1. Meeting with the Demand Analysis Working Group (DAWG)
Energy Efficiency Potentials and Targets for California’s Publically Owned Utilities (POUs)
Meeting with the Demand Analysis Working Group (DAWG)
Tony Andreoni, CMUA
Greg Wikler and Jack Cullen, Navigant
September 25, 2014

2. Table of Contents
1 » Background
2 » The Approach
3 » The Results

3. Background
Navigant and its Predecessor Summit Blue have conducted the POU assessments of Energy Efficiency Potentials and Targets both in 2009 and 2012
The 2009 assessment included all of California POUs except for SMUD and LADWP
The 2012 assessment included all of the California POUs except for LADWP
The assessments were designed to meet the requirements of Assembly Bill 2021 (Levine, 2006), which directed the CEC every three years to identify all potentially achievable cost-effective electricity and natural gas efficiency savings and establish 10-year statewide energy efficiency savings targets.

4. Table of Contents
1 » Background
2 » The Approach
3 » The Results

5. The Approach
Modeling Approach
Utilized Navigant’s Energy Efficiency Resource Assessment Model (EERAM)
Navigant worked with each individual utility to obtain the utility and customer characteristics.
Navigant utilized the DEER database for energy efficiency savings and cost data as its primary measure impact and cost source.
Utility workpapers were used as a secondary measure impact and cost source.
The statewide residential and commercial sector end-use surveys were utilized to supplement each utility’s customer information

6. Energy Efficiency Resource Assessment Model (EERAM)
The Approach
Energy Efficiency Resource Assessment Model (EERAM)
This version of EERAM was also used to develop the 2012 Phase 1 efficiency goals and targets for the California Investor Owned Utilities
EERAM is an Excel spreadsheet model designed to estimate technical, economic, and market energy efficiency potential for a utility‘s service area.
The model utilizes a bottoms-up approach, using utility building stocks and equipment saturations, utility forecasts, DSM measure impacts and costs, and past utility program accomplishments.

7. Energy Efficiency Resource Assessment Model (EERAM)
The Approach
Energy Efficiency Resource Assessment Model (EERAM)
Provides year by year forecast estimates of Technical, Economic, and Market Potential
Provides output by building type (residential, commercial, and industrial), both existing and new construction
Provides output by 22 different end-use categories
Incorporates Emerging Technologies
Incorporates the effects of Codes and Standards and for the measures included, estimates the savings from Codes and Standards

8. Table of Contents
1 » Background
2 » The Approach
3 » The Results

9. Incremental Energy Savings Targets, 2014-2023
The Results
10-Year Energy Efficiency Targets (Including LADWP)
Incremental Energy Savings Targets,

10. Ten Year Total: Sum of Annual Targets, 2014-2023
The Results
Ten Year Total: Sum of Annual Targets,
Utility
10-Year Summation of Incremental Impact (MWh)
Average Annual Incremental Savings % of Sales Forecast
LADWP
3,774,898
1.40%
SMUD
1,807,337
1.50%
Anaheim
249,353
1.01%
Silicon Valley
216,411
0.66%
Riverside
215,317
1.00%
Imperial
197,022
0.57%
Modesto
182,491
0.67%
Turlock
134,049
0.61%
Pasadena
127,500
Glendale
120,780
1.07%
Burbank
116,574
0.89%
Roseville
78,344
0.64%
Vernon
66,430
0.51%
Palo Alto
65,855
0.63%
SF PUC
37,201
0.35%
Top 2 Total
5,582,235
1.43%
Remaining Top 13 of 15 Total
1,807,327
0.79%
Remaining 25 Total
202,303
0.56%
California POU Total
7,591,865
1.26%

11. 10 Year Targets as % of Sales Overall impact about 1.26% of sales
The Results
10 Year Targets as % of Sales
Overall impact about 1.26% of sales
The share of sales is correlated to the size of the utility reflecting issues such as staffing limitations
SMUD & LADWP ~1.43% of sales
The next 13 of the top 15 ~0.79% of sales
The remaining smaller 25 utilities ~0.56% of sales

12. Questions?
Questions?