1. Climate Change and Its Effects on Water Quality and Quantity: The Escalating Need for Conflict Management

2. Introduction The number of trans-national conflicts over shared water resources will increase in the near future. This may be exacerbated by the impacts of global climate change.

3. Global Water Shortages 70% of the earth’s surface is covered by water. However, 97% of the world’s water is saline. Of the remaining 3%, 75% locked-up in glaciers and ice. 25% may be available.

4. Of the 25% that is available: 0.03% is in rivers 0.06% is in soils 0.3% is in lakes 11 % is in shallow groundwater (< 2500 foot depth) 14% is in deep groundwater (> 2500 foot depth)

6. Population growth: Increasing per capita demand: Per capita consumption: Increasing industrial use - need for economic development Increasing irrigated agriculture, especially in parts of world where water supplies may already be inadequate.

7. Reduction of Supplies Contamination of existing supplies (especially ground water) “Mining” of ground water (utilization of “fossil” ground water) Climate change - present global warming models indicate likelihood of:

8. Future shortages By 2025, 48 countries expected to face water supply shortages: Total population total of 2.8 billion people (35% of projected world population) will live under water short conditions.

9. By 2050 54 countries expected to face water shortages Total population of 4 billion people (40% of projected world population) will live under water short conditions

10. From Postel & Wolf, Dehydrating Conflict, Foreign Policy, October/November (2001).

11. Potential for conflict – National (continued): –Areas where conflict potential greatest Asia (60% of world population, 36% of renewable supplies of freshwater, heavily dependent on irrigation, future municipal supplies likely to come from irrigation water supplies) China, India, Iran and Pakistan (increasing depletion of groundwater, reduced or increasingly variable surface water flows, buildup of salts in soils, “zero- sum game” in water management)

12. Potential for conflict – International: –Situation: Nearly 100 countries share just 13 major rivers and lakes –In Africa alone there are some 50 rivers that are shared by two or more countries –Some 261 rivers cross international boundaries –These shared watersheds contain 60% of the world’s renewable supplies of freshwater –These watersheds also contain approximately 40% of the global population

13. From Postel & Wolf, Dehydrating Conflict, Foreign Policy, October/November (2001).

14. The Escalating Need for Conflict Management At both the national and the international levels, there will be increasing conflict among different water users. Such conflicts are never resolved. The need is for conflict management. Four key components

15. Four key components (continued) 1.Reduction of demand More efficient use of water resources (improved irrigation systems, municipal and industrial systems designed to minimize water requirements) Population stabilization

16. Four key components (continued) 2.Increase of supply Potential for desalinization (but must consider energy costs and waste disposal issues) Climate change may make additional water supplies available in some parts of the world

17. Four key components (continued) 3.Recognition and control of the destabilizing impacts of unilateral actions. 4.Development of new multilateral institutions