1. Assessing the social impact of the crisis in the European Union
Terry Ward,
Applica sprl
International Seminar on Early Warning and Business Cycle Indicators
Scheveningen, The Netherlands
14-16 December, 2009

2. Objectives and data sources
Aims:
To identify social groups most affected by the crisis
To assess how far protected by social welfare system
Difficulties:
Lag in effect of economic downturn on employment
Lag in data becoming available
Data sources (in EU):
Monthly unemployment statistics
Quarterly Labour Force Survey
Short-term business statistics – production + employment by detailed sector
Data on large enterprise restructuring (European Restructuring Monitor)
Missing short-term sources:
Social protection statistics on payment of benefits
Detailed unemployment statistics – on characteristics of those registering
Data on those losing their jobs – or having earnings cut

3. Approach
To review past economic downturns and their effects on different social groups – to identify what might be expected
Means in practice early 1990s and early 2000s for some countries
Difficult to go back earlier, but probably less relevant
To examine early stages of present recession to see whether same features evident – despite difference in origin of crisis
Mainly on basis of EU Labour Force Survey and Short-term business statistics
To assess extent of income support provided by social welfare system in EU Member States
On basis of EU-SILC – but only data on income for for all EU countries
Starting-point – review of downturn in EU in early 1990s …

4. Employment developments relative to working-age population in 1990-94 downturn

5. Employment of men most affected during 1990-94 downturn

6. Young people under 25 affected even more

7. Older men aged 55-64 also affected

8. But women much less affected – though upward employment trend halted

9. Downturn in early 2000s affected only some countries – men + young people mostly

10. Employment rate of under 25s only slightly affected at EU level – constant since

11. Employment of 55-64 age group not affected at all – upward trend since later 1990s

12. Present crisis – limited effect on employment up to mid-2009 with marked exceptions

13. Men again affected most

14. Only marginal decline in employment of women – though large in some countries

15. Young people also affected as in past – though more reflected in unemployment

16. Older men less affected than in early 1990s – though decline in some countries

17. Upward trend in employment of older women has continued though at slower rate

18. Decline in output not yet reflected in employment – especially in some sectors

19. Short-time working scheme in Germany has maintained jobs to major extent

20. % of unemployed aged 25-59 receiving income support by months unemployed:

21. % aged 18-24 with income below 60% of median by months of unemployment:

22. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION