1. California Energy Commission Plug Loads in the Residential and Commercial Forecasts June 18, 2015 Tom Gorin Energy Assessments Division Tom.Gorin@energy.ca.gov 1

2. California Energy Commission About the Forecasts Energy Commission develops energy forecasts for multiple sectors, including residential and commercial Forecasts for residential and commercial buildings are end-use based –23 for residential buildings, 10 for commercial buildings Many of these end uses can be considered “plug loads” –15 for residential buildings, 4 for commercial buildings –Does not include HVAC, water heating, or any lighting (integrated or otherwise) –All forecasted plug loads are end uses; not all end uses are plug loads 2

3. California Energy Commission How Do Plug Loads Fit into the Forecast? Certain plug loads are specifically tracked and used by the residential and commercial forecast models. –Examples: clothes dryers, televisions, refrigerators, room AC Other plug loads fall under the miscellaneous category –Examples: residential computers and office equipment, electric power tools, kilns, welders, medical equipment Total plug load = “Specified” + “Miscellaneous” 3

4. California Energy Commission Residential Sector Forecast 4

5. California Energy Commission Commercial Building Sector Forecast 5

6. California Energy Commission Specified plug loads are function of: –Residential sector: Residential appliance use intensity, appliance saturations and economic /demographic drivers. –Commercial sector: End-use intensity per square foot derived from building simulation analysis. Specified plug load growth is tempered by various end-use appliance standards. For additional information see the Demand Forecast Methods Report http://www.energy.ca.gov/2005publications/CEC-400-2005- 036/CEC-400-2005-036.PDF http://www.energy.ca.gov/2005publications/CEC-400-2005- 036/CEC-400-2005-036.PDF Plug-in lighting is not treated as plug load in either the residential or commercial models. 6 “Specified” Plug Loads in the Forecast

7. California Energy Commission “Miscellaneous” Plug Load in the Forecast The miscellaneous end-use category attempts to account for all other unspecified appliances (which are assumed to be plug loads). For residential, “miscellaneous” growth is a function of price, income and persons per household up to 1998 and a constant growth rate from 1998 through 2026. –Better data on plug loads and growth patterns is needed in order to provide a more reliable estimate for future forecasts. Commercial, “miscellaneous” growth is similar to the forecasted growth rate of the office equipment end use. 7

8. California Energy Commission Residential Energy Growth (sum of PG&E, SCE, SDG&E, LADWP and SMUD planning areas) 8 Miscellaneous accounts for 86% of 2013-2026 residential energy growth

9. California Energy Commission Residential non-coincident Peak Growth (sum of PG&E, SCE, SDG&E, LADWP and SMUD planning areas) 9 Miscellaneous accounts for 42% of 2013-2026 residential peak growth

10. California Energy Commission Commercial Energy Growth (sum of PG&E, SCE, SDG&E, LADWP and SMUD planning areas) 10 Miscellaneous accounts for 38% of 2013-2026 commercial energy growth

11. California Energy Commission Commercial non-coincident Peak Growth (sum of PG&E, SCE, SDG&E, LADWP and SMUD planning areas) 11 Miscellaneous accounts for 26% of 2013-2026 commercial peak growth

12. California Energy Commission Plug Load Findings The following findings are based on the CED 2015 preliminary mid- case forecast for residential and commercial sectors. Plug loads make up a greater portion of annual energy consumption than peak energy consumption. Peak consumption is dominated by air conditioning rather than plug loads. Plug loads make up a greater portion of residential peak and annual energy than in the commercial sector. Differences in planning area results are driven by planning area specific building stock, household and appliance mix as well as climate. Plug loads account for virtually all of the 2013-2026 residential energy consumption growth, caused by an increasing growth forecast for “miscellaneous.” 12

13. California Energy Commission Total Plug load contribution to Planning Area Peak and Energy 13

14. California Energy Commission Additional Analysis Need more recent representative data and analysis to update the calculation of miscellaneous end uses. –Possible role for short-interval AMI data and disaggregation algorithms instead of surveys Current analysis relies on existing commercial and residential surveys, which are dated given the rapid change in technologies. –Most recent residential survey (RASS) is from 2008 –Most recent commercial survey (CEUS) is from 2003 14

15. California Energy Commission Questions? 15

16. California Energy Commission Back-Up Slides (Planning Area Results) 16

17. California Energy Commission PG&E Planning Area Sector Results Plug loads contribution to peak: –30-32% of commercial building sector peak –39-41% of residential sector peak. –42% of commercial sector peak growth (2013 to 2026) –49% of residential sector peak growth (2013 to 2026). Plug loads contribution to electric consumption: – 41-43% of commercial sector consumption. – 69-74% of residential sector consumption. –55% of commercial sector consumption growth (2013 to 2026). –95% of residential sector consumption growth (2013 to 2026). 17

18. California Energy Commission PG&E Sector Results 18

19. California Energy Commission SCE Planning Area Results Plug load contribution to peak: –14-15% of commercial building sector peak –37-41% of residential sector peak. –21% of commercial sector peak growth (2013 to 2026) –57% of residential sector peak growth (2013 to 2026). Plug load contribution to electric consumption: –20-22% of commercial sector consumption. –71-77% of residential sector consumption. –33% of commercial sector consumption growth (2013 to 2026). –104% of residential sector consumption growth (2013 to 2026). Caused by greater declining consumption in HVAC, water heating and lighting. 19

20. California Energy Commission SCE Sector Results 20 Peak(MW) Energy (Gwh) 20132026 2013-2026 MW growth20132026 2013-2026 Gwh growth commercialspecified plug loads228308791,9742,463488 miscellaneous8381,1563185,4957,0211,526 total plug loads1,0671,4643977,4699,4832,015 commercial bldg total7,5729,4481,87637,71543,7496,034 % of commercial bldg total specified plug loads3% 4% 5%6%8% miscellaneous11%12%17%15%16%25% total plug loads14%15%21%20%22%33% residentialspecified plug loads2,4802,779299 13,30714,078771 miscellaneous9271,8238967,16513,0685,903 total plug loads3,4074,6021,19520,47227,1466,674 residential total9,08611,1772,09128,98635,4276,442 % of residential total specified plug loads27%25%14% 46%40%12% miscellaneous10%16%43%25%37%92% total plug loads37%41%57%71%77%104% Caused by decline in HVAC, Lighting and Water Heating

21. California Energy Commission SDG&E Planning Area Results Plug load contribution to peak: –15-17% of commercial building sector peak –45-47% of residential sector peak. –31% of commercial sector peak growth (2013 to 2026) –37% of residential sector peak growth (2013 to 2026). Plug load contribution to electric consumption: – 20-23% of commercial sector consumption. – 76-80% of residential sector consumption. –34% of commercial sector consumption growth (2013 to 2026). –97% of residential sector consumption growth (2013 to 2026). 21

22. California Energy Commission SDG&E Sector Results 22

23. California Energy Commission LADWP Planning Area Results Plug load contribution to peak: –22-25% of commercial building sector peak –56-65% of residential sector peak. –34% of commercial sector peak growth (2013 to 2026) –130% of residential sector peak growth (2013 to 2026). Caused projected housing type mix and its impact on decline of HVAC, water heating and lighting. Plug load contribution to electric consumption: – 30-34% of commercial sector consumption. – 73-81% of residential sector consumption. –57% of commercial sector consumption growth (2013 to 2026). –118% of residential sector consumption growth (2013 to 2026). Similar to peak reasons. 23

24. California Energy Commission LADWP Sector Results 24

25. California Energy Commission SMUD Planning Area Results Plug loads contribution to peak: –25-28% of commercial building sector peak –36-41% of residential sector peak. –40% of commercial sector peak growth (2013 to 2026) –59% of residential sector peak growth (2013 to 2026). Plug loads contribution to electric consumption: – 34-37% of commercial sector consumption. – 61-68% of residential sector consumption. –53% of commercial sector consumption growth (2013 to 2026). –91% of residential sector consumption growth (2013 to 2026). 25

26. California Energy Commission SMUD Sector Results 26