 The Future of Water Conflicts

What can you think of?  What factors can you think of that will affect the future water security of different countries?

Three alternative futures  In 2002 the International Food Policy and Research Institute decided to investigate the future scenarios of water  Read through each and decide what wider impacts these scenarios could have  Food supplies  Groundwater stores  Water projects

ScenarioWater change by 2025Wider Impacts Business as usual Water scarcity will reduce food production Consumption of water will rise by over 50% Household water use will increase by 70% Industrial water demands will increase in developing countries Water crisis Global water consumption will increase, mostly for irrigation Worldwide demand for domestic water will fall Demand for industrial water will increase by 33% over business as usual levels, yet industrial output remains the same Sustainable water Global water consumption and industrial water use will have to fall considerably Environmental flows could be increased dramatically compared to other scenarios Global rain-fed crop yields could increase due to improvements in water harvesting Agricultural and household water prices might double in developing countries and triple elsewhere

Responses to rising demands  Managing future water supplies will require action at a variety of levels, ranging from large-scale projects funded by the government down to changing consumer attitudes towards water use at a local level  There are three likely actions people will take

Hard engineering  Likely to be limited to developing countries in the future  Current global dam building costs are around $30 billion each year  Half of the world’s largest dams are built primarily for irrigation

Hard engineering  Economic costs  Tend to overrun costs by 50%  Water sales rarely cover the costs of water supplies  Ecological costs  Fragmented 6% of the world’s rivers  Many ecological impacts are not considered before construction  Social costs  Local communities are starved of development and welfare investment during construction  Can be severely disrupted  Displaced over 60 million people in SE Asia in the last four decades

Other options  River, lake and wetland restoration  Research current efforts to restore the Aral Sea (led by Kazakhstan)  Water conservation  Reducing demand rather than increasing supplies  More efficient farming practices (drip irrigation)  Recycling industrial water  Domestic water harvesting

Essay practice  Using named examples, assess the impact of using trans- boundary water sources on people and the environment. (15)  Rivers and aquifers  International or within countries (e.g. Colorado)  Winners and losers  Environment: depletion of stores could have consequences. saltwater incursions, pollution affecting water quality elsewhere, loss of an ecosystem  People: increased insecurity/security, political tensions, loss of economic activity