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ELECTRICITY SOURCES Twenty five percent of the state’s electricity comes from out-of-state generation.

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Presentation on theme: "ELECTRICITY SOURCES Twenty five percent of the state’s electricity comes from out-of-state generation."— Presentation transcript:

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2 ELECTRICITY SOURCES Twenty five percent of the state’s electricity comes from out-of-state generation

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9 CALIFORNIA SUMMER 2001 Forecasted Peak Demand - Resource Balance (in megawatts) Temperature Probability1-in-10 Peak Demand + 7% Reserve61,125Incl. Anticipated growth Existing Resources: * Existing ISO Control Area Resources45,025 * Net Imports ISO Control Area 4,834Includes Pacific Northwest * LADWP Control Area Resources 8,198 * Imperial Irrigation District 875 * Far North - Eastern Sierras 277 Total Existing Resources59,209 Expected Outages-3,050* *Historic Average. Current outages are running 250% above average. Resources Available to Meet Load -4,966 Additional Resources with On-Line Potential for July 2001: * Approved CEC Projects 1,262 * SMUD McLellan CT Upgrade 22 * ISO Peaking Facilities 1,133 * Renewable Energy Projects 80 * Rerate/Restart of Existing Thermal and Renewable Projects 1,244 Potential Resources Existing Projects 3,741 New Generation with On-Line Potential for July 2001: Emergency Peaking Facilities 1,000 CEC Approval Pending 45 (United Golden Gate) LADWP Harbor-Valley 267 New Renewables/Distrib. Gen. ? Total New Generation Identified 1,312 TOTAL GENERATION ADDITIONS SUMMER 2001 5,053 Source: CA Energy Commission and Electricity Oversight BoardFebruary 8,2001

10 Petroleum Technology Transfer Center March 15, 2001 Natural Gas Prices z U.S. prices at Henry Hub, LA increased from $2.00 to $5.00 per MMBtu y Peaked $10/MMBtu z California impacted heavier z Other regions closely match Henry Hub

11 Petroleum Technology Transfer Center March 15, 2001 U.S. Gas Prices and Drilling Rigs z Low gas prices over the past decade y Lower incentive to drill z Higher prices since late 1999 have resulted in additional drilling activity Monthly U.S. Wellhead Natural Gas Price vs Active Gas Drilling Rigs Jul-87 to Jan-01 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Jul-87Jul-88Jul-89Jul-90Jul-91Jul-92Jul-93Jul-94Jul-95Jul-96Jul-97Jul-98Jul-99Jul-00 Number of Rigs 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 $ per McF Rig CountUS Wellhead Prices

12 Petroleum Technology Transfer Center March 15, 2001 2010 Forecasted California Natural Gas Demand MMcfd

13 California Electric Generation

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15 Daily Peak Loads California ISO Control Area January 1999 - July 2000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 01/01/199902/01/199903/01/199904/01/199905/01/199906/01/199907/01/199908/01/199909/01/199910/01/199911/01/199912/01/199901/01/200002/01/200003/01/200004/01/200005/01/200006/01/200007/01/2000 MW July 12, 1999 45,574 MW June 14, 2000 43,447 MW

16 Statewide Peak Demand (MW) by Sector and End-Use


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