1 Conference of European Statisticians Seminar: Impact of the Global Crisis on Statistical Systems Paris, June 2010 Session 3: Social and household statistics Organiser: Paul Schreyer OECD Statistics Directorate

2 Introduction Session 3 Invited Papers: Monitoring social change and the task of social statistics: development in the Netherlands (Paul van der Laan and Wim van Nunspeet, CBS Netherlands) The Swedish Economy During two Crises (Petter Hällberg and Krister Näsén, Statistics Sweden) Lessons Derived form the Crisis for Social Statistics (Inna Steinbuka, Eurostat)

3 Introducing the papers (1) Van der Laan & van Nunspeet Background –Three economic stimulus packages in the NLD since Nov 2008 (total of 2% of GDP) –Social stimulus measures (part-time unemployment benefits, wage subsidies etc) Questions posed by authors –Has traditional rapid information from social statistics been adequate to monitor effects of crisis and stimulus packages? –Is more short-term information needed in areas for which low-frequency social information prevails, such as living standards, well-being?

4 Introducing the papers (2) Van der Laan & van Nunspeet Response: –Most data needs could be fulfilled with existing statistics –But some shortcomings became apparent and led to a quest for: (1) greater detail in some areas (e.g. group of young people, own-account workers) (2) more information on dynamics of income, labour markets etc.: can we follow individuals over time? (3) revisiting the scope of social statistics: are we measuring what really matters to people?

5 Introducing the papers (3) Petter Hällberg and Krister Näsén Comparison of Sweden in 2 crises (early 1990s & current crisis) on the basis of LFS Interesting conclusion: from a labour market perspective, the current crisis has been less severe than the 1990 crisis But also interesting demonstration of the usefulness of dynamic data Consider graph with simple static data on unemployment

6 Unemployed per 1000 persons (16-64), Sweden

7 Introducing the papers (4) Interesting, but static data only tells part of the story For instance, static data provides no information on transition probabilities: how likely is it to become unemployed if one is employed, outside the labour force, a man/woman etc? Authors show dynamic data

8 Example for dynamic data: transition rates to unemployment during 2 crises in Sweden On average, lower probability of unemployment now than in early 1990s But not for people over 55 years of age  Disaggregated dynamic data tells different story about vulnerability than static data

9 Introducing the papers (5) Inna Steinbuka - Eurostat Deals with crisis-related issues addressed by social statisticians in the European Statistical System Key European statistics –Quarterly EU LFS –Labour market Principal European Indicators

10 Introducing the papers (6) Inna Steinbuka - Eurostat Generally of good quality but: –Make better use of available data (e.g., analyse impact of crisis on specific groups of the population) –Improve timeliness and flexibility: a lag of 2 to 3 years for some annual data (income, poverty social protection) is too long Improving timeliness: –Better coordination of fieldwork periods in member countries –Sharing tool and processes between countries –Exploit more fully potential of administrative data –Sub-samples for quick key indicators Extending scope of existing data collections –More info on demand side of labour market

11 Common messages Overall, social statistics did their job during the crises But more detail needed in some areas And shorter lags in other areas Dynamic and panel data are key for many analytical purposes Scope of social statistics may need revisiting and expanding, for example to consider subjective data Increase flexibility of data collection and processing

12 Questions…Dutch paper The paper mentions changes in the infrastructure of household survey to increase its flexibility – please provide some more information The paper advocates a broader scope of social statistics to include also subjective data (feelings, opinions etc.). This is important because citizens will find that their views are recognised and voiced. Is there also a demand from analysts and policy makers for such data?

13 Question…Swedish paper What are the statistical lessons you draw from comparing the two crises – has the present crisis given rise to different statistical challenges from the crisis in the early 1990s?

14 Question…Eurostat paper The paper mentions the idea that well-established short-term surveys such as the LFS function as rapid response tools during a crisis (integration of additional questions e.g. on income). Has this idea been discussed with Member countries – what has been their reaction? Have any other foreward-looking measures been discussed in the ESS to ensure responsiveness when the next crisis arises, very probably in a different area?

15 Thank you for your attention!