NAPM Regional Economic Update January 15, 2013 Grant D. Forsyth, Ph.D. Chief Economist

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Presentation transcript:

NAPM Regional Economic Update January 15, 2013 Grant D. Forsyth, Ph.D. Chief Economist

The Regional Economy: Looking for Green Shoots Your are here..

U.S. GDP Growth Forecasts to 2017 Source: IMF, Global Insight, Economy.com, FOMC, Bloomberg, Blue Chip, Wall Street Journal, WA Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors, The Economist, and author’s calculations.

Unemployment Rates, Source: BLS and author’s calculations.

U.S. Unemployment Rates by Cohort, 2012 Source: BLS and author’s calculations.

Non-Farm Employment Growth, Source: BLS and author’s calculations.

Non-Farm Employment Growth Forecast, 2013

Population Growth, Source: U.S. Census, OFM, and author’s calculations.

Population Growth Forecast, 2013

Spokane Taxable Sales Growth, Source: WA DOR and author’s calculations.

Taxable Sales Growth Forecast, 2013

Spokane Real Median Household Income and Spending, Source: OFM, BEA, and author’s calculations. +9% -2% -20% -9%

Existing Home Price Growth, Source: FHFA and author’s calculations.

Existing Home Price Growth Forecast, 2013

Spokane+Kootenai Bank Performance, 2Q Q 2012 Source: FDIC.

Spokane+Kootenai Growth in Residential Units Permitted, Source: Construction Monitor and author’s calculations.

Top 20 Spokane-Area Construction Projects, Journal of Business, 2012 Source: Journal of Business and author’s calculations.

Monthly Leading Indicator, Source: WA ESD, Economagic.com, Census, and author’s calculations.

Washington Per Capita Federal Procurement Dependency Relative to U.S., 2010 Source: Census, BEA,and author’s calculations. Benton-Franklin ($12,400), Klickitat, Kitsap, Garfield, King. Spokane ($788) U.S. ($1,670)

The Regional Economy: Looking for Green Shoots Your are not here…yet..