Briefing for Transportation Finance Panel Nov 23, 2015 Economic Analysis Reports: 1.I-84 Viaduct in Hartford 2.I-84/Rt8 Mixmaster in Waterbury 3.New Haven Rail Line

Economic analyses 1 & 2 1.I-84 Viaduct in Hartford 2.I-84/Rt8 Mixmaster in Waterbury Both projects are ‘must do’ projects near the end of their life expectancy. Both are too important to let deteriorate to unsafe & unusable conditions. Purpose of Analyses: intended to measure value of the facilities & the economic impacts of disinvestment. 2

I-84: Hartford Viaduct & Waterbury Mixmaster 3 cost: $5.3 billion cost: $7.2 billion

4 Deterioration & Closure ( worst case or ‘ disinvestment’ ) Assumptions: Minor capital projects & increased O&M keep Viaduct open for another decade. Viaduct closed in From , no traffic is allowed to use the Viaduct. Traffic forced to alternate highways & local streets. More congestion, more wasted time, longer travel distances. Full Replacement (assumes lowered highway alternative) Assumptions: Larger capital project keeps the current facilities open until New facility opens in Compared to the “worst case” or closure scenario the facility remains open for full study period. No diversions or detours New facility designed to reduce congestion & accidents Full Replacement vs. Deterioration & Closure same comparative analysis for both Viaduct & Mixmaster

I-84 Viaduct in Hartford

6 ¾ mile elevated highway built in 1965 (50-yr design life) large traffic volume (175,000 daily) highly congested must reconstruct or replace 1960s design: resulted in operational & accident problems (acc. rate = 4X state average) divided & disrupted the city, neighborhoods, & street grid

Benefit/Cost Analysis: comparing user & societal benefits to project costs Hartford Viaduct:

Benefit/Cost Analysis: Long-term Costs & Benefits 8 1. Future costs & benefits are discounted to present value 2. Benefits are primarily ‘user’ benefits like travel time savings, lower accident costs, & improved travel time reliability. Hartford Viaduct:

BCA: Personal vs Business Travel Benefits Only (in $2015) 9 Trip Purpose Vehicle Operating Costs Travel Time & Other Costs Present Value Total Personal & Commute$0.51 billion$6.06 billion$6.56 billion Business & Freight$0.20 billion$2.46 billion$2.65 billion Total Benefits$0.71 billion$8.52 billion$9.22 billion (1) All future benefits discounted to present value or current Hartford Viaduct: About 28% of benefits go to business & industry.

Economic Impact Analysis: Measuring the impact of the project on economic growth in CT Hartford Viaduct:

Economic Impact Analysis (EIA) Long-Term Economic Growth Cumulative increase from Hartford Viaduct: Values in each column are not additive. GSP & Wages are components of Business Sales

EIA: Short-Term Construction Impacts 12 Hartford Viaduct:

EIA: Short & Long-Term Job Impacts 13 Hartford Viaduct:

I-84 Mixmaster in Waterbury

15 I-84 Mixmaster in Waterbury major interchange of I-84 & Route 8 Built in 1960s: CT’s only ‘double- decked’ highway 130,000+ vehicles daily must reconstruct or replace about $7 billion to replace

Benefit/Cost Analysis: comparing user & societal benefits to project costs Waterbury Mixmaster:

BCA: Long-term Costs & Benefits Waterbury Mixmaster Future costs & benefits are discounted to present value 2. Benefits are primarily ‘user’ benefits like travel time savings, lower accident costs, & improved travel time reliability. Waterbury Mixmaster:

18 Trip Purpose Vehicle Operating Costs Travel Time & Other CostsTotal Personal & Commute$0.20 billion$5.52 billion $5.71 billion Business & Freight$0.10 billion$2.40 billion $2.50 billion Total Benefits$0.31 billion$7.92 billion $8.22 billion (1) All future benefits discounted to present value or current Waterbury Mixmaster: About 30% of benefits go to business & industry. BCA: Personal vs Business Travel Benefits Only (in $2015)

Economic Impact Analysis: Measuring the impact of the project on economic growth in CT Waterbury Mixmaster:

EIA: Long-Term Economic Growth Cumulative increase from Waterbury Mixmaster: Values in each column are not additive. GSP & Wages are components of Business Sales

EIA: Short-Term Construction Impacts 21 Waterbury Mixmaster: Values in each column are not additive. GSP & Wages are components of Business Sales

EIA: Short & Long-Term Job Impacts 22 Waterbury Mixmaster:

Hartford Viaduct & Waterbury Mixmaster Side-by-Side Comparison 23 Economic analyses demonstrate positive economic returns for both of these ‘must do’ projects. Replacing these critical but aging structures is essential to CT’s economy Yields large benefits to users who depend on I-84 Supports economic growth and avoids economic losses that would result from letting them deteriorate to unsafe & unusable condition.

24 BCA: Benefits to Users vs Cost Large benefits to users & good B/C ratios

EIA: Impacts to CT’s Economy 25 Contribution to:ViaductMixmaster Combined Impact Business Sales (Output) $10.2 Billion $8.8 Billion $19.0 Billion Potential Losses to CT’s Economy if structures are allowed to deteriorate (versus being replaced) Combined economic impact of $19 billion

New Haven Line Economic analysis of more frequent & faster service

New Haven Rail Line Serves a critical economic function o links CT directly to NYC o reliable & convenient rail service within CT in severely congested highway corridor. o 80,000 daily riders Ownership & operation o NHL commuter service operates 75 miles from New Haven to NYC o CT owns 49 miles (New Haven to NY) o Metro North (MNRR) operates NHL for CT

New Haven Rail Line (NHL) Infrastructure Preservation Most of the line is 4 tracks (but frequent repairs limit use to 2-3) Rail preservation program in Let’s Go CT will restore the NHL infrastructure to a good state of repair (full use of 4 tracks) preservation costs not included in this service expansion analysis Service Improvement Proposal Let’s Go CT includes $2 billion for ‘improved’ service on NHL Goals: o more frequent service o faster service (especially express trains)

New Haven Rail Line (NHL) Improved Service Concept (2+2 track configuration) local trains (outside tracks) express trains (inside tracks) local trains (outside tracks) express trains (inside tracks) center island platforms Use full 4-track capacity Express trains travel unimpeded by locals, but stop only at major stations Reduced travel times More frequent service Local trains stop at all or most stations Greatly increased frequency of service

Base Case Existing Service Levels Build Case 2+2 Service Improvement Rail Current rail service configuration, with future growth assumptions Restored 4-track capability plus Reconfiguration for 2+2 service Highway Current capital program minor capacity improvements with future traffic growth assumptions Current capital program, same as baseline, but expect to see congestion relief from diversion to faster & more frequent rail New Haven Line: Improved service vs. Existing service levels

1.“Existing” Rail & Bus Users: Travel time savings for existing rail and bus users Reliability improvements for existing rail users 2.“New” Rail Users: (many diverted from highways) Travel time savings 3.Highway Users: Travel time, reliability, & vehicle operating cost o benefits to drivers who remain on the road & do not divert to rail Safety, logistics, and environmental benefits Types of ‘Users’ & ‘User Benefits’

Highway impacts: Improved rail service will attract some drivers out of their cars & into trains Diversion of drivers to rail is expected to reduce highway delays by:  about 5 million hours annually. Highway User Benefits

Benefit/Cost Analysis: comparing user & societal benefits to project costs New Haven Line Service Improvements:

Benefit/Cost Analysis: Long-term Costs & Benefits New Haven Line 2+2 Service Improvements 1. Future costs & benefits are discounted to present value 2. Benefits are primarily ‘user’ benefits like travel time savings, lower accident costs, & improved travel time reliability.

35 Trip Purpose Vehicle Operating Costs Travel Time & Other Costs Total Benefits (1) ‘Existing’ Rail Users $5.37 billion ‘New’ Rail Users $0.95 billion Highway Users $1.10 billion $2.29 billion $3.39 billion Total Benefits$1.10 billion$8.63 billion$9.71 billion (1) All future benefits discounted to present value or current New Haven Line: BCA: by type of user Benefits Only (in $2015) About 35% of benefits go highway users.

Economic Impact Analysis: Measuring the impact of the project on economic growth in CT New Haven Line Service Improvements:

Economic Impact Analysis (EIA) Long-Term Economic Growth Cumulative increase from

Economic Impact Analysis (EIA) Short-Term or “Construction” Impacts

EIA: Short & Long-Term Job Impacts 39

SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS New Haven Rail Line serves a critical economic function Investing the New Haven Line is a good economic strategy as well as a sound transportation policy Reconfiguring tracks & services to operate on 2 express & 2 local tracks yields a strong economic return $2 billion state investment : – Returns $2.50 for every $1.00 invested (B/C ratio = 2.51) Over $9 billion in benefits to highway users as well as rail users – Grows CT economy by $6.2 billion in business sales & output