Where does my electricity come from? Creating generation mixes

What information do I need? 1. Type of nearby generators (Power plants, dams, windmills, solar arrays) 2. Proportion – amount of total generation made up by each type (40% type A, 30% type B, 30% type C) Generally state lines used as borders

Guesses for Pennsylvania?

Solar Intensity

Wind Intensity

Precipitation

Coal Deposits

US Generation Mix Other: Solar, Wind, Biomass, Geothermal, etc

Guesses for Pennsylvania?

Pennsylvania Generation Mix

Is that the whole story? What if power plants near me don’t generate enough electricity to meet my needs? Pennsylvania does, but what about California and New York?

Include Interstate Trading Lots of electricity transfer in the United States, especially following deregulation in 1996 Currently, interstate electricity transfer ignored, but it’s a big part of the market  25% of California power is imported  West Virginia exports 70% of theirs These numbers have a significant impact, so new generation mixes, which include trading, are created for each state

Where Does the Electricity Come From? Net Imports (TWh) Source: EPA eGrid

California Distances

Import-Export Model: Linear Optimization Classic transportation/distribution problem Using two matrices of data (27 x 27) 1. Distances from exporters to importers 2. Shipments of power from exporters to importers Minimize the sum-product of these matrices The “cost” of moving electricity from exporters to importers Subject to the following constraint All electricity in system needs to be “used” – each row/column in shipments matrix must sum to net surplus/deficit calculated from EPA data By changing the amounts in the shipments matrix

Completed Optimization Showing Electricity Transactions (Shipments) in TWh

California Transfers

The California Consumption Mix NOTE: Exporting states retain their original generation mixes