CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Page 1 Energy Policy Report Proceeding Docket 02-IEP-01 Staff Workshop Paper Publication F Sylvia Bender Demand Analysis Office California Energy Commission June 4, 2003 Energy Efficiency and Conservation: Trends and Policy Issues

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Page 2 Outline Consumption Trends Program Policy and Expenditure Trends Program Savings Trends Crisis Additional Electricity and Natural Gas Potential Remaining

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Page 3 Total Electricity Use per Capita

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Page 4 California Electricity Consumption per Capita by Sector

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Page 5 California Peak Demand per Capita by Sector

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Page 6 Electricity Consumption by Sector

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Page 7 Residential Peak by End-Use 2001

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Page 8 Commercial Peak by End-Use 2001

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Page 9 Major Components of Peak Demand (2001)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Page 10 Gas Consumption Breakdown 2001

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Page 11 Gas Consumption by Sector

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Page 12 Program Policy and Expenditure Trends Long history of expansion and contraction of funding levels due to policy shifts –Pre-Restructuring Period (Pre-1996) Integrated resource planning / resource acquisition –Restructuring Period ( ) Market transformation –Post-Restructuring Period (2001- ) Peak load emphasis Re-examination of policies

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Page 13 MW Impacts from Programs Begun Prior to 2001

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Page 14 Incremental MW Impacts from Programs Begun Prior to 2001

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Page Crisis Executive, legislative, and regulatory responses to crisis $850 million additional funding Peak demand reduced in 2001 average of 10.4% over summer months of 2000 Consumption down 6.7% from 2000 First-year savings estimated at 4.76 million MWh and 3,389 MW from 200+ programs

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Page 16 Additional Potential for Energy and Peak Demand Savings? Emerging technology potential Existing technology potential Conservation behavior potential

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Page 17 Summary of 10-Year Net Achievable Energy Efficiency Potential

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Page 18 Statewide Peak Electricity Demand Scenarios +3% -3% 2.14 % 1.62% 1.88 %

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Page 19 Natural Gas Demand Scenarios Low DSM 0.78% growth High DSM 0.67% growth Baseline Forecast 0.73% growth +0.55% -0.70%

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Page 20 Findings Buildings account for two-thirds of electricity consumption and three-fourths of peak Air conditioning dominates peak load, followed by commercial lighting, the miscellaneous categories for both residential and commercial, & residential refrigeration Uncertainty factor is higher for natural gas potential Higher spending has achieved higher savings Changes in behavior were very important in 2001 Additional achievable potential remains, but may be harder to get

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Page Electricity Consumption by Sector

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Page Electricity Peak by Sector

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Page 23 Commercial Natural Gas Demand by End-Use (2001)

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION Page 24 Residential Natural Gas Demand by End-Use (2001)