Sweden 2.5 and France 3.6…

Aging and Disease Elderly population versus younger population Disease is a regulator of human populations. Heart Disease is #1. Infectious diseases are #2 AIDS How are the # of AIDS related deaths improving? The reality of Zimbabwe video Our CDR is higher than Mexico’s because of the Baby Boomers (13% pop 65+)…versus Mexico (6%) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7wRIn0CpaU AIDS top problem because it “targets” 15-49…reproductive years….also working years….many AIDS orphans Lesotho (s. Africa) 23% adult population HIV+, life expectancy went from 63 (1995) to 40 (2009) Peak AIDS year 2005, getting better…how? (education!)

5. Age Structure Age structure diagrams (population pyramids)- visual representations of age structure within a country for males and females. Describes how its members are distributed across age ranges, usually in 5-yesr increments. Predict speed of population increase and future size

5. Age Structure Countries can be grouped into 3 broad categories: 1. Pyramid = widest at the bottom, smallest at the top. More younger people than old. Typical of a developing country. A rapidly growing population. Population momentum – demonstrates that it takes time for actions that attempt to reduce births to catch up with a growing population.

5. Age Structure Countries can be grouped into 3 broad categories: 1. Column = Little difference between # of individuals in young age groups verse old age groups. Have slow population growth or no growth at all. Typical of developed countries. Developing countries that have recently lowered their growth rates should begin to see this pattern within the next 10-20 years.

5. Age Structure Countries can be grouped into 3 broad categories: 1. Inverted Pyramid = More older people than younger people. TFR below 2.1 Decreasing # of females within each younger age group. Typical of developed countries and population will continue to shrink over time. China is in the early stages of showing this inverted pyramid. 5 year increments…♂ and ♀ shown separately Total area of all bars would be total population size What do you notice about top right (mostly youth)—population pyramid (due to shape)…typical of developing countries What will happen to population? (grow…as youth gets older, they will have babies!!) Population control methods are not instantaneously effective –population momentum US more of a column shape …slower population growth (perhaps zero?)…developed countries doing population control have 10-15 year lag Diamond shape (Germany) more older people than reproductive young people….population will continue to shrink

The Demographic Transition video The theory of the demographic transition is the theory that as a country moves from a subsistence economy to industrialization and increased affluence, it undergoes a predictable shift in population growth. There are 4 phases: 1. Pre-industrial 2. Industrialization 3. Stabilization - Birth rates slow down 4. Population stops growing. Before 1600, global avg growth rate was <.1…700 year doubling time …tech/sanitation, growth rate increase drastically…but finally on slowing trend…many think we’ll peak at 2100 and never double again (phew!) Subsistence—only able to provide for self Comes from early 1900s Many African Asian countries (like China and India) are in stage 2 US/Canada/Australia Stage 3 Italy Stage 4 Not all nations follow this pattern directly—Nicaragua is really in phase 1 or 2, but pop seems like 4…china has lower growth rate than US, but behind us in terms of phases

The Stages of the Demographic Transition Phase 1: Slow population growth because there are high birth rates and high death rates which offset each other. Pre-industrialization Life expectancy? Infant mortality rate? Why are children considered an asset? Before modernization, short expectancy (dangerous work), high IMR (disease no health care, poor sanitation), more kids bc they won’t lie…children are economic asset!!!! (do jobs like collect materials, care for siblings, tend to parents as they get old)…where we were before IR….just about every country is past phase 1….but AIDS has affected these #....some 2s have pushed back to a 1.

The Stages of the Demographic Transition Phase 2: Rapid population growth because birth rates remain high but death rates decline due to better sanitation, clean drinking water, increased access to food and goods, and access to health care. State of imbalance Developing countries Industrialization Life expectancy? Infant mortality rate? TFR? Include countries such as: 2. Decrease death, birth high (high pop growth)…modernizes w/ sanitation, clean water, food and goods, health care (vaccinations)…CBR does not decline…takes 1+ generation to notice the change –population momentum…also takes time to implement edu and birth control measures…imbalance…we were in this in early 1900s THIS IS WHERE EARTH IS! Want to get through it as fast as possible

The Stages of the Demographic Transition Phase 3: Stable population growth as the economy and educational system improves and as family income increases people have fewer children. Birth rates begin to decrease. Death rates decrease. Stabilization How are children viewed? Many developed countries. Include countries such as: 3. Stable growth…increase income, decrease children…dec CBR…US, canada…more specialized economy…kids are not an economic LIABILITY!! More money, more money spent on school…more aailable birth control delay time to first pregnancy and smaller family size - cultural, societal, religious norms also important

Wealthier nations tend to have lower total fertility rates

The Stages of the Demographic Transition Phase 4: Declining population growth because the relatively high level of affluence and economic development encourage women to delay having children. Birth rates well below death rates. More old, fewer young. Population usually stops growing. Problematic? Solution? Countries such as: 4. Japan, UK, Germany, Russia, Itali…CBR < CDR…fewer young, more old…social and economicl factors….greater tax burden on eag wage earner (think of our SS tax issues)…may want immigration as additional workers….Japan is actually encouraging more children ($150/month bonus per kid…only 1800 a year…here it costs ~15k year…not much of an incentive)

Family Planning Women – more education and working = delaying/having less children. Treated as equals with their partner. More access to birth control. Practice Family planning- the regulation of the number or spacing of offspring through the use of birth control. Link between education/affluence for females and total number of children…delay having children because of school and work

Family Planning posters Kenya and Thailand are two “success” stories Kenya: 1980s—TFR was 8; 1990s—TFR was 4 Thailand: dropped growth rate from within the first 15 years from 3.2% to 1.6% - 0.6% today Only put success in quote because many people think population control/family planning is wrong - Kenya’s program began in the 70s and focused on problems that result from overpopulation…also promoted condom use Thailand video

The 12 Most Populous Countries in the World Population is a HUGE factor….but just as important is how much each person uses…most of the populated nations are developing…generally hose that are developing have higher populations, but use less (demo transition 411); as they become more wealthy, they have a smaller/decreasing population, but use more…one person in a devloped nation may use 2-10x more resources than in a developing nation….

Ecological Footprints Affluence - having a lot of wealth such as money, goods, or property. Wealthy countryies need 6.4ha per person, developing need 1ha Look at us compared to global average (oops)…look at population and affluence combined…our footpint is about equal to China…we have ¼ of the population, but use about 4x as much. U.S. has more than 5 times the environmental impact of a person living in China and 18 times that of a person living in Haiti.

The IPAT Equation A conceptual representation used to estimate the impact of human lifestyles on Earth we can use the IPAT equation: Impact = Population X Affluence X Technology Impact – Overall environmental effect Population – more people, larger impact on the environment. Affluence – the more affluent a person or society, the higher the environmental impact Technology - can either degrade or create solutions to minimize our impact. Barry Commoner, Paul Erlich, John Joldren Conceptual representation…not a real math calculation I = impact…effect on environment of thethree factors combined P = population…direct relationship with impact…2 heads consume more than 1 Affluence is not a simple relationship…one developed person can have the impact of 2-3 developing people…look at typical US family (right) with Bangladesh family (leftO Technology is even more complicated…either degrades env further or improves env impack….destroyed ozone hole...fixed ozone hole….cars are bad for planet…made hybrid cars to reduce impact Some use “destructive technology” to focus on negatives

3 Impacts on the environment 1. Local – more impact from developing nations because produce locally. Benefit? Con? 2 common overused resources: Land/agriculture Impacts: Woody biomass Local versus global impacts…if you do things locally, you impact env locally….if you import, you impact global Developing nations more local impacts…developed more global impacts….huge chunk of footprint for US comes from foss fuel use….China went from local demands (cotton, hemp, flax, wood), to global ones Ivory coast exports all of its fossil fues…so small local impact, HUGE global impact Local Most consumables in developing produced locally…overuse of local resources and environmental degradation…deforestation on Haiti Land and woody biomass are ones typically overused…need to cut down forests or natural grasslands to make room for “good” land or for the trees it has Increase yield with fertilization, irrigation, harvest time….local environmental effects Global Land to agriculture dec CO2 taken up by plants…alters carbon cycle; more fertilizers made from fossil fuels…more greenhouse gases Developed people use more glbal resources…think of cell phone (showed before)…exotic fruit, coffee, fertilizer, water for lawns But, developed have the benefit of technology Urban ½ peple worldwide live in cities Defined by more than 386 people per square kilometer/1000 people per square mile NYC: most populated city in world (27kppl/sq mile)….Mumbai (India): most in world (60kppl/sq mile) 75+% in developed live in urban…expected to increase

3 Impacts on the environment 2. Global – more impact from developed nations. Consumption of imported goods Faster resource depletion because of affluence Local versus global impacts…if you do things locally, you impact env locally….if you import, you impact global Developing nations more local impacts…developed more global impacts….huge chunk of footprint for US comes from foss fuel use….China went from local demands (cotton, hemp, flax, wood), to global ones Ivory coast exports all of its fossil fues…so small local impact, HUGE global impact Local Most consumables in developing produced locally…overuse of local resources and environmental degradation…deforestation on Haiti Land and woody biomass are ones typically overused…need to cut down forests or natural grasslands to make room for “good” land or for the trees it has Increase yield with fertilization, irrigation, harvest time….local environmental effects Global Land to agriculture dec CO2 taken up by plants…alters carbon cycle; more fertilizers made from fossil fuels…more greenhouse gases Developed people use more glbal resources…think of cell phone (showed before)…exotic fruit, coffee, fertilizer, water for lawns But, developed have the benefit of technology Urban ½ peple worldwide live in cities Defined by more than 386 people per square kilometer/1000 people per square mile NYC: most populated city in world (27kppl/sq mile)….Mumbai (India): most in world (60kppl/sq mile) 75+% in developed live in urban…expected to increase

3 Impacts on the environment 3. Urban An urban area is an area that contains more than 386 people per square kilometer or 1000 people per square mile. 75% of people in developed and 44% of people in developing nations. Local versus global impacts…if you do things locally, you impact env locally….if you import, you impact global Developing nations more local impacts…developed more global impacts….huge chunk of footprint for US comes from foss fuel use….China went from local demands (cotton, hemp, flax, wood), to global ones Ivory coast exports all of its fossil fues…so small local impact, HUGE global impact Local Most consumables in developing produced locally…overuse of local resources and environmental degradation…deforestation on Haiti Land and woody biomass are ones typically overused…need to cut down forests or natural grasslands to make room for “good” land or for the trees it has Increase yield with fertilization, irrigation, harvest time….local environmental effects Global Land to agriculture dec CO2 taken up by plants…alters carbon cycle; more fertilizers made from fossil fuels…more greenhouse gases Developed people use more glbal resources…think of cell phone (showed before)…exotic fruit, coffee, fertilizer, water for lawns But, developed have the benefit of technology Urban ½ peple worldwide live in cities Defined by more than 386 people per square kilometer/1000 people per square mile NYC: most populated city in world (27kppl/sq mile)….Mumbai (India): most in world (60kppl/sq mile) 75+% in developed live in urban…expected to increase

Urban living has env challenges…need city planning to handles this Public transportation, water, sewer esp for expansion… Urban: more solid waste, pollution, CO2….but smaller per capita footprints (public transportation…everything needed nearby…none of the 15 minute drive to anything in suburbia) Affluent urban area okay….poor urban not so much…urbanization that happens too fast is a big problem..no proper infrastructure to support growth…temporary shelters instead of real housing…1 billion people live in squatter settlements worldwide

Gender Equity and Population Control in Kerala