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Dr. Michael Pakko Chief Economist and State Economic Forecaster Institute for Economic Advancement, UALR The Arkansas Economic Outlook October 15, 2014.

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Presentation on theme: "Dr. Michael Pakko Chief Economist and State Economic Forecaster Institute for Economic Advancement, UALR The Arkansas Economic Outlook October 15, 2014."— Presentation transcript:

1 Dr. Michael Pakko Chief Economist and State Economic Forecaster Institute for Economic Advancement, UALR The Arkansas Economic Outlook October 15, 2014 Disclaimer: The views expressed are my own, and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the Federal Reserve System, the University of Arkansas at Little Rock, the University of Arkansas System, or the Institute for Economic Advancement.

2 Arkansas’ Experience Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

3 Arkansas’ Experience Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

4 Arkansas’ Experience By some measures, Arkansas is faring better than the rest of the nation E.g., Personal Income, Proprietors’ Income, Dividends & Interest, etc. By other measures, Arkansas is lagging behind E.g., Employment, Wages and Salaries, Labor Force Participation Common element: Weak Labor Market Conditions (even weaker than we thought)

5 Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

6 Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

7 Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

8 Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

9 Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

10 Personal Income Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

11 Taxable Sales Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

12 Taxable Sales Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

13 Taxable Sales Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

14 Sources: Arkansas Realtors® Association, Institute for Economic Advancement. Home Sales

15 Sources: Arkansas Realtors® Association, Institute for Economic Advancement. Home Sales

16 Unemployment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

17 Unemployment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

18 Unemployment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

19 Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

20 Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

21 Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

22 Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

23 Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

24 Economic Forecasts "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." - Niels Bohr, Nobel prize-winning physicist.

25 Forecast Methodology Model: Arkansas Baseline from Moody’s Analytics.  Part of a structural econometric model of the U.S. Economy  Linked to US forecast, with relationships estimated by sector  Baseline forecast from Moody’s macroeconomic U.S. model Alternative Forecast Paths:  Moody’s  Wells Fargo  Wall Street Journal  Blue Chip Consensus  NABE

26 Employment Q4/Q4 Growth 2012 -0.9K -0.8% 2013 +7.2K +0.6% 2014 +12.5K +1.1% 2015 +24.6K +2.1% 2016 +24.2K +2.0%

27 Employment Q4/Q4 Growth 2012 -0.9K -0.8% 2013 -2.4K -0.2% 2014 +11.1K +0.9% 2015 +24.3K +2.1% 2016 +24.0K +2.0% Including expected revision in 2015

28 Employment Q4/Q4 Growth 2012 -0.9K -0.8% 2013 +7.2K +0.6% 2014 +12.5K +1.1% 2015 +24.6K +2.1% 2016 +24.2K +2.0% Q4/Q4 Growth 2012 -0.9K -0.8% 2013 -2.4K -0.2% 2014 +11.1K +0.9% 2015 +24.3K +2.1% 2016 +24.0K +2.0% As Published Expected Revision

29 Unemployment End of Year (Q4) 20137.5 20146.0 20155.5 20165.3

30 Real GDP

31 Q4/Q4 Growth (%) 2013 4.1 2014 1.5 2015 2.1 2016 2.0

32 Personal Income Q4/Q4 Growth (%) 2013 -1.9 2014 4.1 2015 5.4 2016 5.7

33 Retail Sales Q4/Q4 Growth (%) 20131.1 20140.6 20155.4 20165.6

34 Home Sales Sales (Pct. Change) 2012 23.3K -0.2% 2013 25.7K 10.1% 2014 27.8K 8.4% 2015 30.6K 9.9% 2016 32.4K 6.0%

35 Arkansas Economist For more information and analysis of the Arkansas Economy, visit the Arkansas Economist: www.arkansaseconomist.com

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