Peak Oil Arabic scholar Ibn Khaldun ( ) regarded "group solidarity" as the primary requisite for civilization. "Civilization needs the tribal values to survive, but these very same values are destroyed by civilization. Specifically, urban civilization destroys tribal values with the luxuries that weaken kinship and community ties and with the artificial wants for new types of cuisine, new fashions in clothing, larger homes, and other novelties of urban life."

Adaptive Cycle Exploitation –Connectedness low –External variability provides opportunities and constraints –Opportunists Conservation

Adaptive Cycle Creative destruction –Collapse –Potential released Reorganization –Potential high –Connectedness low –Internal regulation low –Uncertainty high –Novelty high

Complexity Ultimately a growing society reaches a point where continued investment in complexity yields higher returns, but at a declining marginal rate. Costs are increasing, but the benefits have actually declined to those previously available at a lower level of complexity. This is a realm of negative returns to investment in complexity.

Civilizations The 'reference runs' of two world simulation models in the 1970s put the life expectancy of civilization between about 100 and 200 years. The Olduvai theory is specifically defined as the ratio of world energy production and world population. It states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to 100 years: from 1930 to 2030.

Modern Civilization=High Energy

Oil Pesticides are made from oil; Commercial fertilizers are made from ammonia, which is made from natural gas, which will peak about 10 years after oil peaks; With the exception of a few experimental prototypes, all farming implements such as tractors and trailers are constructed and powered using oil; Food storage systems such as refrigerators are manufactured in oil- powered plants, distributed across oil-powered transportation networks and usually run on electricity, which most often comes from natural gas or coal; In the US, the average piece of food is transported almost 1,500 miles before it gets to your plate. In Canada, the average piece of food is transported 5,000 miles from where it is produced to where it is consumed

Oil Transportation Modern medicine Water distribution National defense Plastics All computers and all high-tech devices.

Figure 1 shows the historic world oil production data from 1960 to 1999 and our forecasts from 2000 to Note that the overall growth rate of oil production slowed from 1960 to 1999 (curve 1). Past: –The average rate of growth from 1960 to 1973 was a whopping 6.65%/year. –Next, from 1973 to 1979 growth slowed to 1.49%/year. –Then, from 1979 to 1999, it slowed yet further to a glacial 0.75%/year. Predictions: –Forecast #5 predicts that world oil production will reach its all-time peak in –Then from its peak in 2006 to year 2040 world oil production will fall by 58.8 % - an average decline of 2.45%/year during these 34 years.

Peak Oil Figure 2 shows the world average oil production per capita from 1920 to The curve represents the ratio of world oil production (O) and world population (Pop): i.e. ô = O/(Pop) in barrels per capita per year (i.e. b/c/year). ô grew exponentially from 1920 to Next, growth was negligible from 1973 to the all- time peak in Finally, from its peak in 1979 to 1999, ô decreased at an average rate of 1.20%/year (i.e. from 5.50 b/c in 1979 to 4.32 b/c in 1999).

Peak Oil Eight Events: The 1st event in 1930 marks the beginning of Industrial Civilization when ê reached 3.32 boe/c. This is the "leading 30% point", a standard way to define the duration of a pulse. The 2nd event in 1979 marks the all-time peak of world energy production per capita when ê reached boe/c. The 3rd event in 1999 marks the end of cheap oil. The 4th event on September 28, 2000 marks the eruption of violence in the Middle East - i.e. the "Jerusalem Jihad". Moreover, the "JJ" marks the end of the Olduvai "slope" wherein ê declined at 0.33%/year from 1979 to 1999.

Peak Oil The 5th event in 2006 marks the all-time peak of world oil production. The 6th event in 2008 marks the OPEC crossover event when the 11 OPEC nations produce 51% of the world's oil and control nearly 100% of the world's oil exports. The 7th event in 2012 begins when an epidemic of permanent blackouts spreads worldwide, i.e. first there are waves of brownouts and temporary blackouts, then finally the electric power networks themselves expire. The 8th event in 2030 marks the fall of world energy production (use) per capita to the 1930 level. This is the lagging 30% point when Industrial Civilization has become history. The average rate of decline of ê is 5.44%/year from 2012 to 2030.

US Economy The US economy is particularly vulnerable to the coming oil shocks as we consume a greater proportion of the world's oil than any other nation. The unparalleled prosperity experienced in this country during the last 100 years was built entirely on cheap oil. –Oil was discovered in 1859 but did not become a truly important industrial fuel until Henry Ford began mass producing automobiles in the early 1900s. –The mass production of automobiles became a cornerstone of the US economy while allowing people to move out of the cities and into the suburbs. ( in 7 jobs) The expansion of the suburbs fueled the real estate and housing booms of the 20th century, which in turn fueled the US steel, copper, construction, etc. industries. A system of finance sprung up that facilitated these booms while simultaneously becoming dependent on them.

Peak Oil The reason our leaders are telling us the "war on terror will last 50 years" and that the U.S. engagement in the Middle East is now a "generational commitment" is two-fold: –All the countries accused of harboring terrorists - Iraq, Iran, Syria, West Africa, Saudi Arabia - also happen to harbor large oil reserves. –Within years, even these countries will see their oil reserves almost entirely depleted. At that point, the "war on terror" will come to an end.